528
FXUS64 KOHX 281635
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1135 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday Night)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Full-on spring and almost-summer has arrived, Middle TN. (It looks
like) Gone are the days of the chilly mornings and mid-60s
afternoons. Even the 8-14 day outlooks have us warmer and wetter
than normal. We`re now into the 80s every day and low to mid 60s
each morning - unless you live on the Plateau, then you get to enjoy
the coolish temps still. Today will be a warm, dry and breezy day
with afternoon highs creeping into the low to mid 80s for most. Cu
fields have already developed across the area and with a cap in
place, we will remain rain-free. However, this will change tomorrow.
All of the activity that has been going on upstream from us the last
couple of days will finally reach the mid-state tomorrow afternoon.
The good news is, the weather actually looks pretty benign when it
gets here. By the time the active pattern gets here, we`ll be losing
shear, lapse rates fall off and CAPE numbers should remain below
1000 J/Kg. This all spells thunderstorms, but nothing looks severe
right now. As was mentioned in the AFD earlier this morning, if
there`s anything that sticks out in forecast soundings, it`s PW
values. Current progs show these numbers creeping above 1.50" late
tomorrow afternoon. While I`m not overly concern about flooding,
efficient rainfall could give a couple of spots in Middle TN a quick
2+ inches, leading to some localized issues. Just something to keep
in mind.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Monday`s evening storms will be slow to move out of the area. Models
want to hold onto rain/storm chances through Tuesday afternoon,
especially east of I-65. Similar to Monday, we`ll likely see some
sub-1000 J/Kg CAPE build into this area, but shear values remain
unimpressive, so no severe weather is expected.

We`ll catch a break from the storms Wednesday and Thursday, but both
will likely be our warmest days of the week as an upper level
ridge amplifies into the Ohio Valley. The NBM continues to be very
aggressive with upper 80s west of the Plateau for Thursday`s
highs and might be a tick higher with probs for getting to 90. If
that happens, we would tie a 123-year record.

Rain chances move back into the region on Thursday starting another
couple days of active weather. For now, CAPE and shear remain
unimpressive as there just isn`t enough time to destabilize before
storms get here. Long way off, but as of now, severe weather looks
unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Southerly winds up to 11
knots overnight increasing after 13z to 10 to 16 knots gusting up
to 24 knots. Breezy winds diminish after 00z. Periods of high
level clouds with mid-level clouds developing this morning into
the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  66  83  64 /   0   0  50  90
Clarksville    83  66  78  62 /   0  10  80  90
Crossville     77  58  78  59 /   0   0  10  90
Columbia       83  64  82  62 /   0   0  50  90
Cookeville     80  61  80  61 /   0   0  20  90
Jamestown      79  60  80  59 /   0   0  10  90
Lawrenceburg   82  63  81  62 /   0   0  40  90
Murfreesboro   84  64  83  62 /   0   0  30  90
Waverly        84  66  79  61 /   0  10  80  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Cravens