Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 250002 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
602 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail. Wind shift with frontal passage tonight.

An approaching Pacific front will steadily veer surface winds this
evening. West winds will precede the frontal boundary, but the
gusty conditions currently across Oklahoma will remain closer to
the associated cyclone. Thus, no crosswind issues are anticipated.
Northwest winds will be in place for the morning push. Some gusts
in excess of 20kts will be possible Wednesday afternoon, but the
prevailing postfrontal line should suffice.

The front will lift a moisture-starved boundary layer, and no low
clouds or precipitation are expected to accompany it. A dense
cirrus plume within a powerful jet will gradually shift east with
the departing cyclone.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/
A band of dense high cloud cover associated with the right
entrance region of a 140kt jet is likely saving DFW from its 4th
daily record high since November. Meanwhile mostly sunny skies
prevail at Waco, but the record high of 83 looks just out of reach
as winds stay more southerly ahead of a dryline. The dryline will
approach the I-35 corridor late this afternoon before retreating
westward this evening. Winds behind the dryline have diminished
remarkably, which should limit the wildfire threat.

The unseasonably warm temperatures will come to an end as a cold
front quietly sweeps through North and Central Texas late
tonight. In its wake winds will become northwesterly with modest
cold advection prevailing during the day Wednesday. Temperatures
will be cooler tomorrow, but the coldest air will take some time
to filter into the region. Highs will be coolest in the northwest
zones where just mid 50s are expected, but some mid to upper 60s
are still forecast across the south and southeast zones. The high
clouds over North Texas this evening will gradually shift
southward during the overnight and morning hours, and finally
clear the region by sunset Wednesday. Winds will slacken by
sunrise Thursday morning and allow temps to drop into the upper
20s to mid 30s across the region.

The medium range guidance is all in good agreement that the
synoptic pattern will favor dry and tranquil weather over the
region for several days. Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail,
which will promote generally clear skies with periodic weak
reinforcing cold fronts. These fronts will serve to keep
temperatures near seasonal normals through the weekend. Highs
will generally be in the mid to upper 50s with lows in the mid 20s
to mid 30s. There will be a slight warming trend early next week
as southerly flow returns ahead of an upper low moving east out of
Mexico. This low may track too far south and be starved for
moisture for rain across North and Central Texas. Will keep the
forecast dry and continue to monitor for possible inclusion of low
PoPs across the south next Tuesday.

The extended period of dry and clear weather should serve to dry
out fine fuels, but wind speeds will remain low and limit the
wildfire threat.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    45  59  33  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                47  65  31  56  31 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               45  57  31  50  30 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              42  56  28  52  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            44  57  30  52  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              46  60  35  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             46  61  33  54  32 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           48  65  35  55  34 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              49  66  33  57  33 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       41  58  28  54  29 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

25/05



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