Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 312022
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
322 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE LES REGIME WILL DISSIPATE OVER WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EVENING.  THE COLD SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT.  THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.  THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FAR WESTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT AS FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP OFF ITO THE TEENS OVER THE FAR EAST TONIGHT AND
LOWER 20S FOR THE MOST PART TOT HE WEST.  SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MN LATER TONIGHT AS WELL...AS IT SPILLS OUT
OVER THE UPPER RIDGE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER TO THE WEST INTO THE MORNING...WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 30KTS POSSIBLE.  THE FAR EAST WILL SEE A SOUTHEAST WIND
INCREASE LATE MORNING...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO GUST. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOME THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED DURING THE LONG RANGE IN TERMS OF BENIGN
WEATHER. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL GENERALLY PERSIST...KEEPING
THE PATTERN WEAK AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED. THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
BE MOST DOMINANT WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
CONUS AND CANADA...BUT EACH WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS AMOUNTS TO A LOT OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS AND VERY
LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. ANY TENDENCY
TOWARD AN AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL FLOW SHOULD BE MARGINALIZED BY
THESE QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED WAVES WHICH POINTS TO A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND MILD TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED DURING THIS TIME AS THE
FIRST AND STRONGEST IN THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GULF WILL BE CUT OFF EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MOISTURE TO REACH THIS REGION
BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. KEPT CHC POPS ACROSS
WISCONSIN WHERE THE RIBBON OF MOISTURE HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF
REACHING.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK...LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MN/WI. SOME DIFFERENCES IN SPEED WITH THE EC SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE GFS.

FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...LOOKS PRETTY QUIET. EC DOES TRY TO PHASE THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH ALLOWS A CUT OFF POST TROPICAL
SYSTEM OVER MEXICO TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IT WOULD
TAKE A LOT TO DO THIS...AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE TO
ACCOMMODATE THIS POTENTIAL. THUS...KEPT THE LATTER PERIODS DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT PERIOD. SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AFFECTING
WC WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD REMAIN VFR HOWEVER...AND DRY
UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
NO DIFFERENCES FROM THE GENERAL DISCUSSION. VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 15G20 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/SHRA POSSIBLE. WIND SSW 5G10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10G15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE







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