358
FNUS73 KMPX 031159
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Irving WPA Rx...USFWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
659 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...For the Irving WPA Burn, temperatures will warm
quickly from the upper 40s at ignition time to the mid 60s by
early afternoon. RH values will likely remain around 50% or higher
during the afternoon, but could potentially approach 40% if
temperatures overachieve by a few degrees. Cloud cover increases
during the afternoon with a slight chance of rain showers late
this afternoon & evening. Winds will be generally SW to WSW around
10 mph through mid afternoon. A wind shift is expected during the
late afternoon or evening, which will result in winds becoming
more northerly with speeds still around 10 mph.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming mostly
                    cloudy (75-85 percent).
Temperature.........45 at ignition...Max 62.
RH..................79 percent at ignition...Min 44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 8 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /8200 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /68400 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR PC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....                                        CHC CHC
Weather type....                                        RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............45  49  52  55  56  59  61  62  62  60  57  54
RH..............79  68  61  55  51  47  44  44  44  47  55  64
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..10  12  13  12  12  10  10  10  9   8   9   10
20 FT wind gust.16  17  20  17  17  16  16  16  14  13  14  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.8 4.1 4.6 2.9 1.8 1.2
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  W   W   W   NW  N
Transp wind spd.15  18  20  18  17  15  16  15  17  12  12  15
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain showers likely in
                    the evening, then rain showers overnight.
Temperature.........Min 43.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    north around 6 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (17500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning, then slight
                    chance of rain showers early in the morning.
Temperature.........Max 60.
RH..................Min 47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (87500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dye
Requested by...Blatz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413071.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/03/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david_blatz@fws.gov