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000
FXUS61 KLWX 170128
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
928 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north across central Virginia overnight,
finally lifting northeast of the area Thursday. A weak cold
front will track through on Thursday before a stronger cold
front arrives on Saturday. High pressure returns on Sunday and
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Some increasing mid-level and high clouds are expected as a warm
front lifts northward overnight. A few showers are possible
toward daybreak, but should stay well west of I-81 over the
mountains. Lows tonight in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The warm front is expected to slow its forward progress during
the day Wednesday to allow for thickening lower clouds and
scattered to numerous showers to develop throughout the day from
west to east. A few thunderstorms are also possible mainly east
of I-95. Highs on Wednesday should be in the 70s for most.
Additional showers are possible Wednesday evening. By late
Wednesday night, precip chances decrease as warm front lifts
north into Pennsylvania.

On Thursday, the warm front clears the area with clouds breaking
for sunshine and warmer temperatures during the afternoon. This
partial or gradual clearing could be short-lived as a cold front
approaches and pushes through the region later Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A slow moving cold front crosses the area Friday into Friday night,
bringing scattered to widespread showers. More persistent shower
activity is likely west of the Blue Ridge, with less coverage of
showers to the east. Dry conditions behind the front as winds turn
northwest Saturday morning. A reinforcing front moves through
Saturday afternoon, with breezy conditions developing Saturday
evening into Saturday night. High pressure builds into the region
from the north through early next week. Mostly dry conditions are
likely through Monday of next week, however some guidance does show
low rain chances (20pct) moving into the southern half of the area.
This is due to a wave of low pressure riding along a stalled
boundary to the south. Given the strength and position of the ridge
to our north, we likely remain dry. However, the forecast at 6-7
days remains a bit uncertain, while no hazardous weather is
currently forecast.

Afternoon highs in the 60s to low 70s Friday and Saturday drop
slightly to the low to mid 60s Sunday and Monday. Seasonal overnight
lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Friday night. Cooler air rushes in
Saturday night, dropping lows to the upper 30s to mid 40s, with near
freezing temperatures in the Alleghenies. Similar, if not slightly
cooler temps for Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions through daybreak Wednesday. Some lowering
ceilings could unfold from the MRB and IAD terminal to the DCA,
BWI and MTN terminals throughout Wednesday morning into the
afternoon. Showers, scattered to numerous could overtake the
region for a brief period during the day Wednesday. Once showers
and thunderstorms dissipate or exit to the east, some low clouds
will evolve Wednesday night. As the warm front exits to the
northeast Thursday, sub-VFR conditions should improve to VFR.

A cold front crossing the area Friday into Friday night brings
scattered to widespread showers to all the terminals. While VFR
conditions likely prevail, a period of sub-VFR conditions is
possible when showers move through. Dry and VFR conditions Saturday
with a reinforcing cold front moving through the area. Winds turn
northwest and increase Saturday evening into Sunday where gusts of
20-25 knots are possible.

&&

.MARINE...
A couple of thunderstorms could develop midday Wednesday and
Wednesday afternoon as a warm front slowly approaches from the
southwest. Some channeling is possible Wednesday night and
marginal SCA conditions are possible.

A weak cold front crosses the local waters Friday night into
Saturday as winds remain below SCA criteria at 10-15 knots. A
reinforcing cold front moves through Saturday afternoon, with
northwest winds increasing behind the front. SCA conditions possible
Saturday evening into Sunday across most of the waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR/KLW
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...KLW/KRR
MARINE...KLW/KRR