Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 242021
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
321 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017


.SHORT TERM...
Showers and a few thunderstorms across the Concho Valley and Big
Country will continue to encounter much more stable air as they
move east into western North Texas. We still can`t rule out a few
showers through mid evening. Any rain that does fall should be
light.

Another area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will approach
the southern zones late this afternoon. This activity will also
struggle as it moves into the forecast area but a few showers
should hold together long enough to produce some sprinkles/light
rain through sunset.

The remainder of North and Central Texas will remain hot and humid
through the evening with scattered high clouds. Low level
moisture will be slung northward overnight by a 30 knot low level
jet, resulting in areas of stratus toward sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A deep upper trough currently centered across the Great Basin
will slowly weaken through Tuesday, but the trough axis will
remain nearly stationary. This pattern will send several pieces of
energy northeast across West Texas and into the Central Plains.
Since a continuous feed of low and mid level moisture will be
present, numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany any of
these impulses, but they will be confined to generally the
western zones.

The upper trough will begin to morph into two distinct troughs by
Tuesday night with the northern system moving east across the
Northern Plains and the southern trough deepening over the Desert
Southwest. This will allow a cold front to slide into the
northwest sections of North Texas. Large scale lift will also
increase as the upper flow becomes more diffluent, so better
rain/storm chances are expected Wednesday through Thursday. We
will keep the highest PoPs across the western zones where large
scale ascent will be the best. Unfortunately, the eastern zones
may see little if any rain with this system.

The upper trough is progged to weaken and lift northward into the
Central Rockies Friday while the cold front slides into South
Texas. We will maintain some chance PoPs across the southwest
zones through Friday night with very little chance for rain
elsewhere due to the push of drier air from the northeast.

Weak ridging aloft and dry air in the low levels will keep rain
chances low Saturday and Sunday.

A gradual cooling trend is expected through the week due to
increasing cloud cover and the arrival of the cold front. However,
the eastern zones will still see highs in the 90s through at least
mid week.

79

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1251 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/
Main concern during the TAF period will be potential for MVFR
stratus at area terminals. GFS as well as high res guidance both
show decreasing cigs Monday morning across North and Central
Texas. Right now...confidence is too low to prevail MVFR at
Metroplex terminals...but will mention SCT030 in the TAF
explicitly. Later shifts may need to refine this forecast and
potentially introduce TEMPO MVFR.

For Waco...MVFR stratus looks much more likely given the better
quality low-level moisture that is expected across Central Texas.
In fact...SREF guidance shows about a 50 percent chance of IFR
cigs. Do not believe IFR will be persistent enough at this time to
introduce prevailing IFR...but like the MVFR at KDFW...later
shifts may need to introduce at least TEMPO IFR. Cigs should
improve slowly through the morning...likely returning to VFR by
1600Z...but cigs will likely not get much above FL040. Another
question is the fog potential at KACT. Some high res guidance
(namely the RAP and NAM) shows patchy fog developing across parts
of Central Texas (including near KACT) right around 1200Z...but
given the expected patchy and short-lived nature of any
fog...left this out as well.

37-Godwin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  91  74  90  73 /   5  10  10  20  20
Waco                71  91  72  90  71 /   5  10  10  20  30
Paris               69  89  69  89  70 /   5  10   5  20  10
Denton              72  90  72  88  70 /   5  10  10  20  30
McKinney            70  89  71  89  71 /   5  10  10  20  20
Dallas              74  91  75  91  74 /   5  10  10  20  20
Terrell             70  90  71  91  72 /   5  10   5  20  20
Corsicana           71  91  72  91  72 /   5  10  10  20  20
Temple              70  89  71  88  71 /   5  10  20  20  30
Mineral Wells       70  89  70  85  68 /  10  20  30  30  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/30


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