994
FXUS64 KMEG 280852
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
352 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A wet and unsettled period for the Mid-South will begin today as
showers and thunderstorms return late this evening. Temperatures
on Monday will be slightly cooler thanks to increased cloud cover
with highs in the mid to upper 70s. However, daily rain chances
and temperatures in the 80s will return by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The upper level low responsible for Saturday`s severe weather
outbreak in the Plains will push northeast today, ejecting an
attendant cold front into western Arkansas. While this boundary
appears to washout before reaching the Mid-South, the pressure
gradient will tighten later this morning. The WSUP Viewer paints
most of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel in a 50-70%
chance of exceeding Wind Advisory criteria through this afternoon.
As such, a Wind Advisory will be in effect from 8AM to 7PM.

A limited severe weather threat may materialize for a few hours
tonight as a line of showers and thunderstorms pushes into
northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Forecast soundings
at this time depict bulk shear around 40 kts with mid level lapse
rates of 6.5 C/km. Upscale growth of storms will be limited by 2
factors: the first being instability as both GEFS and ECMWF
ensembles paint only a 30% chance of > 500 J/kg of SBCAPE. The
second limiting factor will be the potential for a capping
inversion to develop after sunset. If a severe storm does
materialize, the main concern will be damaging winds. A Slight and
Marginal Risk for severe storms is in place through Monday
morning for areas along and west of the MS River.

Precipitable water values through Monday afternoon are forecast
to be around 1.6 inches, which is around the 99th percentile for
this time of year. Therefore, showers and storms will likely be
efficient rainfall producers. Storm total precipitation from now
through Monday night will range from 1 - 2 inches, with locally
higher amounts possible. As such, a Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall is in place across the majority of the Mid-South through
Monday.

A brief lull in precipitation will occur on Tuesday as quasi-
zonal flow aloft returns. By Wednesday, daily rain chances will
return as several shortwaves, embedded in zonal flow, transverse
the Mid-South. One thing to note: both the GFS and ECMWF depict a
negatively tilted trough pushing into the Midwest on Friday. The
GFS solution brings this system much further south than the ECMWF.
If this southern trend continues, severe weather chances may
materialize. However, confidence now remains low for severe
weather through the end of the week.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

LLWS (Southerly 180-190 at 40-50kt) will impact all TAF sites
tonight but subside tomorrow. Gradient winds tonight into tomorrow
night will remain southerly 15-20kts with occasional gusts
approaching 30kts. A line of weakening showers/thunderstorms
should approach MEM, MKL and JBR around midnight. Included PROB30
for thunderstorms at MEM and JBR with only VCTS at MKL.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JDS