National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KVEF 252008
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
108 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An incoming weather system will bring widespread
showers and thunderstorms to much of Southern Nevada and
Northwest Arizona on Friday, along with continued gusty winds
across the Western Mojave Desert. Drier conditions will return by
Saturday with a slow warming trend heading into next week. Another
weather system may approach the region by the end of next week
with cooler temperatures and a return of gusty winds possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Saturday.

Despite fairly cool temperatures aloft convection through this
afternoon as remained quite sparse. This is largely due to a
fairly dry airmass still in place along with some subsidence
behind the primary shortwave axis which moved through early this
morning. Nonetheless, a single lightning strike was detected
earlier near Hayford Peak with some additional strikes noted in
Lincoln County. Radar echoes this afternoon continue to depict
some very isolated light showers across parts of southern Nevada
and Northwest Arizona. Activity will wane quickly with the loss of
daytime heating, but a much more impressive set up begins
tomorrow.

By late tonight, a fairly strong northern stream shortwave will
drop southward across the Great Basin and nudge into the northern
Mojave Desert by tomorrow. Ahead of this feature, fairly strong
dynamic forcing along with cooling mid-level temperatures and
anomalous late Spring moisture across the area will encourage
increasing shower and thunderstorm development. Shower coverage
will increase after midnight across Lincoln County and as the
trough axis sags south, so will the precipitation coverage.
Anticipating numerous showers across southern Nevada and Northwest
Arizona during the afternoon through the evening hours, with
coverage becoming more sparse with westward extent into
California. This mornings HREF also depicts a signal for gusty
winds, especially across the desert valleys affected by the
shower and thunderstorm activity. While precipitation is not
expected to be especially heavy, this is a traditionally very dry
time of the year for our area, so forecast amounts of 0.10-0.25"
among the southern Nevada Deserts, and liquid totals of 0.25-0.50"
in the high terrain are still certainly noteworthy. Snow levels
of ~7500 feet will also mean a fresh dusting of late season snow
in the higher peaks of the Spring Mountains and parts of Lee
Canyon.

Shower activity may linger into Friday evening but will taper off
late and drier conditions will push into the region Saturday.
Temperatures will remain several degrees below normal Saturday
with breezy northerly post frontal winds.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday.

Low amplitude ridging will begin to build along the West Coast
Sunday as the weather system which moves through Friday and
Saturday begins to shift eastward. This will allow temperatures to
return closer to normal by Sunday afternoon. The ridge will expand
eastward and amplify Monday through Wednesday with temperatures
climbing well above normal and generally fair weather and typical
spring breezes. This translates to high temperatures in the lower
90s around Las Vegas and flirting with 100 degrees in the lower
Colorado River Valley and Death Valley. By Thursday and beyond,
extended range forecast guidance teases as another northern stream
trough developing along the West Coast, though guidance differs on
how quickly this system will develop and how deep it will be.
Regardless, anticipate a cooling trend to finish out the workweek
with a possibility of gusty winds returning as well.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Breezy SW winds today with gusts of 20-
25 knots. Light shower activity is already developing on the Spring
Mountains, and may spread into the Las Vegas Valley this afternoon
(20-40% chance). Any precipitation that reaches the airport will be
light, but guidance shows the potential (33% chance) for breezy WNW
outflow winds between 19z and 23z. However, the chance of any
outflow winds exceeding 10 knots from a direction north of 310 is
less than 10%. Shower activity is forecast to diminish around 00z,
with SW breezes continuing through most of the night. FEW-SCT clouds
between 8-10kft. Tomorrow, winds shift to the north and
shower/thunderstorm chances increase to 60-80%, mainly between 18z
and 01z. Gusty winds and CIGs between 6-8kft likely as precipitation
rolls through.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Isolated shower activity possible (20-40%) in the Las
Vegas Valley this afternoon. Any precipitation with these showers
will be light, but could produce W-NW outflow winds at the valley
TAF sites. Otherwise, breezy southwest winds with gusts 20-25 knots
expected, continuing through the evening hours. At KBIH, breezy west
winds this afternoon, returning to a NNW direction this evening.
Gusty west winds of 25-35 knots persist at KDAG. South-southwest
winds for the Colorado River Valley sites today, with gusts around
20 knots. FEW-SCT clouds between 8-10kft across most of the area.
Tomorrow, shower/thunderstorm chances and coverage increase,
particularly in the Las Vegas Valley (60-80% chances). This activity
may extend as far south as KIFP (40% chance) and KEED (25%
chance).

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Woods

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter