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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 240942
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
341 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS TODAY AND SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TOMORROW FOR AREAS OF THE BORDERLAND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS. FOR NEXT WEEK WARM DRY AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP CONVECTION OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY ON THURSDAY CREATED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PUSHED MOIST AIR TO THE WEST AS FAR AS
THE RIO GRANDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS TO 50 AS FAR WEST
AS EL PASO. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE
HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS TODAY MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE WITH CAPES AROUND 500 TO 1000 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM
.75 TO 1 INCH. THUS DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS CONVERGENCE
ALONG DRY LINE TROUGH AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD INITIATE STORMS.
WIND SHEAR WILL INCLUDE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS BENEATH 20 TO 30
KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT MID LEVELS WHILE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 8000 FEET AGL INDICATING RISK OF HAIL WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS 40 TO 50 ALSO SUGGESTING STRONG DOWNBURSTS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. ELSEWHERE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
SUSTAIN WARM DRY WEATHER. ON SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THUS DRY
LINE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY
TO HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTY.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG WEST COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING
EAST ON SUNDAY WITH STRENGTHENING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. THUS DRY LINE SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ENDING PRECIP/THUNDER THREAT
ALL LOCATIONS. UPPER TROUGH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFY AND MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE CWA
WEDNESDAY WHILE LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE EAST. INFLOW OF
WARM DRY AIR WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS TO NEAR 550 MB
ALLOWING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. THUS
EXPECT OCCASIONALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. EARLIER ECMWF RUNS
ACTUALLY HAD CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE BORDER CAUSING
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP LATER NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER LATEST ECMWF
RUN PLUS ENSEMBLES INDICATE ANY CLOSED LOWS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/12Z-25/12Z
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE BETWEEN
18Z AND 02Z... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS TODAY AND SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TOMORROW FOR AREAS OF THE BORDERLAND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS. A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
HUDSPETH COUNTY. ELSEWHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SUSTAIN WARM DRY
WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARM DRY WEATHER TO ALL LOCATIONS. IN
ADDITION AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST TO GENERATE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
TO WINDY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS NEAR OR
EXCEEDING RED FLAG CRITERIA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 93  68  94  68  95 /  20  20  10  10   0
SIERRA BLANCA           89  64  91  63  92 /  30  30  20  20  10
LAS CRUCES              92  59  93  59  94 /  10  10  10  10   0
ALAMOGORDO              91  59  92  60  93 /  20  20  10  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              69  46  70  46  71 /  40  30  30  20  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   89  60  90  59  91 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             91  53  91  52  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  93  54  94  54  95 /  10   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               91  55  91  53  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      92  68  93  68  94 /  20  20  10  10   0
DELL CITY               91  57  93  58  94 /  30  30  30  20  10
FORT HANCOCK            94  66  96  67  97 /  30  20  10  10   0
LOMA LINDA              86  57  87  58  88 /  20  20  10  10   0
FABENS                  93  66  94  66  95 /  20  20  10  10   0
SANTA TERESA            92  62  93  62  94 /  10  10  10  10   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          90  67  91  67  92 /  10  10  10  10   0
JORNADA RANGE           90  52  91  52  92 /  10  10  10  10   0
HATCH                   88  60  89  59  90 /  10   0  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                92  59  93  59  94 /  10   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               93  59  94  60  95 /  20  20  10  10   0
MAYHILL                 78  54  79  54  80 /  40  30  30  30  10
MESCALERO               81  45  82  45  83 /  40  30  20  20  10
TIMBERON                79  46  80  46  81 /  40  30  30  20  10
WINSTON                 82  46  83  46  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               85  54  86  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               88  57  89  57  90 /  10  10  10  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            83  46  84  45  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  87  57  88  56  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   93  49  93  47  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              90  39  90  38  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 85  54  86  53  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  92  55  92  53  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 93  54  93  53  93 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          93  57  93  55  93 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              89  52  89  51  89 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH