Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 261107
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
406 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING FROM
DEMING WEST. ANY SNOW THAT DEVELOPS WILL ONLY BE OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE PACIFIC TO
THE BAJA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING MORE CLOUDS AND ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM STARTS OUT WARM WITH SNOW
LEVELS VERY HIGH IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING SNOW LEVELS WELL DOWN. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL AS LOW AS 4500 FEET.
HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW WHICH WAS WELL WEST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA SUNDAY CONTINUES
MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN LIFTING LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY MORNING
AND THEN OVER NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MOVEMENT WILL BRING A
BAND OF MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER IMPULSES OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE SOME DIFFERENCE IN AREAL EXTENT OF QPF
BUT IN GENERAL BEST CHANCE AND HIGHEST QPF WILL REMAIN FROM ABOUT
DEMING WEST. TAILORED GRIDS TO THIS PATTERN. VERY HIGH SNOW LEVELS
OF 9500-10500 FT WILL CAUSE SOME SNOW PACK MELT OVERNIGHT BUT DON`T
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINS OVER THE GILA...HENCE DON`T BELIEVE MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD RISK. MAIN SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE NORTH OF THE
AREA BY MID DAY TUESDAY SO EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE DONE BY THEN
WITH SKIES CLEARING. TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...NEXT SYSTEM STILL ORGANIZING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO WESTERN ARIZONA BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY SCOOP CONSIDERABLE SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE. AT THE SURFACE A RELATIVELY WEAK BACK DOOR COOL FRONT
MOVES IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY AT LEAST TO THE CONT DIVIDE BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING PVA AND DYNAMICS
ALOFT...THIS FRONT WILL ADD A BIT OF A WEDGE THAT THE WARM MOIST AIR
CAN OVER RUN AND PRODUCE SHOWERS. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND CLOSES OFF INTO A LOW OVER THE MEXICAN SONORAN DESERT
BY SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH PW`S OF .75-.90 INCHES SPREADING OVER THE AREA...SOME
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AREA POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN
AROUND 10,000 FT SO SNOWPACK MELT/FLOODING ASSUMES A BETTER
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER SNOW ANALYSIS SHOWS SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER
EQUIVALENTS ABOUT 50% OF NORMAL AT BEST...BUT STILL BEARS WATCHING.
A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
REACHES THE ARIZONA BORDER BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE MIXED RAIN/SNOW DOWN TO 4000 FEET. HEAVY
SNOW IS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...GFS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AROUND 10-20 INCHES...PROBABLY
OVERDONE SOMEWHAT BUT SIGNIFICANT NONE THE LESS. UPPER TROUGH
CONNECTED TO THE LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY FOR A
DOWN TICK IN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS.

LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
BAJA BEFORE LIFTING OUT OVER NEW MEXICO TUESDAY. THIS COULD RE
INTRODUCE SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/12Z-27/12Z...
MOSTLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING BKN/OVC LAYERS FROM FL200
TO FL350. ISOLATED -SHRA BKN120 DEVELOPING AFTER 22Z...MAINLY DEMING
WEST. SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY EAST LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW ALOFT WEST OF THE BAJA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT...BRINGING
SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE FIRE ZONES...MOSTLY FROM ABOUT DEMING
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY...
BRINGING A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE ZONES. THESE SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...
ESPECIALLY ZONE 113. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SOME LIGHT SNOW
COULD FALL NEAR THE DESERT FLOOR. TEMPERATURES BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MIN RH`S WILL RANGE FROM 25-35% THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 55-70% BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 64  43  67  40  69 /   0  20   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           63  42  64  38  68 /   0  10   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              63  42  65  37  66 /   0  20   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              65  40  64  35  65 /   0  20   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              52  35  53  28  54 /   0  20   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   62  40  64  35  64 /   0  30   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             61  39  62  31  65 /  20  40  10   0   0
DEMING                  62  41  64  34  68 /  20  40   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               63  41  65  35  68 /  20  50   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      64  43  66  41  69 /   0  20   0   0   0
DELL CITY               65  38  68  34  69 /   0  10   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            64  42  69  41  71 /   0  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              64  40  65  38  65 /   0  20   0   0   0
FABENS                  64  42  67  40  68 /   0  20   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            63  42  66  39  68 /   0  20   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          64  41  65  38  67 /   0  20   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           63  40  64  32  66 /   0  20   0   0   0
HATCH                   64  40  66  34  68 /   0  20   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                61  41  64  36  68 /  20  40   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               65  41  65  37  66 /   0  20   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 61  37  62  34  62 /   0  20   0   0   0
MESCALERO               58  36  58  30  58 /   0  20   0   0   0
TIMBERON                58  40  59  35  60 /   0  20   0   0   0
WINSTON                 60  36  62  31  62 /   0  50  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               63  40  65  35  65 /   0  30   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               64  40  64  34  66 /   0  20   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            62  38  62  30  64 /  20  50  20   0   0
HURLEY                  62  38  63  33  65 /  20  40  10   0   0
CLIFF                   64  36  64  29  67 /  20  50  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              63  34  62  26  65 /  20  50  20   0   0
FAYWOOD                 64  39  64  35  66 /  20  40  10   0   0
ANIMAS                  64  41  67  33  68 /  30  50   0   0   0
HACHITA                 62  41  65  33  68 /  20  50   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  41  66  32  69 /  30  50   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              60  39  67  33  69 /  30  50   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.