Area Forecast Discussion
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469
FXUS64 KEPZ 172148
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
248 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will bring periodic lowland rain
showers and mountain snow showers to the area into the early
evening hours. Snow levels will range between 7,500 and 8,500
feet, with a few inches accumulation in places like Cloudcroft. A
few rumbles of thunder will also be possible. Fair weather will
prevail Wednesday and Thursday. A weak upper level disturbance
will bring showers back to the area Thursday night and Friday. A
stronger storm system will affect the area Friday night into
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A broad upper low with three distinct vort maxima is centered over
SE Arizona this afternoon. The strongest vort lobe is moving up
into our area from Chihuahua. Weak instability from cooler air
aloft and modest large-scale lift is resulting in scattered light
showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially east of the Rio
Grande. These showers will persist through the afternoon in the
lowlands, and into the early evening over the Sacramento
Mountains.

Snow levels in the Sacramento Mountains are lop-sided... down to
around 8,000 feet on the west slopes, and 7,000 to 7,500 feet on
the east slopes. Expect a sloppy inch or two of snow through the
evening.

The low will slowly pull to the NE tomorrow, with a weak shortwave
trough dropping in from the NW tomorrow evening. Expect a slight
increase in clouds from this and little else.

A high-amplitude, short-wavelength upper ridge will build into
the area for Thursday. Temperatures will climb up to around 60 at
KELP, within a couple degrees of normal (58).

Then it`s back to the unsettled pattern...

A weakening shortwave trough will move across northern Arizona
Thursday night into Friday morning, with a weakening Pacific cold
front pushing into SW New Mexico early Friday. The main precip
band will be slowly falling apart as it moves in from Arizona, but
there will be a good chance for rain and snow showers, especially
in the Gila where orographic lift will help out. Liquid QPF
amounts look to range from 0.10 to 0.20 in the SW lowlands, and
0.25 to 0.50 in the Gila. SW winds ahead of the Pacific front will
keep Snow Levels at or above 7500 feet in the evening, but they
will drop to near 6,000 feet by dawn. Silver City, seemingly as-
always, will be right on the edge, and could pick up a dusting to
an inch by midday Friday. A quick inch will also be possible in
the Sacramento Mountains. For El Paso/Las Cruces...maybe a few
hundredths of rain. Westerly winds of 25 to 30 mph will pick up
behind the front, strongest in the lowlands, with gusts over 45
mph possible.

A second, stronger system will follow on the Friday morning
system`s heels, bringing rain and snow to the region Friday night
through Saturday, along with continued strong westerly winds.
Although not a true "atmospheric river" event, this system will
have a weak subtropical connection as it moves into the Desert SW,
with the GFS indicating a narrow ribbon of 1.25 inch PWs
stretching from Hawaii into norther Sonora Friday evening. QPF
amounts look to be around an inch in the Gila Region, with a half
inch in the lowlands, and up to an inch in the Sacramento
Mountains. Snow levels will be critical and are somewhat muddled
by the passage of the earlier system. Early signs are snow levels
will be in the 6,000-7,000 foot range for most of the event Friday
night through Saturday, with significant snowfall amounts possible
in the highest elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 18/00Z-19/00Z...
00z-06Z SCT-BKN030-060 SCT-BKN 080-120 BKN150-200 WITH ISOLD TO
SCT - SHRA -TSRA especially E OF an ELP-ALM line with brier 6SM
-TSRA BKN020 OVC060. Abv 8K FT MSL SHSN with lcl 1-2SM 010OVC
Otero County with isold lgt mxd ICGICIP 080150 msl. Isold -SHSN
ABOVE 8K MSL 06Z-12Z N OF SVC-ALM line. 12Z-24Z WINDS 250/10KTS
SCT040 SCT100 SCT200.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak low pressure system west of New Mexico Is moving eastward
and developing some over the region Today. It is generating a few
showers and maybe an occasional Thunderstorm but will not produce
that much precipitation. Snow amounts in the mountains will be in
the 1 to 3 range. A weak cold front will push into eastern area an
may aid precip development slightly. Winds will shift to the
northeast and east and remain fairly light. Temperatures will be
near or slightly below Temperatures will warm slowly back to near
normal. Residual moisture will keep minimum humidity values in the
30 to 50 percent range. Winds will remain light through Thursday.
Another stronger Pacific storm system will start approaching
Friday which will increase the winds and bring additional
precipitation chances into the weekend. Expect poor to fair vent
rates through Wednesday, then improve for the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 34  60  39  60 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           29  57  35  59 /  20   0   0   0
Las Cruces              32  57  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              32  52  34  56 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              23  33  26  41 /  30   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   32  56  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             29  48  29  49 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                  30  58  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               31  57  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      36  60  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               31  59  32  61 /  30   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            32  61  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              31  51  35  54 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                  30  61  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            33  58  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          35  56  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           31  55  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   32  59  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                33  60  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               34  56  35  58 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                 25  46  31  52 /  50   0   0   0
Mescalero               26  43  28  48 /  30   0   0   0
Timberon                25  43  28  48 /  40   0   0   0
Winston                 24  49  25  51 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro               29  54  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               31  54  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            23  46  23  48 /  20   0   0   0
Hurley                  27  51  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   26  54  27  54 /  10   0   0   0
Mule Creek              25  51  26  52 /  10   0   0   0
Faywood                 29  53  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                  29  59  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 29  58  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          30  58  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              31  53  33  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman / 20-Novlan



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