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000
FLUS44 KTSA 142203
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
503 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
503 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024


...Severe Storm Potentials Increase Monday into Tuesday...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Mainly Pawnee and Osage Counties in Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
South to southwesterly winds gusting to around 25 mph will
continue into this evening across much of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. These winds combined with warm temperatures
and humidity levels below 40 percent will allow for areas of
limited fire weather concern across mainly Pawnee and Osage
counties of northeast Oklahoma. Fire weather danger should
decrease after sunset as winds weaken and low level moisture
continues to increase.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather
  Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances return Monday afternoon and increase Monday
night into Tuesday as a Pacific cold front moves through the
region. Storms are expected to develop near the boundary across
western Oklahoma late Monday afternoon/evening and spread into the
area Monday night into Tuesday. With adequate instability and
deep layer shear in place, some of the storms could become severe
with large hail and damaging winds the main concern. There is also
a very low threat of tornadoes near the front monday night.
Thunderstorms will come to an end Tuesday from west to east as the
front exits the region. Fire weather concerns ramp up behind the
frontal boundary Tuesday afternoon as dry air surges into the
region on the heels of a gusty southwesterly wind.

The next chance of showers and storms will occur on Thursday as a
cold front moves into the region before stalling out near the Red
River.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$