Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 272139
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
339 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening as low level
moisture persists. On Wednesday, some drier air will begin moving
in, with thunderstorm activity diminishing and limited mostly to
the Sacramento Mountains. By Thursday and Friday, the dry air will
be in place with little or no chance of rain. Some moisture
begins to return to the area Saturday and Sunday in southerly flow
aloft. This will re introduce a slight chance of thunderstorms to
all areas again. Temperatures this week through the weekend will
warm back slightly above normal after Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Low level moisture and instability continue today with the
mountains once again firing up thunderstorms. The Gila/Black Range
look like the preferred location today with perhaps a weak short
wave moving over NW New Mexico kicking this off. Instability
parameters look best east of the Continental Divide, and latest
HRRR is moving the Black Range convection east over the Sierra
Lakes and then to the San Andres Mountains before weakening. The
model not showing much of any activity across the southern zones.

Wednesday begins a brief drying trend as upper high off the
northern Baja coast slowly drifts west and south as Canadian low
drags a trough across the Great Basin. This will bring drier west
flow across New Mexico and scour out much of the current moisture.
Moisture in the east persists until afternoon, so left a low POP
in for the Sacramento Mountains. By Thursday and Friday dry air is
well in place so all POPs are gone. Both GFS and NAM12 show weak
back door moving into the eastern CWA Friday morning, but appears
to be shallow and mostly mixes out by afternoon.

Saturday through the weekend and into next week...moisture has a
modest increase as mid level flow turns more south. Instability on
the weaker side but isolated thunderstorms should return from
Sunday through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 28/00Z-29/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT070-090 SCT-BKN150-200 through 09Z-12Z...then SKC-
FEW120. Isold to wdly sct VRB25G40KT 1-3SM TSRA BKN030-050 through
06Z and mainly over mountain areas and areas east of Rio Grande.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air has started to move in from the west and should be through
most of the area by Wednesday putting an end to the showers and
thunderstorms for at least a few days.  Temperatures will be warming
back to around 100 degrees for many lowland locations starting
tomorrow and continuing into early next week.  Relative humidities
will be falling back into the upper single digits to lower teens.
There will be a little surge in moisture going into the weekend and
early next week with isolated thunderstorms returning.  Winds will
be occasionally breezy the next couple of days and again early next
week which will bring about near critical conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 73  99  75 100 /  20   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           70  97  72  97 /  20   0   0   0
Las Cruces              67  97  69  98 /  20   0   0   0
Alamogordo              67  97  67  97 /  20   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              49  78  51  79 /  20  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences   67  97  69  97 /  20   0   0   0
Silver City             61  91  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  65  98  66  98 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg               66  97  67  97 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      73  97  75  99 /  20   0   0   0
Dell City               66 100  68 101 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            71  99  73 101 /  20   0   0   0
Loma Linda              69  95  72  94 /  20   0   0   0
Fabens                  71  99  74 100 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            70  98  71  99 /  20   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          71  97  72  98 /  20   0   0   0
Jornada Range           64  97  65  98 /  20   0   0   0
Hatch                   65  99  67  99 /  20   0   0   0
Columbus                69  99  70  99 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande               71  98  71  98 /  20   0   0   0
Mayhill                 55  87  57  87 /  20  10   0   0
Mescalero               54  87  54  87 /  20  10   0   0
Timberon                54  86  56  86 /  20  10   0   0
Winston                 56  90  58  91 /  20   0   0   0
Hillsboro               61  94  64  94 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport               63  97  63  99 /  20   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            52  89  53  90 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                  60  93  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   59  96  60  96 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              59  93  59  92 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 60  93  63  93 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  66  98  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 65  98  66  97 /  10   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          67  96  68  96 /  10   0   0   0
Cloverdale              63  93  65  92 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Grzywacz


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