Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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423 FXUS64 KSJT 291902 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 202 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Quiet forecast for this afternoon across West Central Texas, but with a chance of storms returning as quickly as late Tuesday afternoon. Surface dewpoints climbing into the low to mid 60s by sunrise Tuesday morning, and when combined with returning south winds, will help keep overnight lows more mild. Lows tonight likely staying in the low to mid 60s. More unstable on Tuesday afternoon as dryline becomes better established. Not a lot of upper level support but with a bit of convergence along the dryline and with CAPE values climbing into the 2500-3500 range, a few severe storms are possible that may creep into the western Concho Valley or western Big Country before 00Z. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 The dryline is forecast to advance to just west of our area, across the Trans-Pecos region and Permian Basin by late afternoon. SBCAPE values will increase to 2500 to 3500 J/KG by late afternoon east of the dryline. Initially, quite a bit of convective inhibition is expected across the region, which should hinder convective development. By late afternoon or early evening as we reach peak heating, the cap should be breached, and isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the dryline, just to our west. Some of this activity may move into our western counties, with most of these storms dissipating by mid to late evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. On Wednesday, the dryline is forecast to once again advance east and remain across the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos region, maybe just slightly farther west than what we are expecting Tuesday. Similar to to Tuesday a very unstable environment is forecast to develop east of the dryline, with SBCAPE values increasing to 3K to 4K J/KG, while 0-6KM Bulk Shear values generally remain between 25 and 35 knots. A weak upper level shortwave through is forecast to track across the region late Wednesday, which should help to initiate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms just west of the forecast area, with some of this activity tracking east across the region during the evening hours. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 80s to near 90. On Thursday, a cold front is forecasts to track south across the forecast area, with gusty north winds and cooler temperatures filtering in behind it. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front, with the higher rain chances across our eastern counties where the better moisture will reside. Another hot day is in store on Thursday with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Cooler temperatures and drier conditions are forecast behind the front on Friday. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. There is more uncertainty in the forecast as we head into the weekend as there are differences in how far south the front will progress and how far north the front will retreat. Overall, a slightly cooler and wetter pattern is expected this weekend across the forecast area. The details on the extent of any precipitation and the timing will become more apparent as we get closer to the event. Highs this weekend will generally be in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 After some early morning fog and low clouds, skies have cleared across West Central Texas terminals. This will continue through this afternoon and for much of tonight. Low clouds and MVFR cigs are expected to return to at least the southern and eastern terminals by sunrise Tuesday morning. Otherwise, mainly south winds will continue and will continue to be gusty at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 87 63 90 67 / 0 0 10 20 San Angelo 90 63 92 68 / 0 0 10 20 Junction 91 64 92 69 / 0 0 0 10 Brownwood 85 61 87 67 / 0 0 0 10 Sweetwater 87 64 91 67 / 0 0 20 20 Ozona 88 64 88 68 / 0 0 10 20 Brady 86 62 88 68 / 0 0 0 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...07