Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 242348 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
548 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Pulled back on pops across the northeast this evening. Precip
could still rotate in after midnight but radar and cams are looking
pretty dry right now. Still a lot of uncertainty regarding snow
onset in Watertown, but all guidance except the NAM does indicate
snow will move in briefly this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 327 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Latest models have trended toward an I90 and south axis for the
heaviest snow band through tonight. Per recent sat pix and radar
trends, this looks plausible. Despite this development will keep
headlines as is and evening shift can re-evaluate. We might be
overdoing snowfall a bit across the cwa, but the models do show a
band of snow making it up the Missouri valley later this afternoon
and evening, and are still cranking out warning criteria snowfall.

The snow will taper off from west to east overnight but suspect
light snow will linger a bit longer in the east than currently
forecast, so will delay end of pcpn a bit. The overnight low
temperatures will be relatively mild given low cloud cover.
Highs the next couple days should trend toward average as a cooler
airmass moves into the region behind the departing storm.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

It appears the current storm system will pretty much be history by
the time Wednesday night rolls around. May just be dealing with some
residual light snow across the eastern CWA but that may even be a
stretch. Aside from that, will be looking towards a warming trend as
we head into Saturday as good mixing develops and warmer temps aloft
move into the region. Will have to watch for some embedded energy
within the northwest flow aloft on Saturday. GFS a bit more bullish
on light snow/flurry potential vs. the EC. Current forecast has
slight chance POPs across the western/southwestern CWA Saturday
night and Sunday. Models then show upper level energy moving across
the region Monday into Monday night, with some snow chances.
Although, the models vary quite a bit on placement of this wave and
where the best snow chances set up. Have therefore not made many
changes to inherited guidance until better model agreement surfaces.
Highs throughout the extended period look to be mainly in the 20s
and 30s as there are really no signs of arctic air intrusions any
time soon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 544 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

MVFR/IFR conditions will remain in place through the taf period as
a winter storm moves across southern portions of the region. KPIR
will experience the heaviest snow and reduced visibility in
blowing snow.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Wednesday for
     SDZ033>037-045-048-051.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Wednesday for
     SDZ015>023.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Wise



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