Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 242127
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
327 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A quiet night with light winds and cooler temperatures is in
store for the borderland...as a ridge of high pressure aloft
temporarily moves through the region. This will be short lived
however...in an active weather pattern for the region. Breezy to
locally windy conditions and warmer weather return this weekend
...as minor upper level disturbances move through.  Light winds
return Sunday evening...before turning windy again the first part
of next week ahead of a larger upper level system expected over
our area. This will lower highs near normal....with cool readings
possibly into next weekend as another trough follows on its heels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies dominate the picture...as continental airmass
translates over the region in the wake of our exiting upper level
disturbance. Surface dewpoints have fallen to the middle to lower
20s as a result. Latest GOES-R imagery sampling the mid and upper
levels depicts advancement of slowly building upr lvl ridge into
the region. This will mean a tranquil overnight for the borderland
under increased subsidence. It will be cooler but despite favorable
conditions for this...morning lows will end up a few degrees above
normal for most areas. Higher resolution models depict weak back
door frontal push across Hudspeth...most of Otero and east El Paso
counties from 8 pm - 12 am. This feature is very shallow and is
not expected to reach the Rio Grande.

Ridge is forced over the high plains early Saturday...as
progressive pattern carries a weak upper level disturbance
through the region this weekend. Rather flat upper level ridging
temporarily follows for another quiet evening Monday night.
Pattern remains active, but a change to more amplified variation
remains forecast early next week as building ridge ovr west coast
induces development of deep upper level feature into the four
corners and NM/west TX. Low moves out by Thursday...nearly
becoming a cut-off feature during this time. A full latitude trof
remains forecast to quickly follow in its wake later next week/early
next weekend but this feature appears to remain a trough.

WIND IMPACTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CROSSWINDS. SOME DIFFICULTY IN
HANDLING FOR NORTH OR SOUTH BOUND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. Weaker
short wave disturbance is forced over the region this weekend.
This will feature two embedded waves with subsequent development
and sustainment of modest wrn high plains lee trough
Saturday/Sunday. Given the absence of high cloud cover
expected...efficient mix down of strengthened H7 25-30 mph winds
is likely both days. With lee trof enhancement...SW winds in the
breezy to windy category will be likely area wide. Weak pacific
cold front moves through early Saturday evening...with NW winds of
similar strength expected Sunday.

WIND AND STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
Deep upper level storm system remains forecast to move over our
area first part of next week. Windy conditions are likely...and
light lowland showers/high mountain snow/isolated storms are
possible for this three day period. 1000-500mb thickness values
point to at least light snow above 7500 ft next Tuesday evening
at this juncture.  Timing is consistent with GFS and
ECMWF...and the ECMWF carries this feature a little farther north
over north NM at that time. However with both forecasts at this
juncture...winds still look to be an issue next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 25/00Z-26/00Z...
P6SM SKC-SCT250 through period. W to NW winds will decrease from 10-
20G30KTS to AOB 12KTS between 03-06Z and with direction becoming
more variable toward morning.  Winds will start to turn from S to SW
after 18Z and increase to 15-25KTS with strongest winds west of
divide.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy to windy with critical or near critical conditions almost
daily through the forecast period.  Temperatures will start to
rebound on Saturday with winds starting out light but increasing out
of the west to southwest during the afternoon to around 20 mph with
strongest winds west.  At this time it looks like the 3 hour
criteria will not be met but an hour or two of critical conditions
are possible west of divide late in the afternoon.  West-northwest
winds will increase Sunday, especially southern half of area and
this day may have better chance of reaching 3 hours of critical
conditions.  Another strong trough is expected Tuesday which could
result in greatest chance for widespread critical conditions
developing.  Small chance for moisture over area mountains and far
eastern zones remains in place for later half of next week with
temperatures fluctuating from 5 degrees above to 5 degrees below
normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 47  82  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           45  78  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              41  78  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              42  76  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              31  57  35  51 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   41  76  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             38  70  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  38  78  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               36  78  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      48  81  55  75 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               38  81  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            45  83  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              46  76  53  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  44  84  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            43  81  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          46  78  52  73 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           37  78  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   40  78  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                42  82  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               44  79  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 32  69  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               32  66  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                33  65  38  59 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 29  69  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               38  74  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               40  76  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            26  70  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  35  73  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   31  77  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              36  73  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 39  73  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  36  80  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 37  80  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          37  80  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              39  76  45  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

22/26



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