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000
FXUS64 KOHX 240148
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
848 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Lovely night out there with temps still in the 60s and a southwest
breeze near 10mph as of update time. The 00Z balloon launch shows
a very dry atmosphere, pretty much all the way up through our
slice of the troposphere. Still, CAMs show the mid-levels
moistening up over the next several hours as a cold front
approaches, bringing light showers mainly to areas north of I-40.
No instability noted on the sounding tonight and still not seeing
any on the latest CAMs, so thunder potential is next to 0. Clouds
will clear by tomorrow afternoon, leaving us with another
beautiful and warm spring day with highs in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A warmer day is in place across the mid state. Under moderate
southwesterly breezes the temperatures are mostly in the 60s this
late morning. The surface map features a frontal boundary located
well to our northwest, with the boundary stretching from WI through
KN. This cold front will be a weak player in tonight`s weather. It
is expected to push through the area early Wednesday morning.
Showalter values should remain positive with little in the way of
cape overnight. Thus, just expecting some shower activity but pops
and qpf will be on the low side.

Surface high to our north will be in control on Wednesday into
Thursday with a light northerly and northeasterly flow. The next
chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will occur on Thursday
night. At that time, a warm front will be lifting northward through
our area.

For the near term temps, values will run close to normal through the
period. Humidity levels will start to tick upward with that Thursday
night warm fropa.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

In the extended forecast, Morning showers and a thunderstorm or two
will still be around for Friday morning. Following this, height
rises will prevail with the primary boundaries remaining well to the
west across the Plains states. Note however, that the weekend looks
somewhat breezy as the southerly flow increases with pressure
gradients expected to tighten. This will lead us into the next
frontal system interaction which looks like Monday. Surface low will
take a far northerly track and weaken as it moves into Canada.
Trailing cold front looks weak with mid level jet well north.
Instability levels look considerable but shear and organization are
rather weak. Maybe a marginal risk by then, a lot could change.

For the extended temperatures, its looking warm and you`ll notice
the increase in humidity. So much so that our lows should hold in
the lower to mid 60s through the period. Highs generally in the
lower 80s, a little cooler on Monday afternoon with the added clouds
and showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Mainly VFR conditions for this TAF cycle, however a front will
pass through the area tonight bringing light rain and brief MVFR
cigs. VFR should return by mid-morning for all terminals. Breezy
winds from this afternoon should relax over the next couple of
hours, remain 10 kts or less and shift to the north through the
night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      56  75  48  76 /  30   0   0  10
Clarksville    54  72  44  73 /  50   0   0  10
Crossville     51  69  42  72 /  30  10   0   0
Columbia       54  76  47  76 /  10   0   0  10
Cookeville     52  70  44  72 /  40   0   0  10
Jamestown      51  69  41  73 /  50   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   54  75  47  75 /  10   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   54  76  46  77 /  20   0   0  10
Waverly        55  73  47  73 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Unger