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000
FXUS64 KMAF 242038
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
338 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

There is a risk for severe weather the next several days that we are
keeping an eye on. First is this afternoon in the northern Permian
Basin where a great deal of instability and shear are located,
however an upper ridge will act to keep a lid on most convection. A
weak front moved into the area this morning and may act as a surface
focus though recent observations show it has mostly dissipated. This
is a conditional severe weather day where any storms that form have
a chance to become severe with those chances being somewhat low.

Things change tomorrow as the upper ridge shifts off to the east and
an upper trough moves into New Mexico. Increasing lift moving over
an established dryline in the eastern Permian Basin will cause a
line of severe thunderstorms to form. The timing of the system is
later than usual with the upper lift overcoming the loss of daytime
heating for storms to form in the early evening and continue
overnight before moving east just after midnight.

Lows tonight will again be in the 60s with tomorrow reaching the 80s
and 90s. Drier air moving in tomorrow night behind the dryline
allows lows to drop down into the 50s and give some relief to our
recent muggy mornings.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

We`ll catch a break Friday with temperatures running around normal
before we see the next potent short wave troughs Saturday.  Cluster
analyses indicate that this system is coming in a bit slower and
lower in latitude than in previous runs, which means the position of
the dryline will be crucial in convective development along and east
of the dryline and in fire weather concerns west of the dryline.
There`s a fair amount of uncertainty on the eventual position of the
dryline Saturday, with the mean NBM position extending roughly along
a Gail to Big Lake line at the time of max heating. It should also
be noted that models sometimes don`t handle PBL mixing well in
dynamic situations and that, should model trends keep slowing the
trough, then pressure falls and backed winds back in the dry air
will inhibit eastward translation of the dryline to maybe a Lamesa
to Midland to Fort Stockton to Boquillas line.  In any event, there
does appear to be a fair amount of capping as evident in the
strength of the EML, so convection will struggle to initiate, even
over the elevated heat sources of the Glass and Davis mountains.  It
may be that convection won`t initiate until after dark Saturday
night when the Pacific front shoves everything east of the Permian
Basin. PoP forecasts reflect the most likely scenario, with isolated
to scattered thunderstorms across the far eastern Basin and the
western Low Rolling Plains Saturday evening.

Short wave ridging will then take hold for Sunday through Tuesday,
with temperatures somewhere around normal Sunday and warming a few
degrees each day. An active pattern regime does appear Tuesday and
beyond, with perhaps a decent chance of precipitation across much of
west Texas and southeastern New Mexico as the dryline becomes active
again. Stay tuned. -bc

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

An MVFR deck has approached MAF very closely from the north.
Heating will lift it to VFR even if it arrives at MAF so VFR
conditions should continue at all TAF sites. There will be
isolated TS in the northern Permian Basin but should not directly
impact any TAF sites though they will be in the flying area.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

An upper level trough is going to bring increasing westerly winds
and drier air from southeastern New Mexico and the western Permian
Basin, south to the Big Bend tomorrow. The most critical conditions
will be in the upper Trans Pecos from Roswell to Pecos where winds
will be strongest and RFTI values reach 6-7 with a few isolated 8.
Winds ease slightly Friday but will still likely be strong enough to
create critical fire weather conditions. Winds strengthen again
Saturday continuing the critical fire threat before easing up on
Sunday finally relieving fire weather conditions. The wind direction
is expected to maintain a mostly westerly direction.

An RFW will likely be needed for much of the same area as Thursday,
for both Friday and Saturday though have held off at this time due
to uncertainty that far out. Overnight recoveries through Sunday
night will be poor for most locations. Better recoveries are not
expected until Monday and Tuesday when increasing moisture moves in
from off the Gulf of Mexico.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               67  88  58  85 /  20  10  50   0
Carlsbad                 59  90  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   68  89  62  91 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton            65  94  58  88 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           60  81  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    62  88  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    52  87  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     67  89  58  84 /  10  10  30   0
Odessa                   68  90  59  85 /  10   0  30   0
Wink                     64  94  57  87 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ to 11 PM CDT /10 PM
     MDT/ Thursday for Andrews-Central Brewster County-Chinati
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa
     Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ Thursday to 1 AM CDT
     /midnight MDT/ Friday for Eastern Culberson County-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 1 AM CDT Friday for Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 10 PM MDT Thursday for Chaves
     Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 1 PM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday
     night for Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday night
     for Central Lea County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...10