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000
FXUS64 KTSA 160919
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
419 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms are moving across parts
of the area this morning ahead of a Pacific cold front, and this
activity will continue east out of the area by early afternoon at
the latest. There is a very low chance for a strong or severe
storm this morning, but most activity will remain well below
severe limits. Clearing skies and gusty southwest winds will boost
temperatures into the upper 70s to mid 80s this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of the forecast period,
with afternoon high temperatures climbing well into the 80s. A
strong cold front will sweep across the forecast area Thursday
afternoon and early evening, and scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of this
boundary. The front is trending faster than previously suggested,
which will keep the greatest severe weather chances confined to
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas Thursday afternoon and
evening. Gusty northwest winds and falling temperatures are
expected across northeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon following
the frontal passage.

The front will stall to our south Friday and Saturday, with
showers and a few thunderstorms expected to redevelop north of the
boundary during this time period. The highest rainfall chances and
amounts will be across the southern part of our forecast area,
mainly Friday night into Saturday night.

Dry and seasonably cool weather will return for early next week
ahead of the next frontal boundary which looks to arrive around
Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

MVFR conditions are common early this morning across eastern
Oklahoma with VFR conditions across western Arkansas. MVFR
conditions will likely be area-wide over the next few hours
with isolated to scattered showers/storms impacting area sites
into the mid-morning hours. VFR conditions are expected to
return Tuesday afternoon behind a Pacific front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  56  87  66 /  20   0   0  20
FSM   82  62  88  66 /  40   0   0  10
MLC   84  58  86  68 /  40   0   0  10
BVO   83  51  85  59 /  30   0   0  20
FYV   79  54  84  60 /  50   0   0  20
BYV   78  57  84  62 /  30   0   0  10
MKO   83  56  87  66 /  40   0   0  10
MIO   81  55  83  62 /  50   0   0  30
F10   83  56  87  66 /  30   0   0  10
HHW   82  64  83  67 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...10