Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 161104
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
504 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE BORDERLAND TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THURSDAY. GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL SNEAK IN FROM THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THE
RESULT WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST RISK FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SOME LOWLAND AREAS EAST OF EL
PASO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WILL SLIDE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER OVER UT/CO (THOUGH ILL-DEFINED) WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD. INCREASING WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF A LEE SIDE LOW...BUT WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THE LEE SIDE LOW WILL TEND TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL...
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FAVOR A WIND DIRECTION IN
THE 260-280 RANGE WHICH SO FAR THIS SEASON HAS NOT PROVEN
EFFECTIVE FOR DUST TRANSPORT. KEPT PATCHY DUST IN THE FORECAST FOR
AREAS IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ALSO FOR
HUDSPETH COUNTY WHERE NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA DUST WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY TO END UP WITH A DUE-WEST WIND.

MOS GUIDANCE WINDS SEEM A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BUT
RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE WINDS ALOFT MOST OF THE DAY (20-25KT IN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER). WINDS ALOFT DO CRANK-UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES BUT THE MAIN BELT OF STRONGEST WINDS
(45-50KT AT 800MB) DEVELOPS SOUTH OF EL PASO AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND
IS SOUTH OF THE BORDER BY DAWN. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
WINDS HANGING ON ALONG EAST-FACING SLOPES IN HUDSPETH COUNTY...BUT
PLACES LIKE NORTHEAST EL PASO SHOULD ESCAPE ANY REALLY STRONG
OVERNIGHT GUSTS.

SO OVERALL WHILE IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA... BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA.

THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SEEP IN BEHIND THE TROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS/MIDWEST... THE
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ACTUALLY STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE...
LONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN SOME GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. 40S DEWPOINTS
WILL SNEAK UP TO THE RIO GRANDE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE DRYLINE
RETREATS WESTWARD.

MEANWHILE...A BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SW TO NE
ACROSS NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING A
TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS.
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE DRYLINE MIX OUT? RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS IT WILL MIX OUT TO EAST OF THE SACRAMENTO-
GUADALUPE-DELAWARE MOUNTAINS...BUT MARGINAL UPPER 30S DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN OVER PARTS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. SO THE MAIN
FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE TRANSPECOS REGION... BUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
HANG BACK OVER EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS OVER THE GILA REGION AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ALSO FAVOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE AS WELL.

THE WATERS GET MUDDIER ON SATURDAY AS ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
TO OUR EAST IS LIKELY TO PUSH MOIST OUTFLOW BACK INTO OUR AREA.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY BUT ALSO RELATIVELY WEAK PVA AS THE SYSTEM ITSELF
WILL BE WEAKENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY AREA-WIDE BUT CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL COVERAGE IS
PRETTY LOW.

QUIETER AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH MAY
APPROACH THE AREA IN THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME...MOST LIKELY BEING A
WIND RATHER THAN PRECIP EVENT FOR OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST SOME PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND. STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...PEAKING IN THE 18 TO 22
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY EAST OF AREA MOUNTAIN
RANGES. AN AWW MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR KELP LATER TODAY. PATCHY
BLOWING DUST IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...
BUT SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD VISBY RESTRICTIONS WILL MAINLY STAY
SOUTH OF ELP GIVEN A DUE-WEST WIND DIRECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORS WEST WINDS
INCREASING TO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE AT THE 20-FOOT LEVEL...
RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS BY MID-AFTERNOON. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY... AND THIS WILL ACTUALLY RESULT IN SOME GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO THE AREA FRI-SAT. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES...THE MARGINAL MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING.
QUIET BUT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SUN/MON...WITH MORE WIND
LIKELY IN THE TUE/WED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 83  56  79  58  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           82  48  78  48  78 /   0   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              80  51  78  53  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              78  48  75  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              56  35  53  35  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   80  51  77  52  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             72  44  73  46  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEMING                  80  43  80  46  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               79  46  80  50  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      81  55  78  56  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               81  44  73  43  73 /   0   0   0   0  20
FORT HANCOCK            86  52  83  55  84 /   0   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              75  47  73  47  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  83  52  81  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            81  51  79  50  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          80  57  77  60  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           80  41  78  45  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   80  46  78  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                79  52  79  55  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               82  47  78  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 68  40  62  38  64 /   0   0   0   0  20
MESCALERO               67  36  64  36  65 /   0   0   0   0  20
TIMBERON                66  36  64  35  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
WINSTON                 73  43  72  47  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
HILLSBORO               76  49  75  50  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPACEPORT               77  46  75  48  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            70  39  72  42  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
HURLEY                  74  44  75  48  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLIFF                   79  41  80  46  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
MULE CREEK              75  31  77  35  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
FAYWOOD                 74  45  74  48  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANIMAS                  81  49  81  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
HACHITA                 80  45  79  46  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          81  50  81  51  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              77  45  77  48  72 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>112.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ055.

&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN





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