Area Forecast Discussion
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965
FXUS64 KEPZ 122016
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
116 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM SUNNY WEATHER
TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. A VERY WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES BY JUST A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY
BUT WESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE MORE WARM DRY WEATHER LATER NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS INDICATING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM DRY LOW IMPACT
WEATHER. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TODAY BUT BECOME FLATTENED AS IT DOES
SO. THUS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS. WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
YET MORE WARM DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ANOTHER RIDGE WILL MEANWHILE AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL COOL ONLY AROUND 5 TO 57 DEGREES WITH MONDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS SUSTAINING WARM DRY WEATHER. THEN A FAST MOVING
SHORT WAVE WITH A COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS THE REGION CAUSING NEAR
BREEZY WINDS THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 13/00Z-14/00Z...P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD. LT E TO
SE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE S TO SW AOB 10KTS AFT 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... UPPER RIDGE OVER ARE WILL GET BROKEN DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH...AFTER A 5 TO 10 DEGREE COOL DOWN BY MONDAY...WILL SEE A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS. VENT RATES WILL RANGE
FROM POOR TO GOOD THIS WEEKEND BEFORE FALLING GENERALLY TO POOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 40  77  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           37  75  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              34  74  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              35  73  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              30  56  31  53 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   36  74  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             33  70  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  32  75  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               31  75  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      41  76  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               33  74  37  75 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            38  79  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              40  73  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  36  78  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            35  75  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          38  74  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           31  74  33  73 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   33  75  35  74 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                34  75  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               39  74  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 33  66  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               30  64  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                35  64  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 33  69  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               33  73  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               33  74  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            24  70  26  69 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  31  71  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   25  75  26  73 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              25  75  26  73 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 32  72  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  32  77  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 30  76  34  76 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          32  76  37  75 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              34  76  40  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ



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