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000
FXUS64 KOUN 120354
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1054 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A breezy northwest wind will become light and variable this evening,
before transitioning to a south wind overnight into early Friday. As
the pressure gradient tightens Friday, surface winds will become
breezy and gusty by afternoon.  The initial return of near-surface
moisture will be rather meager with surface high pressure situated
over the western Gulf.  Parts of northwest Oklahoma is expected to
have rather low afternoon humidity which will elevate fire weather
conditions for a few hours in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A shortwave trough will move from the Baja region into the southern
and central Plains late Friday into Saturday.  This will result in
an increase in high clouds as well as deeper moisture return from
the western Gulf and southern Texas.  Although temperatures will
become very warm over the weekend, especially by Sunday, the
increase in moisture will keep afternoon humidity levels from
falling too far. The exception may be across parts of west central
and northwest Oklahoma, where drier air may remain behind a weak
surface trough.

Model guidance continues to indicate the potential for severe storms
mainly late Monday afternoon into the overnight hours.  The risk
will occur as a dryline takes shape across the eastern Texas
Panhandle or far western Oklahoma. As a strong trough/upper low
approaches from the west, a capping inversion should be removed
sufficiently for thunderstorm development. Instability east of
the dryline may be characterized by CAPE values around 2000+ j/kg
with favorable wind fields for supercell development. It remains
possible that widely scattered severe storms develop initially on
or near the dryline, then transition to more of a linear mode.

The system Monday should be progressive enough to allow drier air to
overspread much of Oklahoma by Tuesday.  Another system will begin
to influence the area by Thursday.  It appears this system will also
increase the risk of severe weather too.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions to continue.

Light winds overnight will increase from the south Friday morning
and become gusty by mid/late morning. Gusts above 25kts likely.
Skies will remain clear through the day with some high clouds
south by late in the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  45  77  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         43  80  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  47  81  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           42  82  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     40  77  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         46  77  55  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30