Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 111450
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
950 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

DURING THE NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE TROF CURVED FROM THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL NM...RESULTING IN A LIGHT SE FLOW ACROSS THE KS
NEIGHBORHOOD. A SMALL AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPED FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALMOST TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL KS/NORTH-CENTRAL OK BORDER. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES HAD ENABLED TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

VERY ISOLATED MID LEVEL ACCAS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO PESTER
PORTIONS OF SE KS THIS MORNING. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND 310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT LED TO THIS MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO
WANE...WITH THE ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLES COMING TO AN END AS WELL.
THE REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE S-SW. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK...SO
WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES THE GRIDS/ZONES AND REMOVE
SPRINKLE MENTION FOR SE KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NIGHBORHOOD TODAY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER...THEREBY ENABLING LOWER-DECK FLOW
TO BECOME DUE SOUTH & SLIGHTLY INCREASE. ON SAT A POSTIVELY-TILTED MID
LEVEL TROF THAT SHOULD SWEEP FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO WESTERN ONTARIO WITH
A "LEAD" MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURVING FROM WISCONSIN TO SW NEBRASKA WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SE TOWARD THE NEBRASKA/KS BORDER FRI NIGHT. WITH THE
"LEAD" SHORTWAVE SHEARING AS IT APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES THE FRONT
SHOULD STALL NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KS BORDER. THIS WOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS
N OF KICT COUNTRY OVER NEBRASKA UNTIL SAT NIGHT BUT THIS WOULD TURN UP
THE FURNACE ACROSS KICT COUNTRY WITH HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 90S.

SAT NIGHT-SUN:
A 2ND & SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO VENTURE SE
ACROSS NEBRASKA SAT AFTERNOON & NIGHT. THE CHARACTER MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KICK THE COLD FRONT SE TOWARD & PERHAPS ACROSS CENTRAL KS ON
SUN. AS SUCH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD VERY SLOWLY INCREASE IN A NW-SE
MANNER ACROSS CENTRAL KS BUT THE FEEBLE MID-UPPER SUPPORT DICTATES ONLY
20-30% ASSIGNMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KS LATE SAT NIGHT & SUN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THE INTENSE CYCLONE POSITIONED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE E/SE TOWARD
THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER & EXTEND SW ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY MON
NIGHT. THIS WOULD DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS & VICINITY ON
MON WITH THE FRONT LIKELY MAKING IT TO THE RED RIVER MON NIGHT & THEN
TO S TX ON TUE. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE INTO VERY NICE WEATHER FOR REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TUE & WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TUE
NIGHT & WED NIGHT. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING S/SE INTO KS ANY
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD SHIFT S OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MON
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

SCT-BKN IFR DECKS OVER THE FLINT HILLS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY BY
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY AS LEE LOW
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SLACKEN EARLY THIS EVENING...WHILE
REMAINING SOUTHERLY.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  74  95  73 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      95  74  95  74 /  10   0   0  20
NEWTON          94  74  94  73 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        93  73  94  71 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  73  96  72 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         97  75  95  71 /  10   0   0  30
GREAT BEND      95  74  94  72 /  10   0   0  30
SALINA          98  75  96  72 /  10   0   0  30
MCPHERSON       95  74  95  73 /  10   0   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     93  71  98  71 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         93  72  96  71 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            93  72  96  71 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    93  71  97  72 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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