853
FXUS64 KLZK 290533
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1233 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Data from KLZK radar indicate scattered convection across much of
the forecast area.  This activity is supported by persistent
southerly low level flow, acting on outflow boundaries and a
remaining cold dome created by previous morning convection.

19z instability analysis indicates that the previous convection has
affected available instability due to overturning across all but
southeast sections of the forecast area. Minor recovery is expected
through late afternoon. Latest CAM output has been consistent with
earlier runs regarding developing a linear type MCS late this
afternoon across central Oklahoma, where instability is much higher.
This system then will move east across the forecast area overnight.
This system should provide impactful rainfall rates.  The greatest
chance for organized severe convection will be across extreme
southwest sections of the forecast area.

Some residual activity will end from west to east during the day
Monday. Dry conditions are expected for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast at
times from Wed-Fri across the state. At the sfc, warm/humid
conditions will persist across much of the region with above normal
temperatures likely each day.

Aloft, H500 flow will largely be out of the SW ahead of a trough
moving from the western US toward the Great Lakes. Mid-level ridging
is expected to build across the SE US which will further influence
the amplified flow across the region.

Ahead of the trough, several weak disturbances traversing the SW
flow will help contribute to showers and thunderstorms developing
across the area. By late week a developing sfc cyclone is expected
to drag a cold front across the state which will help focus precip
development across AR while the H500 trough swings northeast of the
area.

Somewhat cooler temperatures along with a brief break in rain
chances are possible in the wake of these systems as sfc ridging
builds in.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Expect MVFR CIGS associated with the shower and thunderstorm
activity that continues across Arkansas from early Monday morning
into the early afternoon on Monday. The northern and southern sites
will continue to see rain and isolated thunderstorm potential early
Monday morning into the midday on Monday with the southeastern sites
of KPBF and KLLQ seeing rain holding on until early Monday
afternoon. CIGS will lift to VFR category across the state from west
to east beginning Monday midday into Monday afternoon. Surface wind
gusts in excess of 24 knots will be expected across the southeastern
terminals of KPBF and KLLQ.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  58  83  62 /  50  10   0   0
Camden AR         78  59  84  61 /  50  10  10  10
Harrison AR       77  54  83  59 /  10   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    79  58  83  61 /  30   0  10  10
Little Rock   AR  78  62  85  64 /  50  10   0   0
Monticello AR     75  63  84  64 /  70  10  10  10
Mount Ida AR      80  57  84  61 /  20   0  10  10
Mountain Home AR  78  55  83  60 /  20   0   0   0
Newport AR        74  60  81  61 /  60  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     75  61  83  62 /  70  10  10   0
Russellville AR   79  58  84  60 /  20   0   0   0
Searcy AR         75  58  83  60 /  60  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      75  62  82  63 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ004-005-014-024-
031-032-039-042>044-052>055-062-063-066>068-103-112-113-121>123-
130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-
340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...74