Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 181738
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1138 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 333 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

Main forecast highlight: much colder air arriving late Thursday
and beyond.

A relatively narrow zone of dense fog will impact portions of
south-central Kansas and the Flint Hills through mid-morning,
mainly along/east of the KS Turnpike, due to a decoupled boundary
layer and moisture pooling along a weak wind shift. Will continue
to monitor for possible dense fog advisory issuance. Otherwise,
expecting temperatures today about 5-10 degrees warmer than
yesterday in the 50s to near 60 degrees.

Increasing low-level moistening and lift may be just deep enough
for patchy drizzle later tonight over extreme SE KS, although
suspect higher likelihood will be for eastern OK and MO. Another
relatively mild day expected Tuesday, with highs in the 50s to
near 60. A rather potent shortwave will progress across the
Southern Plains Tuesday night. It`s possible far southeast KS
could once again be on the far northern fringe of light
rain/drizzle, with much higher likelihoods further south.

Relatively mild weather continues for Wednesday. Expecting the
potential for low clouds and possible drizzle to expand north
across the region Wednesday night, as strong warm advection and
lift commences amidst moistening low-levels. Unsure if moistening
will be deep enough for widespread drizzle, so kept out of
forecast for now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

A strong cold front is still expected to move southeast into the
area Thursday, in response to a deep western CONUS trough
approaching from the west. Thursday will be the last relatively
warm day for quite some time, with readings in the 50s-60s ahead
of the front. Far southeast KS could see light precipitation in
the vicinity of this frontal passage, but temperatures should be
warm enough for all liquid.

Thereafter, a large-scale pattern change is expected, with a deep
& persistent central CONUS trough developing. This will support
much colder temperatures from Thursday night/Friday, likely
extending through month`s-end. Highs in the 20s-30s will be
common, with lows in the single digits and teens. Breezy north
winds will support even colder wind chills. While uncertainty
remains high, there is support from the ECMWF and Canadian models,
and to some extent the GFS, for light accumulating snow Christmas
Eve, as a shortwave drops southeast through the base of the
central CONUS longwave trough. Am hesitant to get too specific
this far out in the forecast given the high uncertainty, so will
run with modest PoPs for now. That said, if the current ECMWF and
Canadian model solutions verify, portions of the area could be
looking at a white Christmas...stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites for this afternoon
and evening, however low clouds/fog could re-develop again later
tonight across southern Kansas. The low clouds could drop into the
the IFR/LIFR range towards daybreak along with some lower
visibilities on the edge of the low level clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    59  38  59  37 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      59  34  59  33 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          57  37  58  36 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        58  38  58  38 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   60  40  59  40 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         58  29  57  26 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      58  30  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          58  33  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       58  34  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     60  43  60  42 /  10  10  10  30
Chanute         58  42  58  41 /   0   0   0  20
Iola            58  41  58  40 /   0   0   0  20
Parsons-KPPF    59  43  59  42 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...CDJ


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