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000
FXUS64 KSHV 111141
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
641 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Vigorous upper trough directly ovhd attm and will continue to
quickly lift out to the north and east today. Cold front in
association with this trough has moved through all but our extreme
eastern zones early this morning and this boundary will continue
making quick progress eastward as well. The same can be said about
the perception across our region as we continue to see light
precipitation ongoing across portions of SW AR and NC LA. Given
that this forecast becomes valid at 7am this morning, held only
slight chance pops across portions of SC AR and far NE LA only
through 15z. Did cancel the remaining portion of the Flood Watch
that was due to expire at 7am this morning. Clearing line should
rapidly follow the exiting of the upper trough and all that is
left is a very tight pressure gradient across our region this
morning. This gradient is tighter across our eastern half today
but will let the Wind Advisory ride that was issued on Wed for our
entire region with sustained northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with
higher gusts. Stayed on the warmer side of guidance temperature
wise today with the clearing skies despite the strong northwest
winds.

For tonight, sfc ridge axis should move directly ovhd after
midnight with winds becoming light. With clear skies, this should
result in ideal radiational cooling conditions and therefore went
a little below NBM temps tonight.

Likewise, with a very dry airmass in place for Friday and with the
sfc ridge moving east of our region resulting in returning
southerly winds, went a little above NBM forecast max temps for
Friday as we continue the drying trend across our region.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

The much needed drying trend will continue through the upcoming
weekend as our upper trough gets replaced with upper ridging
across the Southern Plains and Lower Miss Valley. The ridge does
begin to flatten out somewhat by late weekend before it
strengthens again and migrates east as our next upper level storm
system moves into the Four Corners Region of the Country. At this
time, progs are in pretty good agreement that due to our proximity
of the upper ridge, the first in a series of disturbances across
the Intermountain West will lift out and mostly miss our region to
the north and west. NBM appears too west to begin the week so
dialed back pops slightly for Monday into Monday Night. As the
trough to our west reloads by the middle and end of next week,
southwesterly flow aloft does begin to amplify enough such that
widely scattered to scattered convection will be possible across
our region but this pattern shift does not appear to be
significant enough either with severe weather or heavy rainfall
wide to suggest that the overall drying trend will continue
through much of next week. Something else that will continue is
the warming trend as afternoon high temperatures next week will be
well into the 80s and even pushing 90 degrees in a few locations.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

MVFR ceilings will persist across South Central Arkansas and
Northeast/North Central Louisiana, including KELD and KMLU, for
the first few hours of the period. However, the clouds should
quickly exit the area as an upper level trough departs to the east
allowing clear skies to prevail for the remainder of the TAF
cycle. Gusty northwest winds are also expected areawide during the
daytime hours. Sustained speeds of 15 to 20 kts are likely and
gusts in excess of 35 kts are possible, especially across
Louisiana and Southern Arkansas. Wind speeds should diminish below
10 kts at all terminals after 12/00z

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  48  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  74  45  76  51 /  20   0   0   0
DEQ  71  39  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  72  43  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  73  43  76  51 /  20   0   0   0
TYR  73  48  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  73  46  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  76  46  80  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...09