844
FXUS66 KMTR 051137
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
437 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 104 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

Isolated post frontal showers will continue through Sunday morning
with decreasing intensity. While the next couple days will be
chilly, a gradual warming trend will bring temperatures above
normal by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 104 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

The cold front has been quite progressive over the last 24 hours
and is now near the CA/Mexico border. The cold air left behind
has brought the 1000-500 mb thickness into the mid 530 dm range.
This will cause surface temperatures to drop into the low 40s for
most areas away from the immediate coast or bay shore. This cold
air is also causing some instability, with the low level lapse
rates around the conditionally unstable threshold of 6.5 C/km. As
such, isolated showers are expected to continue through the
morning. The cold air is also drier, and by mid-day there will not
be enough moisture to support convection.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 104 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

A significant warming trend is in store this week as an upper
level ridge forms over the Eastern Pacific. As an example, the
high temperature at Santa Rosa on reached 58F on Saturday and is
expected to reach 84F by Thursday. A marine layer will likely
develop under the high pressure and keep coastal areas cool,
although the low-level moisture doesn`t seem to support
significant fog or stratus coverage. Overall, it will be a nice
week with increasing temperatures and plenty of sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 427 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

Currently VFR at all terminals with some isolated rain showers
in the Monterey Bay region. Post-frontal clearing will allow for
VFR conditions through the TAF period. Breezy winds with gusts up
to 25 knots are to be expected this afternoon. Isolated rain
showers will be possible through the morning, particularly for MRY
and SNS.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with breezy westerly flow. VFR
and westerly winds to prevail through the TAF period with gusts
up to 25 knots to be expected.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with breezy westerly flow
at both terminals. VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF
period with northwesterly winds for MRY and westerly/southwesterly
winds for SNS. Isolated rain showers will be possible through the
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 427 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

Isolated rain showers will continue through the morning before dry
conditions return. Moderate northwesterly breezes will prevail
through tomorrow. Northerly winds will become strong on Tuesday
and remain strong through Wednesday as surface high pressure over
the Eastern Pacific Ocean builds and moves east. Significant wave
heights will begin building on Monday, posing hazardous
conditions for small craft through Thursday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Monday
     for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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