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000
FXUS63 KMPX 122001
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
301 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures in the 70s and 80s this weekend.

- Confidence increasing in soaking rain Monday night into Wednesday.
  Most locations should see over an inch of rain along with a few
  rumbles of thunder.

- Cooler temperatures arrive for the second half of next week with
  highs in the 40s and 50s expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY... GOES visible imagery highlights an area of
fair weather Cu across portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Surface
observations reveal temperatures climbing into the upper 50s and
lower 60s across the region and a breezy northwest wind around 15 to
20mph with gusts sporadically to 30mph. Winds will begin to decrease
through the evening hours before shifting toward the south-southeast
overnight. Southerly winds ramp up ahead of a trough with wind gusts
of 20 to 30mph likely to return Saturday afternoon. This will advect
much warmer air into the region with the thermal ridge forecast to
move overhead Saturday afternoon. High temperatures have trended
warmer over the past few forecasts updates, with high temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s with a chance of mid 80s in SW MN. With this
warm up, we`ll have elevated fire weather conditions develop
Saturday afternoon across much of Minnesota due to MinRH values in
the upper 20s to mid 30s range and sustained winds in the 15 to
20mph range. An area of elevated to near-critical conditions could
develop across southwest Minnesota, where warmer temperatures and
stronger winds will help push MinRH values into the mid 20 percent
range. We have issued a Fire Weather Watch across portions of
southwestern and southern Minnesota after collaboration with our
neighboring WFOs.

Saturday night will see some showers and
thunderstorms across northern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.
These could clip portions of west-central WI as the move southeast
toward lake Michigan. The combination of steep mid-level lapse
rates, 500 to 1000J/Kg MUCAPE, and 25-30 kts of bulk shear could
produce some small hail and gusty winds where they do track. For now
the best chances remain to our north and east. Sunday has trended
cooler considering the cold frontal passage Saturday night. Cooler
air aloft should limit highs into the upper 60s to mid 70s, but
still very pleasant for mid April. Likely another day of elevated
fire weather concerns for portions of Minnesota with gusty northwest
winds and 30 to 40 percent RH values.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... Monday will be the last of the warm
days with highs in the 70s. We`ll advect in warmer air in advance of
a large surface low in the Plains. This system will begin to inch
towards the Upper MS Valley with bands of rain likely to impact the
region Monday night. This slow moving system will bring widespread
rain across the region with amounts in excess of 1" forecast through
Wednesday morning. Tuesday will likely be a washout will 90+ PoPs in
the NBM 4-5 days out! This should also limit drought concerns for
the next month or so, but with the green up kicking into gear, we`ll
have to monitor for additional rain in the future. There should be
embedded thunderstorms amongst the precip shield on Tuesday. Severe
weather potential looks like it`ll stay off to our south/east yet
there is still some uncertainty with exactly where things set up.
Regardless, we`re going to see a long duration rain event with gusty
winds that`ll exit by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the system
will be a stretch of below normal temperatures, considering our
average temperatures will be in the upper 50s by then, means we`ll
see highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s Wednesday through Friday. There
is a growing signal for sub-freezing low temperatures as we head
into next weekend and a non-zero chance for diurnally driven CAA
snow/graupel showers to end the week. Thankfully, this cool snap
will be short lived with another signal for warmer temps beyond
the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Prevailing VFR through the entire period. SCT cu over RNH
and EAU expected to diminish this evening. NW`ly winds will decrease
around 00-01z this evening before becoming light and variable
overnight. Winds shifting to southerly prior to sunrise and
then becoming gusty between 20-25kts after 15z.


KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
MON...VFR bcmg MVFR. Chc -RA late. Wind SE 10-15g25kts.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. -RA lkly. Wind SE 15-20g30kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-
     Redwood-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...Dunleavy