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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 052048
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
248 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WARM WINDY WEATHER ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME BUT
MOST OF THE BORDERLAND WILL REMAIN DRY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS PUSHING WARM AIR MASS WITH MODEST AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE THE CWA. WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG SURFACE TROUGH PLUS SURFACE HEATING SHOULD INITIATE
ISOLATED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY FROM NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE WESTWARD. HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST STRONG
DOWNBURSTS MAY OCCUR WITH SEVERAL STORMS.

COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A BLOCKING CONFIGURATION
EXTENDING ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. THUS UPPER LOW NOW LOCATED OFF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW CENTER
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR CALIFORNIA-ARIZONA BORDER WITH STRENGTHENING
GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. WARM DRY
NATURE OF AIR MASS WILL ALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS TO RISE TO VERY HIGH
LEVELS NEAR 500 MB. THUS WINDY CONDITIONS FORECASTED FOR FRIDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S MANY AREAS. IN ADDITION WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL INDUCE A MORE
SLIGHTLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN ZONES ALLOWING FOR
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CAPES AROUND 300 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. SO
WILL OUTLOOK ISOLATED STORMS EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW.

SITUATION BECOMES EVEN MORE COMPLEX FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS INITIAL LOW CENTER OVER CALIFORNIA WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS
TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW CENTER DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AGAIN. AS THIS OCCURS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATE FRIDAY. CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY. GRADIENTS WILL ALSO SOMEWHAT WEAKEN SATURDAY WITH WIND
SPEEDS NEAR THE BREEZY CATEGORY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO INDUCING LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY
AS LOW AS MID LEVEL GRADIENTS AGAIN STRENGTHEN AND MIXING
HEIGHTS STILL RISE TO NEAR 550 MB IN THE AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE DYNAMIC LIFT PER FORECASTED
DIFFERENTIAL PVA FIELDS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHWESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY.

AFTER SUNDAY FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WHICH IN TURN
SUSTAINS LEE SURFACE TROUGHING EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND/OR TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA WITH ASSOCIATED WARM DRY WEATHER EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...06/12Z-07/12Z.
MINOR DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS WILL PROVIDE A VERY SLIGHT
RISK FOR A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR A TSTM UNTIL 06Z. 00Z-06Z SCT-
BKN100 BKN250 WITH ISOLD -SHRA -TSRA BKN070 TOPS 270 VRBL WINDS NR
TSTM 30G50KT. GNRL WINDS 15012G22KT. AFT 06X SCT080 SCT250 WINDS
18011KT WINDS BECOMING AFT 18Z 22025G35KT WITH LCL 3-6SM BLDU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
 LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES STARTING FRIDAY WITH WINDS LASTING INTO MONDAY.
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WEST OF AN EL PASO ALAMOGORDO LINE FRIDAY.
VERY SLIGHT RISK OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING ALL AREAS THURSDAY AND MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY.
MODERATE TO BREEZY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND COOLER TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 63  93  60  84 /  10   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           59  91  58  88 /   0  20  20   0
LAS CRUCES              56  89  52  79 /  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              58  90  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              39  68  37  58 /   0  10  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   57  87  51  76 /  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             49  82  42  70 /  10   0   0   0
DEMING                  53  86  48  76 /  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               51  85  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      62  92  59  83 /  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY               54  92  53  87 /   0  20  20   0
FORT HANCOCK            61  95  59  90 /   0  10  10   0
LOMA LINDA              60  90  57  82 /   0  10  10   0
FABENS                  61  94  59  86 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            59  91  56  82 /  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          58  89  57  80 /  10   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           47  89  49  80 /  10   0   0   0
HATCH                   52  90  50  79 /  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                56  90  51  81 /  10   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               60  91  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 45  79  43  69 /   0  10  20   0
MESCALERO               43  79  42  67 /   0  10  10   0
TIMBERON                41  78  41  67 /   0  10  10   0
WINSTON                 40  81  38  68 /  10   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               52  85  47  74 /  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               48  88  49  77 /  10   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            41  81  34  68 /  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  51  83  41  71 /  10   0   0   0
CLIFF                   41  83  36  74 /  10   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              41  83  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 49  84  43  73 /  10   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  49  85  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 52  87  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          49  84  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              51  80  43  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NMZ110>112.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ055.

&&

$$

05 ROGASH



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