525
FXUS62 KTAE 012303
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
703 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

The Sea breeze is currently making its way inland across the eastern
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend with isolated showers and a few
lightning strikes developing. Coverage should remain rather sparse
and will quickly fade after sunset. Another round of fog, possibly
locally dense, is expected tonight, mostly across the Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend, though it could nudge its way into southern
Alabama and southern Georgia. Lows tonight will be in the mid-60s.

Generally southeasterly flow is expected tomorrow, though another
sea breeze may set up across the eastern Big Bend. This could
collide with the Atlantic sea breeze late in the afternoon, yielding
scattered showers and storms near the Suwannee River, eastern Big
Bend, and I-75 corridor. Looking at forecast soundings, dry air
aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could result in some gusty
winds with the strongest storms. DCAPE values peak around 1000 J/kg
in the eastern Big Bend, which usually tends to be favorable for
some stronger winds during these summertime sea breeze scenarios.
Elsewhere, showers and storms are currently not expected. Highs
tomorrow afternoon will peak near 90 away from the coast with mid-
80s near the beaches.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

High pressure will sit off the southeast Atlantic seaboard
through the weekend which will lead to the chance for some
seabreeze convection. In addition to that, a couple of shortwaves
pass just to our north. This could enhance shower and thunderstorm
development over the weekend. The best chances look to be on
Saturday where we could see isolated to scattered storms in SE AL
and the FL counties but up in SW GA they may be more scatter to
widespread. On Sunday, the disturbance is a favors a more northern
track, keeping the best chances for pop along and then within
several counties of the I-75 corridor for SW GA. Monday and
Tuesday, conditions should dry out in terms of precip.

Expect daytime highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s with
overnight lows generally in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms will continue this
evening around all terminals except for ABY. The convection will
end by 01z.

Overnight, another round of fog is expected to affect all
terminals, except ABY. ECP and TLH terminals will be impacted by
possibly dense fog, resulting in LIFR vsbys (and VLIFR for TLH
with 1/4SM vsbys) between 08z and 13z Thursday morning. The DHN
terminal will be along the edge of the fog bank where it may be
affected with potentially IFR conditions. The ABY terminal may
fall to MVFR cigs, but is expected to remain VFR as it will likely
be too far north for the fog to settle in. The VLD terminal is
forecast to fall to MVFR but, confidence is low given persistence
trends which would bring cigs down to LIFR. Conditions are
expected to return to VFR by mid morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

High pressure off the Atlantic will lead to tranquil boating
conditions through the period. Light winds, generally out of the
southeast, are expected with seas around 1 to 2 feet into the
weekend. There may be a small chance of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday morning for waters east of Apalachicola.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Generally southeasterly to southerly transport winds around 10 mph
are expected each day across the area. Daily sea breeze pattern will
promote winds becoming more southerly during the afternoon,
especially over the Florida zones. This combined with high mixing
heights during the afternoon will yield good to locally excellent
dispersions each afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible Thursday afternoon near the Suwannee River and I-75
corridor and Friday afternoon across southwest Georgia. Rain chances
increase on Saturday across the entire forecast area with the
greatest rain chances over southwest Georgia.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

No changes to the forecast as minor river flooding remains on the
Lower Suwannee this afternoon and should fall below minor flood
stage in the next day or so. With rainfall amounts staying below
0.50 inches the next few days, no additional riverine flooding is
expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   67  90  66  88 /  10  10   0  10
Panama City   67  84  66  84 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        65  89  64  88 /   0  10   0  10
Albany        65  89  66  86 /   0  10   0  20
Valdosta      66  90  67  89 /  10  30   0  20
Cross City    64  90  65  89 /   0  30   0  10
Apalachicola  68  81  68  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Thursday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...KR