246
FXUS63 KPAH 181451
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
951 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and thunderstorms may affect the region today,
  especially west Kentucky, while Sunday and Monday should be
  dry.

- An active weather pattern sets up next week, with strong to
  severe thunderstorms possible during the mid week period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The Dense Fog Advisory expired as scheduled at 8 AM. Low clouds
will gradually lift and scatter through the morning. The new
morning guidance does not develop much convection over the Quad
State today, but will leave the PoPs alone for now

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Calming winds and recent rainfall provide favorable conditions
for dense fog development through the early morning. However,
periods of cloud cover will limit the duration and coverage of
dense fog. With moderate support from the HREF and a few sites
below a mile by midnight, a Dense Fog Advisory was issued,
though only Carbondale and Hopkinsville have dropped to a
quarter mile vsby so far. Trends have been towards lower vsbys
over the past couple hours but it is likely the end result will
be a very hit or miss dense fog map.

An upper low is crossing from Arkansas towards Tennessee, with
a few showers and storms in northeast Arkansas that might sneak
in but will generally stay south. Shower/storm chances increase
to the chance range later today, mainly in southern portions of
Western Kentucky, associated with the upper low. Following its
departure, ridging moves through Sunday into Monday keeping
conditions dry as temperatures trend warmer. An upper level low
moves ENE towards Wisconsin Monday, keeping precip to the
northern fringes of the CWA Monday night.

Active weather reaches the area late Tuesday, continuing
through the remainder of the week. Low pressure develops in the
lee of the Rockies Monday night, deepening and progressing
northeastward towards the northern Great Lakes on Wednesday.
Breezy southerly winds ahead of the front will bring plenty of
moisture to the Quad State Tuesday with highs a summer-like
upper 80s to near 90. Models have nudged closer to a Tuesday
night to Wednesday morning timing for a boundary, bringing
showers and storms, with a stronger cold frontal passage later
Wednesday. Strong storms and the possibility of some severe
storms remains. The line-normal and progressive nature of the
storm line should keep flooding issues limited despite the ample
rainfall that has already occurred this month.

Late week precip chances remain due to an impulse in the south
and another system in the Northern Plains which might send
another front through the forecast area. Ensemble spread
increases following the Tuesday-Wednesday system so confidence
in late next week is low.

Following morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, highs max
out near 80 to the lower 80s today. A warming trend brings highs
to the upper 80s Sunday and Monday with a few 90s possible
Tuesday. Lows Monday and Tuesday night remain elevated in the
upper 60s to near 70. Temperatures cool slightly following the
midweek front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Shallow dense fog and low cigs, which has resulted in LIFR
conditions at several sites, will clear up within the first
hour or two of the TAF period. Winds will be light today and
cigs primarily around 4-5 kft. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon will be focused in Western
Kentucky, but KPAH/KOWB are in the slight chance range along
with portions of neighboring states in the Quad State. Calm
winds and clear skies tonight will allow for the possibility of
fog.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL