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000
FXUS62 KMFL 140627
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
227 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

With nocturnal stratification currently ongoing, winds have decoupled
across inland areas of South Florida which has resulted in radiational
cooling away from the influence of our nearshore waters.  Temperatures
around sunrise this morning will vary from the 50s just to the west of
Lake Okeechobee and across inland locales with the coastal communities
along the Gulf coast remaining in the low 60s. Coastal communities along
the east coast will range from the middle to upper 60s. In large part,
this noteworthy temperature variance is due to the moderating influences
of the nearby Gulf Stream current which will keep the immediate east
coast of South Florida on the warmer side as light easterly flow along
the coast continues overnight. With the axis of the surface ridge
remaining across the western Atlantic waters, diurnal heating and an
increasing mixing height will allow for winds to recouple after sunrise
out of a easterly direction across the area by the late morning hours.
Even with an onshore wind component, rain chances will remain quite
minimal as the vertical column remains very dry, evident on the most
recent 00z sounding. The recorded precipitable water value from the
00z sounding of 0.62 is quite dry for South Florida standards (lower
than the 10% percentile) with a classic subsidence inversion in place.
Given such strong capping and dry air in the vertical column, expect
another day of minimal cloud cover. It`ll feel dry and comfortable once
again out there as relative humidity and dew-point values remain quite
low. High temperatures today and on Monday will remain quite seasonable
in nature with forecast highs in the upper 70s to low 80s along the
immediate east coast with slightly warmer temperatures (low 80s with
perhaps a few locales in the middle 80s) inland and across southwestern
Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Not much to write home about for the foreseeable future as our overall
weather pattern remains benign and dry. Mid-level ridging will
remain across the area in conjunction with the aforementioned high
pressure over the western Atlantic. The positioning of the high
NE of the area will support easterly low-lvl flow through
essentially the entire extended period, while very dry air and
subsidence in the vicinity of the encroaching mid-level ridge
combined with the northward displacement of the subtropical jet-
stream and the resultant disturbances track well to the north of
the region will keep rain chances near zero as well. Temperatures,
initially will warm to above normal by mid-week as the ridge
builds toward the area. Given the persistent easterly flow, warmer
high temperatures will be observed over Interior and SW Florida
with fairly widespread maximums in the lower 90s expected
Wednesday and beyond, while the east coast will see highs
gradually warm into the mid 80s by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Light and variable winds early
this morning becoming easterly 10-15 kts today, although a brief
westerly Gulf breeze is expected mid afternoon at APF. Winds
diminish to 10 kts or less tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Winds across the local waters will gradually become easterly as the
rest of the weekend progresses. Moderate to fresh breezes will continue
especially across the Atlantic waters heading into the early portion of
the week. Periods of SCEC (Small Craft Exercise Caution) or SCA (Small
Craft Advisory) could be realized during the middle portion of the week
as a pressure gradient enhances across our area waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

As winds remain easterly, a moderate risk of rip currents will continue
across the Atlantic Coast beaches through the rest of the weekend. The
risk of rip currents along the Gulf coast will continue to decrease
throughout tonight and into the rest of the weekend. The threat of rip
currents will then increase again early to middle of next week for the
east coast beaches of South Florida due to the moderate to breezy
easterly winds continuing across the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

A very dry air mass will remain in place over South FL today and
into early this upcoming week. Min RH values today will be in the
low to mid 30 percent range over the interior and SW FL. RH values
will improve slightly on Monday, but will still drop into the mid
to upper 30 percent range over interior SW FL. While easterly
winds will remain under critical thresholds, the ongoing dry
conditions along with the low RH values may still result in
enhanced fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  69  80  69 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     81  64  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        81  67  82  68 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        80  67  80  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  79  68  79  69 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  78  67  80  69 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   81  67  82  68 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  78  65  80  67 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       80  67  80  69 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           85  64  85  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...CMF