Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
000
FXUS66 KOTX 171726
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1026 AM PDT Sun Mar 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest through the
weekend bringing an extended period of very warm and dry weather
to the region. The temperatures will cool and a chance of
precipitation returns next Wednesday onward, including mountain
snow into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The weather forecast through Tuesday will feature lots of sun,
nearly clear skies, and well-above normal daytime temperatures
across the Inland Northwest. If you`re looking for an excuse to
head outdoors, here`s your nudge. Don`t forget the water and
sunscreen; it`s been a while since we`ve seen so much sun.
Temperatures in the 60s and low 70s will be common with overnights
dipping into upper 30s and low 40s.
The ridge of high pressure will begin to weaken by midweek,
introducing cooler temperatures and a return of chances of
precipitation. When consulting the ensemble model guidance, there is
22% of the guidance that is in favor of this quicker moving trough
Wednesday into Thursday. The ridge will flatten to the southeast
with the approaching trough. A westerly flow will create a shadow
effect across the central Basin, leaving the Cascades, northeast
Washington and north Idaho as the best chances for measurable
precipitation. Nothing anomalous with regard to precipitation or the
available moisture on the ensemble charts. By late week (Thur/Fri),
the 850mb temperatures begin to cool. Compared with today`s
temperature (+10C to +12C), we will be faced with near 0C. Given the
time of year and sun angle, don`t expect much in the way of snow to
accumulate, but yes we will once again be looking at a rain/snow mix
for our lower valleys as snow levels drop to near 3200 feet.
Friday, additional snow accumulation for our mountain passes looks
very reasonable. Right now the NBM gives Stevens Pass a 25% chance
for over 4 inches of snow and 15% chance for over 6 inches; Sherman
Pass a 11% chance for more than 4 inches; Lookout Pass a 25% chance
for over 6 inches and 10% chance for more than 8 inches.
The westerly flow aloft will remain settled over the region into
next weekend, leaving the Northwest in an unsettled pattern once
again for several days. Temperatures will trend cooler and more
seasonable for mid-late March. /Dewey
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure will result in VFR conditions for local
and regional airfields for the next 24 hrs. Locally breezy
drainage winds near COE early today, but otherwise winds will be
light and diurnally/terrain driven.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in
VFR conditions.
------------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 67 41 68 41 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 66 40 65 40 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Pullman 67 42 68 43 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Lewiston 70 45 73 45 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Colville 69 38 68 38 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Sandpoint 62 39 61 39 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
Kellogg 67 44 66 43 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Moses Lake 71 41 72 42 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 72 48 72 46 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 74 44 73 43 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$