Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 250352
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1052 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Water vapor imagery indicates a lead shortwave trough and
associated synoptic-scale ascent that is resulting in widespread
rainfall across the Southern Plains early this afternoon. As this
shortwave trough departs to the northeast, a more significant
shortwave trough will lift into the Plains. In response, intense
cyclogenesis will occur across eastern Colorado. The ~980 mb
surface low will advance eastward into southwest Kansas in tandem
with a dryline/Pacific front late this afternoon into the evening.

Note that because of the aforementioned lead wave, today does not
have the appearance of a typical severe weather day with abundant
cloud cover/cool temperatures. However, given the rather dynamic
nature of the system (i.e., strong wind fields) and continued
low-level moisture advection, there is still a reasonable chance
of enough recovery for redevelopment of intense thunderstorms
later this afternoon and evening.

As dryline advances eastward late afternoon into the evening,
critical fire weather conditions are likely west of the dryline
near the 100th meridian. Critical fire weather conditions may
split the first row of counties given the dryline will be very
close to the 100th meridian during the worst fire weather
conditions.

Ahead of the sharpening dryline, low-level theta-E advection atop
steepening lapse rates aloft will result in MLCAPE of ~700 to
1200 J/kg by late afternoon into the evening. Combined with
effective bulk shear of ~50 to 60 knots, this will be an
environment that is more than sufficient for supercells. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the
dryline as synoptic-scale ascent weakens convective inhibition.

The primary hazard is large hail given significant cloud layer
shear (~100 knots) and low freezing level heights. The limiting
factor for a more robust risk for severe weather is the lack of
low-level moisture (dew points in the low to mid 50s deg F) and
the narrow instability corridor ahead of the dryline (owing to the
cloud cover from the current convection). However, if a robust,
surface-based supercell is able to maintain itself into the
evening hours as the low-level jet strengthens to 55 to 65 knots,
there will be a tornado risk given the large, looping hodographs
in the low-levels (i.e., increasing low-level shear and attendant
storm relative helicity) and continued moisture advection.

Thunderstorms will likely consolidate/develop into a few clusters
or line segments with at some risk of severe weather continuing
into southeast Oklahoma due to the intense low-level jet. Damaging
wind gusts may become the primary hazard at that time.

The Canadian cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma Monday morning
with a much colder air mass behind it. Nearly steady or falling
temperatures are expected in the post-frontal air mass as the front
advances to the southeast on Monday. Temperatures by Monday
afternoon will range from the 30s (northwest Oklahoma) to near 70
deg F (southeast Oklahoma).

With the colder air mass in the place, as the mid/upper-level low
moves across Kansas, wrap-around snow may into northwest Oklahoma
Monday afternoon. Surface temperatures will likely be above
freezing, so no impacts from the snowfall are expected.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A widespread freeze is likely both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings
across at least the northern two-thirds of the area as the
relatively cool and dry air mass remains in place.

The cool air mass will persist through the middle part of the
week with a broad-scale trough across the Plains. There will also
be a low chance of rain (perhaps a rain/snow mix in some
locations) by midweek as an embedded shortwave trough approaches
from the west. At this time, precipitation amounts look quite
light (if we see precipitation).

Rising mid-level heights will result in much warmer weather by the
latter half of the week into the following weekend.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Scattered thunderstorm will move across southeastern Oklahoma
tonight. Strong and gusty south winds will become southwest then
eventually northwest on Monday when a very strong surface low
pressure moves eastward across central Kansas. VFR conditions are
expected outside of thunderstorms and low ceilings at DUA. Low
stratus is expected to arrive in northwestern Oklahoma Monday
afternoon with flurries possible.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  50  63  31  52 /  50  10   0   0
Hobart OK         44  56  30  54 /  20  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  50  66  35  57 /  60   0   0   0
Gage OK           35  40  24  51 /  10  30   0   0
Ponca City OK     50  65  29  49 /  50  10  10   0
Durant OK         54  70  36  58 /  90  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for OKZ004>042-044>046-050.

TX...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09


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