Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FNUS73 KPAH 231010
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Copperous Branch...USFS SHAWNEE NF
National Weather Service Paducah KY
510 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on March 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

In the wake of a cold frontal passage, gusty north winds this
morning should gradually subside through the afternoon as minimum
relative humidity dips into the 25 to 30 percent range. Good
transport within a modest mixed layer should yield good smoke
dispersion by the afternoon.

On Sunday, the combination of dry fuels, increasing southerly winds,
and minimum relative humidity in the 25 to 30 percent range will
make for elevated fire potential by afternoon. Smoke dispersion
won`t be as good though with a more shallow mixed layer expected.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........38 at ignition...Max 53.
RH..................70 percent at ignition...Min 28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds north at 17 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    North winds 12 to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL at ignition...maximum 3900 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....North 16 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /54700 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /65600 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............38  41  43  47  49  51  53  53  53
RH..............70  59  53  43  37  32  28  28  28
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..17  16  15  15  14  14  14  13  12
20 FT wind gust.25  24  23  23  21  21  20  18  17
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.9
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE
Transp wind spd.25  24  23  22  22  20  20  17  16
Haines index....4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..55  53  57  57  66  61  63  58  55
Ventrate Cat....FR  FR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD  FR  FR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 34.
RH..................Max 66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northeast winds 7 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    east 8 to 10 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 15 mph shifting to the east
                    around 14 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (48400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............52  49  46  42  40  40  39  38  37  36  36  35
RH..............32  37  43  50  55  55  54  57  59  61  59  64
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..10  9   8   8   7   7   8   8   9   9   8   10
20 FT wind gust.16  14  12  13  10  12  13  13  13  14  13  14
Mix hgt (kft)...3.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6
Transp wind dir.NE  N   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.15  10  8   9   9   10  10  13  12  13  14  14
Haines index....5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..48  4   3   3   3   4   4   5   5   6   6   7
Ventrate Cat....FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 60.
RH..................Min 26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 8 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 12 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (47900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............35     35     43     49     56     60
RH..............64     64     45     36     27     26
20 FT wind dir..E      E      E      SE     SE     SE
20 FT wind spd..8      10     12     12     12     13
20 FT wind gust.13     14     18     17     17     18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6    1.2    1.8    1.9    2.5    2.8
Transp wind dir.E      E      E      E      SE     SE
Transp wind spd.12     16     16     17     18     20
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6      17     25     29     39     48
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR

$$
Forecaster...WFO PADUCAH
Requested by...Tyson Taylor
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2408229.0/PAH
.DELDT 03/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL tyson.taylor@usda.gov


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