Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FGUS73 KLMK 251850
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INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-KYC001-003-005-009-
017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-073-079-085-087-091-093-103-
111-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-209-211-
213-215-217-223-229-239-021200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
249 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  06/23/2015 - 09/21/2015

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Barren River
Bowling Green       28.0   32.0   45.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Blue River
Fredericksburg      20.0   24.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton             22.0   29.0   36.0 :   6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Green River
Brownsville         18.0   32.0   41.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Munfordville        28.0   50.0   57.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Rochester           17.0   25.0   30.0 :   7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Woodbury            33.0   45.0   48.0 :   7    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kentucky River
Frankfort Lock      31.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Ford Lock           26.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
High Bridge Lock    30.0   36.0   39.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lockport Lock       33.0   43.0   49.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring   25.0   42.0   45.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy              25.0   28.0   32.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek       451.0  457.0  470.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Cannelton Lock      42.0   46.0   50.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
McAlpine Lower      55.0   65.0   73.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
McAlpine Upper      23.0   30.0   38.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Tell City           38.0   44.0   50.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rolling Fork River
Boston              35.0   42.0   45.0 :   6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rough River
Dundee              25.0   28.0   30.0 :   6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Salt River
Shepherdsville      32.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana           20.0   22.0   23.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 06/23/2015 - 09/21/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Barren River
Bowling Green         5.6    6.3    7.0    8.6   10.7   15.4   25.3
:Blue River
Fredericksburg        2.8    3.2    3.9    4.9    6.3    8.4   13.6
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton               4.6    5.0    5.8    7.3    9.1   13.7   24.8
:Green River
Brownsville           9.3    9.4    9.9   10.4   11.4   13.1   15.9
Munfordville          3.2    3.4    4.3    5.4    7.1   11.9   21.5
Rochester             8.1    8.6    9.3   10.2   12.0   14.5   19.5
Woodbury              8.4    9.2   10.7   13.0   16.5   26.6   38.3
:Kentucky River
Frankfort Lock        8.1    8.4    9.1   10.0   11.7   13.6   14.1
Ford Lock            10.8   11.5   12.4   13.6   15.6   17.5   19.1
High Bridge Lock     11.4   11.6   12.8   14.2   16.0   18.1   19.1
Lockport Lock         9.9   10.6   11.5   13.2   15.6   19.2   24.6
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring     5.5    5.7    6.3    8.9   12.9   17.2   18.3
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy                4.9    5.2    6.5    9.3   16.0   22.4   25.0
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek        422.5  422.5  422.9  425.6  428.8  431.0  435.7
Cannelton Lock       14.5   14.9   16.4   19.3   23.2   27.5   32.2
McAlpine Lower       16.7   17.0   18.9   24.5   30.2   33.4   40.6
McAlpine Upper       12.5   12.5   12.5   12.5   12.6   12.9   16.3
Tell City            15.4   15.7   16.8   19.5   22.3   26.3   31.0
:Rolling Fork River
Boston                6.1    6.7    8.3   12.6   19.7   31.2   35.6
:Rough River
Dundee                6.0    6.6    9.1   11.6   14.4   19.1   25.7
:Salt River
Shepherdsville        1.4    1.7    2.4    3.5    4.7    7.2    9.6
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana             4.8    5.1    5.9    6.8    9.1   12.3   17.1

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 06/23/2015 - 09/21/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Barren River
Bowling Green         4.6    4.4    4.3    4.1    3.9    3.8    3.7
:Blue River
Fredericksburg        2.3    2.3    2.1    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.8
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton               4.3    4.2    4.2    4.1    4.1    4.0    4.0
:Green River
Brownsville           8.9    8.7    8.6    8.5    8.3    8.3    8.2
Munfordville          2.7    2.5    2.4    2.3    2.2    2.1    2.1
Rochester             7.1    6.8    6.6    6.3    6.1    5.9    5.8
Woodbury              7.0    6.6    6.3    6.1    5.8    5.5    5.4
:Kentucky River
Frankfort Lock        6.8    6.7    6.5    6.5    6.5    6.5    6.5
Ford Lock             9.5    9.5    9.4    9.3    9.2    9.2    9.1
High Bridge Lock      9.8    9.7    9.5    9.4    9.0    8.8    8.8
Lockport Lock         8.4    8.4    8.2    8.1    8.1    8.0    8.0
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring     4.7    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy                3.2    3.1    2.8    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek        420.9  420.8  420.7  420.5  420.3  420.2  420.2
Cannelton Lock       11.2   11.0   10.9   10.7   10.5   10.5   10.5
McAlpine Lower       11.3   11.0   10.7   10.4   10.3   10.2   10.1
McAlpine Upper       12.5   12.5   12.5   12.5   12.5   12.5   12.5
Tell City            12.6   12.3   12.2   11.9   11.9   11.8   11.8
:Rolling Fork River
Boston                3.5    3.4    3.1    2.9    2.8    2.7    2.7
:Rough River
Dundee                5.6    5.6    5.6    5.6    5.6    5.6    5.6
:Salt River
Shepherdsville        1.1    1.0    1.0    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana             4.2    4.1    3.9    3.8    3.7    3.5    3.4

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/lmk for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued July 2.

$$

CMC





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