Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 111150
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
450 AM MST Sun Dec 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer and drier weather expected through the entire week. Some
lowland locations could reach the 70 degree mark by mid week.
Windy conditions will occur on Friday and Saturday as a Pacific
system begins approaches the area. Cooler temperatures and area
wide precipitation could occur next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday westerly flow will dominate the weather
pattern. Then Wednesday into Thursday a small ridge develops over
the area. All of this combined will result in warmer and drier
weather with a gradual temperature increase over the next week.
Temperatures will peak Wednesday/Thursday under the ridge with
some locations in the lowlands reaching the 70 degree mark (nearly
10+ degrees above normal). Increasing westerly flow will keep a
drier airmass in place through next weekend.

Late Wednesday night into early Thursday the ridge begins to erode
as a backdoor cold front starts to slide east into the area. This
is where things get slightly complicated...current models show the
front stalling just east of the CWA. If this occurs then the
colder air associated with the front should stay just east of the
region BUT if the front crosses in to Hudspeth and Otero Counties
then a drastic drop in high temperatures could occur for those
areas.

Friday a Pacific trough begins to drop south and move east towards
the region. Lee side troughing will cause an increase in westerly
winds across the entire CWA through Saturday. In the long term
(next weekend) current model runs have the Pacific trough dropping
further south across SOCAL and swinging right over the area. If
this happens there is a chance for precipitation area wide.
Further model runs will help determine the position/timing of the
trough and precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 11/12Z-12/12Z... P6SM FEW100 SCT250 then BKN250.
Winds will be W to NW between 10-20G25KTS through 03z then
becoming W between 5-10KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warmer and drier weather will dominate the area as westerly flow
aloft and at the surface continues. Temperatures could reach the
70s in some lowland locations by mid week. Friday through Saturday
windy conditions could occur as a Pacific system approaches the
area. This same system could bring some precipitation to the
region. Vent rates through Wednesday will be good to very good
but will deteriorate Wednesday to poor as the as minor ridge
develops over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 69  46  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           68  42  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              67  40  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              66  39  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              50  30  49  33 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   66  40  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             62  37  60  38 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  69  39  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               67  37  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      68  46  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               68  38  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            71  43  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              64  44  63  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  70  42  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            68  43  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          67  44  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           67  35  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   67  39  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                70  41  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               67  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 59  35  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               56  33  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                56  33  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 60  32  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               66  38  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               66  38  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            60  28  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  64  36  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   66  30  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              65  28  62  30 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 66  38  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  71  37  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 70  37  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          70  39  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              67  40  66  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Pazos



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