Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 312122
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
322 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
We will see isolated thunderstorms this evening and scattered
showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. For Thursday through
Sunday we will continue to see a slight chance for thunderstorms
with a warming trend each day. By Saturday and Sunday we will see
high temperatures a few degrees above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently we continue to have just enough moisture to help fuel
isolated thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening. Today`s
more westerly winds are helping bring in some drier air so
thunderstorms will struggle and should stay at best in the
isolated category. Then on Wednesday an upper level trough will
begin to slide across the area from the west to the east. At the
same time we will see another push of moisture in from the east.
These two things will help fuel an uptick in thunderstorm activity
Wednesday afternoon and evening. We will see the potential for
some strong thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon with the best chance
for strong storms east of the Rio Grande where we will see CAPE`s
(convective energy) of 500 to 1,000. The main threats will be
strong winds and large hail. Right now though we are not expecting
wide spread severe weather.

On Thursday and Friday we will see the upper trough move to our
east and we will watch an upper level ridge begin to build along
the CA/AZ border. This will give us a northerly flow which
initially will dry us out a bit. But each day will continue to see
a slight chance for thunderstorms mainly east of the river. We
will have to keep an eye on things as...on occasion we get some
"surprise" severe thunderstorms moving north to south in the Rio
Grande Valley or Tularosa Basins. Temperatures on Thursday will
be a few degrees below normal and highs on Friday will be near
normal.

For the weekend we will continue to see a northerly upper level
flow across the region as the upper level ridge will continue to
be anchored over western Arizona. In addition we will see another
push of moisture into the region from the east which will help add
some fuel to help generate more thunderstorms. We will continue to
need to keep an eye on those north to south moving thunderstorms.
Temperatures this weekend will run a few degrees above normal. For
the first part of next week we will see the upper level ridge to
our west break down and we will see some westerly winds move in a
flush out the moisture. We may even see lowland temperatures begin
to approach the triple digit mark.

&&

.AVIATION...01/12Z-02/12Z.
Mostly VFR conds (SCT-bkn076-100 SCT-BKN250) except nr hvr shwrs
andtstms.Winds S to SW  between 10 to 20 kts will occur through the
area. Enough moisture and instability exists up to about 06Z to give
isolated to scattered thunderstorms (BKN040CB 4SM -TSRA BLDU and
Wind VRB30G40KT). AFT 06Z: SCT050-070 SCT-BKN100-140 SCT200-250
WINDS SHIFTING NE-SE aft15Z 8G15KTS. sct tstms BKN050 BKN100 BKN200
with vsby 3-6mi winds VRB25G35KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A complex weather situation will exist over southern New Mexico and
west Texas as an upper disturbance and weak cold front move across
the region while slightly moist and unstable air flows into the
area. This weather pattern will bring a few showers and
thunderstorms to the Borderland through the weekend. Temperatures
will remain seasonably warm with surface winds mostly around 5 to 15
mph except for stronger gusts near thunderstorms.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 63  86  62  86 /  10  30  20  10
Sierra Blanca           59  81  58  80 /  20  40  40  20
Las Cruces              56  84  57  86 /  10  30  10  10
Alamogordo              58  82  58  85 /  10  30  30  20
Cloudcroft              37  61  43  64 /  20  50  40  40
Truth or Consequences   56  81  57  85 /  10  30  10  20
Silver City             47  78  51  82 /  10  20  10  30
Deming                  53  85  57  88 /  10  20   0  10
Lordsburg               54  86  57  90 /  10  20  10  10
West El Paso Metro      63  86  63  87 /  10  30  20  10
Dell City               55  81  54  80 /  20  40  30  30
Fort Hancock            61  86  59  85 /  20  40  30  20
Loma Linda              56  80  56  80 /  20  30  30  20
Fabens                  59  86  59  85 /  10  30  30  20
Santa Teresa            59  85  59  86 /  10  30  20  10
White Sands HQ          62  83  62  85 /  10  30  10  20
Jornada Range           50  83  55  85 /  10  30  20  10
Hatch                   53  86  56  89 /  10  30  20  10
Columbus                58  86  60  88 /  10  20   0  10
Orogrande               58  83  58  83 /  10  30  30  20
Mayhill                 44  70  45  68 /  20  50  40  40
Mescalero               42  68  44  72 /  20  50  50  40
Timberon                41  70  42  70 /  20  50  40  40
Winston                 42  75  44  79 /  10  40  20  40
Hillsboro               51  81  53  84 /  10  20  10  20
Spaceport               49  82  54  86 /  10  30  20  10
Lake Roberts            38  80  43  84 /  10  40  20  40
Hurley                  47  80  50  83 /  10  20  10  20
Cliff                   43  85  48  88 /  10  20  10  20
Mule Creek              40  83  44  87 /  10  20  10  20
Faywood                 49  81  51  84 /  10  20  10  20
Animas                  54  86  57  90 /  10  20   0  10
Hachita                 55  86  56  90 /  10  20   0  10
Antelope Wells          54  85  55  89 /  10  20   0  10
Cloverdale              49  80  53  86 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

BRICE/NOVLAN


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