152
ACUS11 KWNS 062253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062253
KSZ000-070030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0660
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

Areas affected...Central into northeast Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 187...189...190...

Valid 062253Z - 070030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 187, 189, 190 continues.

SUMMARY...An increase in the tornado threat will likely occur as the
low-level jet increases in eastern Kansas this evening. The
magnitude of this threat will be conditional on maintaining at least
quasi-discrete storms. QLCS tornadoes will still be possible within
any linear segments.

DISCUSSION...Winds aloft have remained backed enough to keep storms
in central Kansas quasi-discrete. Very-large hail has been the
primary threat with these storms thus far (reports of 2.5-3 in.).
Regional VAD profiles show the low-level jet at 45-50 kts currently.
The jet should intensify this evening, especially within eastern
Kansas. The primary question is whether storms will remain discrete
beyond 00Z. Continued mid-level height falls this evening could be
enough to increase convective coverage such that a more linear mode
develops. The greatest threat for tornadoes, especially strong
tornadoes, will depend on maintaining discrete storms. Given the
strength of the low-level jet, it is possible that some discrete
storms could develop ahead of this line due to warm advection. Even
with a more linear mode, however, severe wind gusts and QLCS
tornadoes would still be possible.

..Wendt.. 05/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   38939828 39499769 39779613 39509564 38749524 38309556
            37799716 37709857 38939828