930
FXUS01 KWBC 101813
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
213 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Valid 00Z Sat May 11 2024 - 00Z Mon May 13 2024

...Wet weekend in store for portions of the Central/Southern
Plains and adjacent Rockies...

...A pair of frontal systems will bring shower and storm chances
from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic this weekend...

...Above average temperatures will spread across the West and
north-central U.S. this weekend...

A wet weekend is in store for portions of the Central/Southern
Plains and adjacent Rockies as a cooler, moist airmass has settled
in north of a frontal boundary stalled out just south of the
U.S.-Mexico border. Scattered, lighter showers through Friday
evening/early Saturday will become more widespread and heavier
through the day Saturday, with isolated flash flooding possible.
Higher elevations of the central Rockies will see some snow,
though accumulations should remain much lighter compared to the
past couple of days. Then, on Sunday, the boundary will lift back
northward through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley as a
warm front, bringing deeper moisture, higher instability, and the
potential for more intense downpours. A Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/5) has been issued for portions of
central/eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley for the
risk of scattered flash flooding, particularly where antecedent
conditions remain wet due to recent heavy rainfall in eastern
Texas.

To the east, shower and thunderstorm chances will taper off along
the East Coast Friday evening as a cold front pushes offshore,
lingering longest across Florida. Another frontal system dropping
southeast from Canada will bring some scattered showers and
thunderstorms to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes overnight Friday,
then spreading into the Upper Ohio Valley/Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic during the day Saturday. Storms will diminish
overnight Saturday as this system departs the East Coast as well.
Yet another system is forecast to follow in its wake, bringing
some renewed scattered storm chances to the Great Lakes Sunday.
Other areas of the country should remain mostly dry through the
weekend.

An upper-level ridge building over the West Coast and eastward
into the north-central U.S. is expected to lead to widespread
well-above average temperatures across those regions this weekend.
Forecast highs Saturday from California northward into the Pacific
Northwest will range in the 80s to low 90s. The focus for warmer
temperatures will shift more into the Interior West/Great Basin
Sunday. While not quite as warm, temperatures through the northern
Rockies into the northern Plains will still be well above average,
with highs in the 70s to low 80s expected. These warmer
temperatures will spread into the Midwest by Sunday. In contrast,
cooler, below average temperatures are expected most elsewhere
across the eastern and central U.S. following the frontal passage.
Forecast highs range from the 50s and 60s in New England and the
Mid-Atlantic, the 70s to low 80s across the Southeast, and 60s and
70s into the Central/Southern Plains. Areas of south Texas and
Florida will remain warmer, with 80s and some 90s forecast.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$