271
FXUS62 KTAE 061456
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1056 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

No major changes to today`s forecast were required. Fog has
dissipated and now a southerly cumulus field is getting underway.
Slight chance PoPs were introduced across northern portions of SW
GA for the next few hrs to account for light radar returns this
morning. Blakely recently reported light rain. We are still
expecting spotty convective coverage this afternoon as a shortwave
continues gaining latitude across the TN Valley and mid- level
dry air on its southern end slides through.

Activity should focus along the seabreeze with additional
showers/thunderstorms aiming to develop around Mobile Bay before
drifting north ahead of an upstream shortwave moving through East
TX. Bumping up high temperatures a couple degrees was considered
to match what was observed yesterday. However, modest troughing
aloft suggests slightly cooler readings, so left the inherited
maxT`s alone.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Patchy to areas of fog have developed across the Florida Panhandle
and Big Bend early this morning. Some of the fog has been borderline
dense in a few spots and visibilities are forecast to lower in and
around dawn. As a result, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued until
13Z, or 9am EDT/8am CDT for our Florida Counties.

As for this afternoon, it`s a MOTS (More Of The Same) kind of
forecast with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible along the sea breeze. There is the potential for one or two
of the storms to be on the stronger side with damaging wind gusts
the primary concern. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to
lower 90s around the region before cooling into the upper 60s to
near 70 tonight.

Mid-level water vapor imagery from GOES-16 this morning shows a
shortwave moving through the Tennessee Valley that will head for the
Mid-Atlantic states later today. The proximity of the H5 shortwave
coupled with good instability and DCAPE values around 700 to 900
J/kg means some gusty winds, maybe some small hail, are possible
within any of the stronger storms that happen to develop. The best
chance for rain will be across the southeastern Florida Big Bend at
first before shifting north into southern Georgia later in the
afternoon; there is a lower chance, around 20 percent, of
rain/thunderstorms along the I-10 corridor.

Patchy fog will be a concern again Monday night, especially for any
areas that see rain Monday afternoon. The one wrinkle to that would
be any high cloudiness that will move through thanks to the
southwesterly flow aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Unseasonably warm conditions are expected to continue through
midweek as mid level ridging remains over the area. This ridging
will help suppress shower and thunderstorm activity in the
afternoons, with only a few isolated storms expected across the
northwest portions of the area Tuesday afternoon. The ridging is
forecast to be strongest on Wednesday, with high temperatures in
the upper 80s to low 90s areawide. Moisture will also increase
across the area, causing low temperatures to warm into the upper
60s to low 70s by Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

On Thursday, a trough is forecast to push southeastward across the
Plains, pushing a cold front towards the region. This front will
eventually pass through the area on Friday, with showers and
thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Depending on the timing of
the front, there may be some potential for severe weather on
Friday. Favorable jet dynamics along with some low level shear
appear more likely during the day Friday, so our local severe
weather chances mainly hinge on whether or not the front is
through the area by then. A slower front would mean increased
severe potential.

A return to more seasonable conditions are expected in the wake of
the front, with highs returning to the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows
are forecast in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A few showers and
storms will be possible each afternoon, particularly along the
seabreeze.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Fog lingers around a few of the terminals, notably KTLH and KECP,
this morning but should lift in the next hour or so. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail much of the
morning and into the afternoon and a CU field develops between
4-5k feet. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible along the
sea breeze this afternoon and included some VCTS at KTLH, KVLD,
and KABY to highlight a rough time-line of when to expect them.

Fog is possible again tonight, especially for KTLH and KECP.
Considering how things went early this morning, confidence was
high enough to include some 1sm in the TAFs near the end of the
period early Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1042 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting SE winds around 8 kts with 1-2-ft
seas and a dominant period up to 7 seconds.

From CWF Synopsis...Continued favorable boating conditions
expected into late this coming week with persistent south to
southeast winds 15 knots or less and 2 to 3 feet seas. Daily
seabreezes usher an onshore wind along the immediate nearshore
waters. By Friday, a frontal system pushes into the region,
bringing returning chances for showers and thunderstorms. Winds
and seas respond ahead of this feature by approaching cautionary
levels out of the southwest. Northerly breezes at 15 to 20 knots
then arrive in the front`s wake on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible again
this afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any of the
storms that happen to develop. South to southwesterly transport
winds are expected the next several days with mixing heights between
4,500 to 5,500 feet. This will lead to high dispersions the next
couple of days, primarily across southeast Alabama today and across
the rest of the region through the middle of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Minimal rainfall expected over the next few days outside of
localized pockets from isolated showers and thunderstorms today and
tomorrow. The next chance for greater coverage of meaningful rain
is Friday when a frontal system pushes through the region. The
latest Day 5 QPF from WPC generally paints a half inch or less
across the Tri-State area, but higher amounts in the 1-2 inch
range are focused over Central MS/AL/GA. These values may slide
southward in subsequent forecasts.

In terms of rivers, Aucilla - Lamont, St Marks Newport, and a few in
the Suwannee basin remain in action stage, but continue to trend
downward. There are no riverine flooding concerns at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  67  89  69 /  20  10  10   0
Panama City   84  71  84  72 /  10   0  10   0
Dothan        89  68  89  70 /  20  10  20   0
Albany        89  66  91  69 /  20  20  10   0
Valdosta      90  67  91  68 /  30  20  10   0
Cross City    87  66  89  67 /  40  10  10   0
Apalachicola  81  72  81  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...IG3