429
FXUS65 KTWC 060836
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
136 AM MST Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Today will be the coolest day of the week with
less wind compared to Sunday, though still breezy. Breezy to locally
windy conditions, especially east of Tucson will continue for much
of the remainder of the week as temperatures warm up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A fairly typical early May weather pattern this week
for southeast Arizona with dry conditions and breezy to at times
locally windy conditions. For today, the most noticeable change will
be the cooler temperatures with highs for valley locations in the
lower 80s. The trough that brought the winds on Sunday is pushing to
our east but the gradients will be tight enough for breezy
conditions, especially near the New Mexico border.

As the region remains under dry westerly flow with deep layer mixing
each day as weak disturbances passing to our north, the most
noticeable aspect of our weather this week will continue to be the
afternoon breezes. Winds will tick up Tuesday and Wednesday with the
potential for some fire weather concerns on Wednesday east of
Tucson. More on that in the fire weather discussion below.
Otherwise, after the brief cooldown on Monday, temperatures will
rebound up to seasonable levels Tuesday and Wednesday.

For the end of the week into the weekend, winds will drop back down
slightly resembling more typical afternoon gustiness for this time
of year as temperatures warm to levels a few degrees above normal.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 07/12Z.
Skies generally SKC through the forecast period. Sfc winds variable
and less than 12kts thru 06/18Z, then becoming WLY/NWLY at 8-16 kts
and gusts to around 25 kts from 06/18Z thru 07/03Z, with the
strongest SFC winds east of KTUS in the vicinity of KDUG, KALK and
KSAD. SFC winds then taper off, becoming less than 12 kts through
the end of the valid period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Slightly cooler temperatures today as high briefly
drop to below normal levels following the dry weather system that
moved through the region. Temperatures then remain near to slightly
above normal into the weekend. Breezy afternoon and early evening
winds will persist much of this week, especially to the east of
Tucson. Winds on Tuesday will approach critical levels Tuesday near
the New Mexico border but the duration and geographical scope don`t
warrant the issuance of fire weather headlines at this time. Winds
have trended up a bit more for Wednesday, so if these trends hold,
later shifts will need to consider fire weather headlines for
locales east of Tucson. Otherwise, min RH values this week in the
valleys will be in the single digits to lower teens, with values
generally in the teens for the mountains.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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