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000
FXUS61 KLWX 181907
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
307 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track well to our north on Friday, causing a
cold front to move through Friday night into Saturday. Thereafter,
high pressure will return for the remainder of the weekend into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A stationary boundary continues to extend from Baltimore County
southward to St. Mary`s County. Flow is out of the east to the
east of the boundary, and out of the northwest to the west of
the boundary. Easterly flow has maintained a marine influence to
the east of the boundary thus far, keeping conditions cooler (in
the 60s). Low clouds are finally starting to burn off, which
should allow for a few hours of stronger daytime heating this
afternoon. Further west, temperatures have climbed into the
upper 70s and lower 80s beneath mostly sunny skies. In those
same locations, winds are gusting to around 15-25 mph out of the
northwest.

As we move into tonight, flow at low-levels will turn easterly.
This will lead to an increasing marine influence, with low
clouds developing later tonight. Low temperatures tonight will
be in the upper 40s and lower 50s for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper troughing will move over the Great Lakes tomorrow, while
an associated area of low pressure tracks toward Hudson Bay. The
system`s cold front will trail to the southwest across the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys, making slow eastward progress through
the day. Warm advection will ensue at low-levels in advance of
the system`s cold front, but will have little upper support to
work with as the primary trough tracks well to our north. As a
result, showers will be possible at times, but much of the day
should remain dry. Showers will overspread areas to the west of
the Blue Ridge tomorrow morning, before progressing further
east tomorrow afternoon. Showers will continue to be possible
through much of tomorrow night until the system`s cold front
clears the area.

Cold/dry advection behind the system`s cold front will lead to
dry conditions and increasing sunshine on Saturday. High
temperatures are forecast to reach into the mid 60s to lower 70s
for most, and winds will be breezy out of the northwest, with
gusts of 20-30 mph common during the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
By the end of the weekend, a frontal boundary will be situated
across the southeast with high pressure across the heart of the
CONUS. As a low continues to move along the front, expect a
chance for an isolated shower late Sunday with most areas
remaining dry. Highs will top out in the 50s to low 60s for
most, with upper 40s to low 50s in the mountains.

Continued mostly dry conditions will persist through the start of
the workweek high pressure influencing the region. Temperatures will
be at or just below normal heading into Tuesday with a slight
warming trend through the early week. By midweek, a low pressure
system will approach from the Great Lakes and bring rain chances for
the area by late Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front passes by.
Thunderstorm chances remain low given the lack of instability across
the area during this time. Slightly below average temperatures will
persist through the remainder of the week.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Conditions are now VFR at all terminals. Winds are northwesterly
this afternoon at the majority of the terminals, with gusts of
15-20 knots common. However, MTN and BWI remain out of the east.
Winds will turn easterly at all terminals overnight. This will
lead to a marine influence and low ceilings building back into
the area tonight. Some improvement back to MVFR is expected
tomorrow, but chances for showers will also increase tomorrow
afternoon into tomorrow night.

Sub-VFR conditions will likely continue through the first half
of tomorrow night until a cold front moves through. Behind the
front, VFR conditions and northwesterly winds are expected.
Gusts of 20-30 knots may be possible in northwesterly flow on
Saturday.

VFR conditions are expected with winds mainly out of the northwest
Sunday into Monday. No really credible rain chances are expected for
the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
A few sporadic gusts are nearing 20 knots near shore over the
Tidal Potomac and the widest waters of the bay adjacent to
southern Maryland. A Marine Weather Statement is in effect for
those locations through 4 PM. Winds over the waters will turn
northerly this evening and then pick up out of the east
overnight. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for most waters
this evening through the first half of the overnight. Winds
will be light out of the east tomorrow morning, before turning
light out of the south to southeast tomorrow afternoon. A cold
front will cross over the waters tomorrow night, causing winds
to turn out of the northwest. Small Craft Advisory conditions
appear likely in northwesterly flow on Saturday.

Sub-SCA winds are expected Sunday into Monday with gusts 10 to maybe
15 knots at times, especially Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies will hold steady or trend down slightly today with a
brief period of northerly winds. Easterly winds develop tonight then
become southerly Friday, which will result in rising anomalies. The
greatest chance for minor flooding will be along sensitive shoreline
(Annapolis, Straits Point, DC SW Waterfront) with the Friday and
Friday night high tides, although it may be close in other
locations. Water levels will drop on Saturday in gusty
northwest postfrontal flow.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for ANZ530>533-538>542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Friday
     for ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...ADM
AVIATION...KJP/ADM
MARINE...KJP/ADM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS