312
FXUS63 KMPX 021940
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
240 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clearing skies tonight will bring very nice weather for Friday.

- Unsettled weather pattern brings additional rain chances this
  weekend and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

As this morning`s showers slowly push to northeast, low stratus and
areas of drizzle have remained. Some rain still exists over western
WI but will clear our counties within a few hours. Total rainfall
has ranged from around 0.1-0.2" in western MN, to 0.5-0.7" in
the Twin Cities and our WI counties, to well over an inch across
portions of southern and southeastern MN. Another good soaking
rain for our region. The rest of today looks gloomy as clouds
will have a hard time clearing before sunset. Due to this, have
lowered highs by a couple degrees. Rising 500 hPa heights and
lessening moisture overnight will help clear skies allowing for
a mostly sunny Friday with highs in the 60s. A few 70s are even
possible in from southern MN to western WI. In all, it should be
perfect day to end the work week. A shortwave will pass through
Friday night into Saturday morning, spawning a band of showers
along a cold front. PoPs have increased as models continue to
converge with best chances of showers expected from southern MN
Friday night into Saturday morning. Ensemble guidance favors
another 0.25" to even over 0.5" of QPF for this round of precip.
Skies should begin to clear behind the front, leaving for a
relatively nice late Saturday afternoon and evening. Highs
Saturday are forecast in the lower 60s. Sunday continues to look
like the nicest day of the weekend as highs warm into the mid
60s to lower 70s under sunny skies and light winds.

Long-range guidance continues to forecast a strong, amplified trough
ejecting east of the Rockies early next week. This would cause
strong, southerly warm air and moisture advection into the Plains
region. Development of showers and thunderstorms would eventually
occur along surface frontal boundaries as the ejecting trough
dynamics produce surface cyclogenesis in the High Plains. Latest
model trends have also hinted that this trough will be more
amplified and dig farther into the Southern Plains, becoming more
negatively-tilted before it pivots north-northeast. With this
knowledge, it would seem reasonable to expect models to slow down
the trough as stronger systems usually take more time to develop.
Monday continues to look warm (highs in the low to mid 70s) but it
seems more likely that rain chances should hold off until at least
Monday night. Guidance shows a heavier, convective rain along the
cold front as the trough swings through the Central Plains, likely
making for a very wet Monday night into Tuesday. Any strong
thunderstorms in our region will depend on how far north instability
can travel.

After Tuesday, forecast model spread begins to increase but the
general, loose consensus is that the trough will evolve into a
cutoff low and remain somewhere over the northern CONUS through mid-
week. Thus, we could be dealing with additional periods of rain and
sustained cloud cover through most of the week within the upper-
level cyclonic flow. Temperatures also would likely not be as warm
as Sunday or Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

While the main rain shield has pushed off to the northeast,
still some weak lingering showers mainly north of I-94 with low
stratus impacting all sites. The showers will continue to
diminish but with the low stratus, areas of drizzle may develop
(essentially shearing any lingering precipitation as winds
increase a bit this afternoon). Visibility is not expected to
take a big hit with any drizzle but some MVFR visibilities are
possible. Ceilings will be the main driver of flight conditions
through this evening, with fairly quick improvement expected
this evening. Conditions are expected to reach VFR late this
evening into the early morning hours, with skies clearing out by
around daybreak Friday morning. Breezy easterly winds to
continue through this afternoon then speeds drop off to 5-8kts
this evening while quickly swinging around to westerly this
evening through Friday morning.

KMSP...A mixture of drizzle and light rain showers is expected
into this evening but visibilities are generally expected to
remain in VFR range (possibly some 4-5sm visibilities
occasionally through then but few and far between). Low stratus,
including IFR-worthy ceilings, will persist through this evening
then quick improvement is expected later this evening, resulting
in VFR conditions overnight into Friday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Mainly VFR. Chance A.M. MVFR/-RA. Wind NW 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts becoming SE 5-10kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Chance P.M. MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 15-20G25-30kts

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to
cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to
become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each
rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along
with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries
and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next
week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching
minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already
there).

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...JPC
HYDROLOGY...CCS