Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 280001
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
601 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms and most of the clouds have moved east of the TAF
sites early this evening due to increasing large scale subsidence
behind a fast moving shortwave. VFR conditions will prevail most
of the evening. However, low level moisture will remain high and
low clouds will return late this evening with the development of a
30+ knot low level jet. MVFR ceilings late in the evening will
quickly fall overnight and become IFR with even some LIFR possible
early Tuesday morning, especially in Waco. MVFR to IFR visibility
will also prevail overnight into Tuesday morning but wind speeds
should be strong enough to prevent dense fog from developing.
Cloud trends on Tuesday will be much like today, with ceilings
slowly lifting through the day.

There will be a potential for scattered strong to severe storms on
Tuesday afternoon as another upper level disturbance approaches
from the west. The best storm chances will be east of the
Interstate 35 corridor so there should be no direct impacts at
any of the area terminals but eastern cornerposts may have some
issues.

Southerly flow will continue through Tuesday afternoon with wind
speeds remaining between 12 and 18 knots along with some higher
gusts.


79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms developed initially to
the south and on the northwest side of the Metroplex. With steep
lapse rates, decent shear and a weak shortwave, these storms
produced 1 to 2 inch hail as they moved northeast. Some
mesocylones did develop but fortunately, there were no tornadoes.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows subsidence moving in this
afternoon west of I-35. Some showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible into the early evening hours mainly east of a
Gainesville to Corsicana to Centerville line, so have left
20 percent POPs there; otherwise, have left silent 10 percent
POPs back to just west of the I-35 corridor this evening.

The dryline will shift westward this evening and low clouds will
overspread the region tonight. Low temperatures tonight will be
in the mid to upper 50s west and low to mid 60s elsewhere.

A stronger shortwave is expected approach the Southern Plains
Tuesday. With a moist moist airmass over the region, steep
lapse rates and decent shear, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will try to develop if the cap breaks. Whether the cap breaks is
still in question as the NAM and Texas Tech WRF show little if
any storms, while the GFS, ECMWF and GFS do generate some rain.

A cold front will sweep southeast into the northwestern zones
around midnight Tuesday night and through the southeastern zones
by mid morning Wednesday. Winds will shift to the northwest and
north with gusts over 25 mph. Rain chances will end behind the
front and expect dry and cooler, but still near/slightly above
seasonal normal temperatures for the middle to late week period.

Southerly winds will return Thursday night and Friday. As an
upper level low moves east from northern Mexico and later a mid
level trough moves across the Plains, there will be low to
moderate chances of showers and thunderstorms Saturday through
Monday. Highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s Saturday, in the 70s
to lower 80s Sunday and mostly in the 70s Monday.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  82  53  64  40 /  10  30  30   5   0
Waco                65  81  54  66  38 /  10  30  30   5   0
Paris               62  76  52  64  37 /  30  50  50   5   5
Denton              62  80  49  64  35 /  10  30  30   5   0
McKinney            64  78  51  63  37 /  20  40  40   5   0
Dallas              65  81  54  64  41 /  10  40  30   5   0
Terrell             65  79  54  65  38 /  20  50  50   5   5
Corsicana           65  81  56  66  40 /  20  50  50   5   5
Temple              64  82  56  66  39 /  10  20  30   5   0
Mineral Wells       58  83  48  64  35 /   5  10  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/25



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