195
FXZS60 NSTU 070107
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
207 PM SST Mon May 6 2024

.DISCUSSION...
The latest satellite observations together with lightning cast
imageries show clusters of thunderstorms within the area. These
thunderstorms are likely associated with the convergence zone over
the area. A high pressure system centered southeast juxtaposed to
a low pressure system to the southwest creates a convergence zone
in the area, keeping unstable conditions over the islands. Model
data together with the latest upper air observations (RAOB) from
this afternoon (07/00Z) shows the aforementioned convergence zone
remaining stationary in the area through at least Thursday. This
will likely keep moisture and gentle north-northwest winds for
this time frame. However, model data shows the aforementioned low
pressure system exiting the region by Thursday night, decreasing
winds to a variable breeze on Thursday night through Friday.

By Friday night into the weekend, a broad high pressure system to
the southwest will generate moderate to fresh trades Saturday
night through the new week. This feature is likely embedded with
passing showers for this time frame.

Therefore, expect numerous showers with possible thunderstorms and
a gentle north to northwest breeze tonight through Thursday,
showers decreasing to scattered with fresh east-southeast winds
for the weekend into the new week.

&&

.Marine...
Manual observations of seas at the break of dawn showed waves
reaching the roads near the coastline. Observations beyond the
reef was more calm and serene. However, showing on the latest
model data is a long period (>15 seconds long) swell from the
south. These long periods are indicative of much higher surfs and
strong rip currents. Hence the issuance of the high surf advisory
earlier this morning for mainly the south and west facing shores
through at least Tuesday. Model solutions are showing this swell
retreating to the south-southeast as the winds becoming a gentle
breeze late Tuesday throughout the week. Nonetheless, models are
showing another set of long period south swells reaching
shorelines by at least Thursday. Additionally, moderate to fresh
tradewinds are expected for the long term forecast period.
Thunderstorms in the area will likely elevate seas and winds
nearby. Thus, the advisories for high surfs and small crafts will
remain in effect through at least Tuesday.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

JTAllen