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000
FXUS66 KMTR 192001
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
101 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1206 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A bit cooler across the board today with cloud cover in addition
to a deeper marine influence. Continued cloudiness to start the
weekend and a dry stretch going into next week. Potential
drizzle/light rain chances mid-to-late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1206 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Well defined marine layer up to about 2,000 feet remains in place
this afternoon per Fort Ord profiler. Expecting this to remain in
place through into Saturday as the responsible upper low moves
through and the onshore flow increases through tomorrow. Though
the deep marine layer remains locked in through Saturday, the
associated cloud cover will mix out during the afternoon, much
like today, and give way to a rather pleasant afternoon. Locations
right along the coast may see more persistent cloud cover lasting
later in the day, however. Otherwise, expect northwest winds to
increase Saturday afternoon, becoming breezy up to 25-35 mph along
the coast and nearby coastal hills.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1206 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

To end the weekend and start next week, ridging takes over the
pattern once again with afternoon highs increasing by a couple of
degrees for Sunday and Monday. Tuesday brings the next big change
in the weather as the well-advertised upper low moves into the
region. The most notable changes that will be noticed Tuesday are
cooler temps and increased cloud cover. Really not much change to
the forecast beyond that through the rest of the week. Certainty
regarding rainfall remains about the same with still only about
25 out of 100 members advertise anything measurable. Again, the
most likely scenario as of now will be drizzle in the hills and
coastal areas with perhaps some pockets of sprinkles here and
there.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 AM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Stratus continues to linger throughout portions of the Bay Area with
conditions ranging from VFR to MVFR-IFR. Satellite imagery shows
stratus is dissipating along the Central Coast with VFR to return
within the next hour. Satellite shows dissipating stratus in the
North Bay remains slightly more widespread but VFR conditions are
expected to return in the next 1 to 2 hours. After stratus
dissipation, VFR will prevail through the late evening/early night
with stratus and MVFR to IFR returning overnight. Light to moderate
winds primarily out of the W.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions through the end of the TAF.
Guidance indicates that stratus may return between 08-16Z but
confidence was low. Stratus previously developed at SFO from 11-14Z
this morning. If persistence holds true, stratus may develop early
tomorrow morning but as of now confidence was too low to include in
TAF. Light northerly to northeasterly winds at SFO will transition
more northwesterly to westerly through the TAF period with moderate
winds to return during the afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR to MVFR-IFR overnight. Stratus
continues to linger over portions of the Central Coast with VFR
conditions to fully return at MRY and SNS within the next hour.
Stratus will return late this evening through mid tomorrow morning.
Moderate confidence given guidance and persistence that IFR
conditions will develop at MRY and SNS overnight. Guidance indicates
some potential for LIFR overnight but confidence remains low.
Primarily light to moderate winds out of the west at MRY and winds
out of the west to northwest at SNS.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1117 AM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Light to moderate breezes out of the northwest and fair weather
prevail over much of the waters through at least Saturday
afternoon. Come the evening of Saturday, northwesterly winds
increase to become strong and gusty. Swell builds into Sunday out
of the northwest as gusty conditions continue but looks to
diminish towards the middle part of the next week. Light southerly
swell continues to move through the waters this weekend and
through the next work week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
     10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes
     10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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