763
FXUS64 KSHV 080504
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1204 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Small evening update to increase overnight PoPs based on some
of the evening high-res guidance. This increase was also due to
the cap erosion seen on the 00z sounding.

/44/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Active weather will continue across the Four State Region through
the rest of the week with above average temperatures. This is due
to prolonged southerly surface winds maintaining moist air inflow
combined with mostly wet antecedent soils downstream, keeping dew
points in the lower 70s. Temperature maximums/minimums will reach
the lower 90s/lower 70s as a result. Precipitation will remain
possible through most of the rest of the week due to a lingering
frontal boundary that serves to focus thunderstorm activity and
key atmospheric ingredients for severe thunderstorms (large
hail/damaging winds possible) into a corridor across northeast
Texas into southern Arkansas on Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Uncertainty remains with the spatiotemporal details of
Wednesday`s convection and its magnitude across the area,
according to the latest high-resolution guidance, while Thursday
afternoon convection will occur further south of the I-20
corridor. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Frontal passage by the end of the week will provide a break in
active weather and above average temperatures through the weekend
before precipitation chances return next week. This is due to
quasi-zonal flow aloft with a weak cutoff low drifting east in
that flow across the Four Corners into the Southern Plains. This
low will continue to slowly drift over drier air as surface
ridging traverses the Intermountain West, finally introducing
northerly winds and seasonable temperatures (maximums in the lower
80s/minimums in the mid-60s) by Friday. Surface ridging will
quickly begin to shift east across the Mississippi River by
Sunday, reintroducing southerly surface winds and precipitation
chances by early next week. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

MVFR ceilings rapidly returning attm across our airspace and
should see these conditions prevailing by the next 2-4 hours.
Added VCTS to the TYR/TXK terminals for the next 2-4 hours given
convective trends with a weak boundary in place. Otherwise, should
see MVFR ceilings climb to low VFR variety by late morning into
the afternoon before scattering out all together by late
afternoon. Introduced VCTS at the TYR/GGG/TXK and SHV terminals
this evening with scattered strong to severe convection expected
to develop along the same boundary towards the tail end of the
06z TAF period. Stronger pressure gradient in place today will
result in stronger S winds today with sustained winds near
10-14kts with gusts upwards of 25kts beginning after sunrise
towards mid morning and continuing through the day.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  91  72  89 /  10  20  40  40
MLU  73  91  72  89 /  10  10  30  40
DEQ  67  86  61  84 /  30  40  50  30
TXK  73  91  67  86 /  20  30  60  30
ELD  71  89  66  86 /  10  20  60  30
TYR  74  89  70  86 /  10  30  30  40
GGG  74  89  70  87 /  10  30  30  40
LFK  73  90  73  91 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...13