Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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133 FXUS64 KMEG 022353 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 653 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Wet and unsettled weather will persist across the Mid-South over the next week or so as a series of upper level disturbances and fronts will move the region. Above normal temperatures and precipitation is expected through the late next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 The latest KNQA radar sweep reveals scattered showers and thunderstorms tracking nearly due north along and west of I-55. Most convective activity has been on the weaker side as shear has generally been less than 25 knots. A few strong storms are still possible this afternoon as up to 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE is available along and west of the Mississippi River. The main threats with any strong storms will be small hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Convective activity will become more widespread over the next several hours, as a shortwave over Arkansas translates northeast through the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The majority of activity will occur overnight and taper off by Friday morning. Upper level heights are expected to build north of I-40 tomorrow in wake of the departing wave. This should limit convective coverage to the north. A weak cold front will move into the Mid- South tomorrow afternoon and likely act as a trigger for renewed convection. HREF guidance suggests most activity will be confined to areas along and south of I-40 corridor in the mid to late afternoon hours tomorrow. Storm coverage and timing will be difficult to pin down over the weekend as we remain in weak southwest flow aloft. Several weak shortwaves and frontal boundaries will be in play each day and hi-res guidance may be the only option to get a good handle on mesoscale triggers. Opted to stick with the NBM through this period, with 20 to 40 PoPs during the overnight periods and 40 to 80 PoPs during peak heating each day. Unsettled weather will continue through the long term forecast as several shortwaves traverse the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. No clearly organized severe weather threat is forecast over the next 7 days. Both temperatures and rainfall will remain above normal through late next week. AC3 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 In the near term, VFR conditions with light SHRA will prevail at all sites, with the potential for isolated heavier bands of rain that could reduce VIS to MVFR. Later tonight, MVFR CIGS will begin to move in at most terminal sites, with a gradual reduction IFR conditions. CIGS will gradually improve after daybreak, with another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected by tomorrow afternoon, though confidence in coverage and timing remains low at this time. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...JPR