020
FXUS64 KSHV 291859
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
159 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Weak upper-level ridging to prevail through the short-term period
allowing for dry conditions areawide. Light and variable winds
overnight to remain light and out of the southeast around 5 mph on
Tuesday due to a relaxed pressure gradient across the region.
High temperatures are forecast to climb into the 80s on Tuesday,
falling into the low to mid 60s on Tuesday night.

With light southerly flow, a weak surface boundary lingering a
across the region, and a moist airmass in place from recent
rainfall, fog may be an issue tonight. For this forecast package,
went ahead and made mention of widespread fog areawide tonight.
/05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Southerly flow to increase on Wednesday as the pressure gradient
tightens across the region. Additionally, with near zonal flow
aloft, moisture to increase allowing for mostly cloudy skies
areawide. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
during the afternoon along a lingering frontal boundary that is
forecast to lift north with high temperatures in the warm sector
behind the front to climb into the mid 80s.

A surface low across the Central Plains will lift northeast on
Thursday leaving a frontal boundary in its wake that will push
south across the ArkLaTex on Thursday night bringing another round
of widespread convection across the region.

Impulses moving downstream within a southwest upper-flow pattern
interacting with a remnant frontal boundary across the ArkLaTex
will maintain a chance for scattered convection through the
remainder of the work week into the weekend. Storms producing
locally heavy rainfall will be possible each day. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, mid&upper level decks have cleared
all but KMLU. The low decks are lifting/scattering for all our TX
sites, and likewise into AR/LA this aftn with better warming.
Weak surface high in the wake of nocturnal convection is
basically from the rain cooled air. No wind flow around an air
mass this go around. SFC wind will remain light & var for us with
SW flow aloft off the deck and generally W/SW for climb out and
FLs. Overnight, wet ground and near calm wind will bring LIFR/IFR
mostly for FG/BR, which will improve quicker tmrw w/ better sun.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  87  66  88 /   0  10  10  40
MLU  64  84  62  87 /  10   0   0  30
DEQ  58  85  61  85 /   0   0   0  30
TXK  62  86  64  87 /   0   0   0  30
ELD  60  85  61  88 /  10   0   0  30
TYR  62  86  66  85 /   0  10   0  40
GGG  62  87  66  86 /   0  10   0  40
LFK  63  87  67  85 /   0  20  10  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...24