Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 240910
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
410 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND WE
LOSE THE BEST LIFT...HOWEVER GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. SOME OF THE
HI RES MODELS EVEN SHOW ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS POPPING UP
FURTHER WEST...SO MAY BE A MENTION THAT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED
WESTWARD. FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN TODAY AS WELL. NO
MAJOR CHANGES IN ANY FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
TOPPING OUT IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. THE RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES AS PLANNED.

RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW BUILDS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE LESS CUT AND DRY. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS C ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 20 C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER
REMAINED ON THE COOL SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW. A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL...BUT LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LATEST LONG TERM MODELS MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO. A STRONG
TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE MID
LEVEL PATTERN TURNS SOMEWHAT BLOCKY...WITH A CUT OFF LOW
DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 00Z RUNS AND
PREVIOUS RUNS IS THAT MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT NORTH AND WEST
WITH SFC LOW THIS WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT BETTER LLM RETURN
INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS ALSO RESULTS
IN MIXED LAYER CAPES UPWARDS OF 1K J/KG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SE SD.
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED SVR HAS
INCREASED A BIT. ALSO FORESEE CHANCES FOR PCPN BEING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND RIGHT INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO BROAD BRUSH CHANCES GIVEN DETAIL DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS. I ALSO BUMPED UP LOWS A NOTCH THIS WEEKEND TO
ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER DEWPOINTS AT NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE
LIMITED BY CLOUDS/PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE BASICALLY DONE AT KPIR/KMBG AND KABR.
HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
PIECE OF LOW PRESSURE ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AT THE KATY TERMINAL.

MEANWHILE...WEST OF THE COLD FRONT /KPIR AND KMBG/ THAT IS SLOWING
DOWN RIGHT NOW...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EAST OF THE COLD FRONT KABR AND KATY...BUT ESPECIALLY
KATY...COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR STRATUS AND FOG MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z THURSDAY.
EVENTUALLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF KABR AND KATY DRYING
THINGS OUT AS BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTS UP TO 30 OR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE...AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 PERCENT OR LOWER
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THIS COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DEAD DRY FUELS...COULD RESULT
IN RAPID AND INTENSE GRASSLAND FIRES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI
     COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI
     COTEAU.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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