Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
441 FXUS62 KMLB 010746 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 346 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 Current...Latest early morning radar imagery depicts isolated marine showers off the coast of Martin and Palm Beach counties slowly drifting northward, which could bring brief heavy rain to beachside communities prior to daybreak, although accumulations should be much lower than what was observed yesterday. Over the next few hours, southeast winds should become calm, which has already occurred at a few inland locations, aiding the development of patchy fog. So far, no reports of visibility reductions, but the most favorable locations for fog or low stratus will be Lake and inland Volusia counties, although patchy fog could be possible for areas that received rain yesterday as well. Today-Tonight...The first day of May is forecast to be very similar to the last day of April, with the development of the east and west coast sea breezes early in the afternoon. Overall a lack of deep moisture should keep high rain chances at bay, but will still see some showers and convection by the mid afternoon over the interior, especially along the Kissimmee River. Showers will initiate along the sea breeze boundary prior to noon, advancing inland and increasing in coverage to 30% with the added threat for lightning. While activity is not forecast to be strong, gusty winds, a few lightning strikes and heavy downpours will be possible in any convection that does develop. The greater threat for storms lies southwest of Lake Okeechobee where a more robust collision of the east and west coast breezes will occur. By sunset, activity should come to an end over land, leaving a lingering chance for showers and storms over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Temperatures this afternoon will reach very near 90 degrees for locations west of I-95 depending on how quickly the sea breeze advances inland. Coastal sites will remain a few degrees below that in the low to mid 80s. Near normal lows continue in the mid to upper 60s. Thursday-Wednesday...Weak ridging remains in place over the area into next week, with daily east coast sea breezes. Overall flow looks to remain onshore through Monday, helping to keep the sea breeze collision over the interior, if not the western half of the peninsula. By mid-week next week, prevailing southerly flow is forecast to lead to a collision a bit farther east, though still over the interior. Despite the summer-like sea breeze pattern, available moisture will remain well below summer values. PWATs of 1-1.25" Thursday will struggle to support convection, particularly with much drier air present above 700mb. PoPs around 20% over the interior. Then, PoPs fall below 15% Friday, as PWATs fall below 1". Some higher moisture (PWATs 1.5-1.6") advects into the area this weekend, as PoPs once again increase to around 20%. A few lightning storms cannot be ruled out, though hostile mid and upper levels will limit updraft heights. By early next week, PoPs once again fall below 15%, but will need to monitor over the coming days, should mentionable PoPs be needed over the interior. Above normal temperatures over the interior early in the period (highs in the upper 80s to around 90) increase into early next week, with high temperatures on Wednesday forecast to reach the mid-90s. Onshore flow will keep coastal areas in the lower to mid-80s, but will see temperatures increase there as well into mid-week next week, reaching the upper 80s. Overnight lows remain consistent in the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 Light southeast winds will become calm at most inland terminals prior to 12Z, allowing for the development of patchy dense fog. IFR/MVFR vis/cigs will be possible for terminals north of KMCO (highest confidence for KLEE/KSFB) although the low stratus appears to be the more likely scenario. Conditions will return to VFR soon after daybreak with east winds increasing to 10 knots by 18Z at coastal sites with the sea breeze development. Isolated showers with a small chance for a storm will be possible this afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland, but confidence is too low at this time to include mention at any specific terminals; could see a brief SHRA mention added for KMCO or KLEE by 19Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions as light and variable winds this morning become easterly around 10 knots by the afternoon with seas generally 3-4 ft. Isolated Atlantic showers become scattered this afternoon, with the small chance for thunderstorms over the Gulf Stream. Thursday-Sunday... High pressure lingers through the period, maintaining generally favorable boating conditions. Onshore flow each day, becoming 10-15kts during the afternoons, as the sea breeze develops. Seas 2-3ft. A few showers and lightning storms will be possible, especially this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 Light and variable winds become easterly around 10-12 mph by the early afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze. Isolated to scattered showers will advance inland, with the potential for a few lightning storms. Highest coverage of activity will be along the Kissimmee River. Fire sensitive conditions persist this week, with minimum RH values falling below 40% west of Orlando. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 67 84 67 / 20 0 10 0 MCO 89 68 88 68 / 30 10 20 0 MLB 84 68 84 69 / 20 10 20 0 VRB 85 67 85 67 / 20 10 20 0 LEE 89 68 90 68 / 30 20 20 0 SFB 89 67 89 67 / 20 10 10 0 ORL 90 69 89 68 / 30 10 20 0 FPR 85 66 85 67 / 20 10 20 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schaper LONG TERM...Leahy AVIATION...Schaper