Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 141812
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1112 AM PDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest Thursday
bringing an extended period of very warm and dry weather to the
region through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday: There is not a lot of weather to talk
about for the next several days. A ridge is building along the
coast and leading to a dry, warm period. The Inland Northwest can
expect plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will warm warm few degrees
from previous day before stabilizing over the weekend and through
early next week. Highs for the period will start in the mid 40s
to 50s and reach 60s by Saturday. Some areas in the Central Basin
could reach low 70s by the start of the week. With these warm
temperatures, snow melt runoff will bring localized rises on area
stream creeks. For now, these do not expect reach impact stage.
With little cloud cover, diurnal temperature swings will large as
overnight lows are expected to stay in the upper 20s and low 30s.

Ensembles begin to bring the polar front jet back around midweek.
It will begin to breakdown the ridge and bring the next round of
precip to the region. There are several differences between the
ensembles to put a lot of confidence in the timing and amounts.
Temperatures will trend cooler but still remain above normal for
this time of year. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: As of 18z, fog and low clouds have dissipated at
Spokane International and Spokane Felts. Ceilings less than 1000
feet still remain between Coeur d`Alene and Sandpoint, but the mid
March sunshine will erode this cloud deck by 20z. High resolution
models that comprise the HREF struggle to produce radiation fog
and low clouds accurately, and performed poorly this morning. MOS
guidance from the NAM hint at the potential for fog and/or
broken low clouds at COE and SZT which looks reasonable given the
trends of the last few nights. As the air mass continues to warm
under strong high pressure, the coverage of valley fog should
decrease over the next several days. We aren`t expecting any
precipitation until late next week either, so the ground will
gradually dry out which will decrease fog potential, too.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Radiation fog
forecasting is a low confidence endeavor especially as the air
mass warms. Confidence is high that Wenatchee, Moses Lake, Omak,
and Pullman will remain free of fog tonight and the next several
days. Our valley spots where cool air drains/collects overnight
will be more problematic including Coeur d`Alene, Sandpoint,
Spokane Felts, and maybe even Lewiston. /GKoch

------------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  51  31  55  34  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  27  49  29  53  33  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        29  50  31  56  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       33  55  35  60  37  63 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       27  51  29  56  31  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      27  46  29  51  34  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        28  48  31  54  35  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     29  56  32  61  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      33  55  37  60  40  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           32  56  35  61  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$


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