Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 290555 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1155 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS PUSHED 850H TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE FA. WHILE MUCH OF THE ECHOES SEEN
ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON WERE VIRGA...SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP DID
MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. AMOUNTS WERE 0.01" OR LESS...AND THAT WAS
A COMBINATION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLEET THANKS TO THE WARM AIR
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE ONLY REMAINING PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WAS NORTH OF THE METRO AND IN WESTERN WI. THIS SCATTERED PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE A
DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE BIG STORY AFTER THE
LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TODAY IS THE CONTINUED WARMING WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKING TO GO ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILES...AND AS INDICATED IN THE AVIATION PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND CEILING POTENTIAL IS LOW AT
THIS TIME. AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT...THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE SEEING DECREASING RH VALUES AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. A STRONG INVERSION WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY FORM TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PINPOINTING HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND IF IT WILL
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE EITHER LOW STRATUS OR FOG MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT
FORECAST. STILL THINKING THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT AT FOG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING OVER THE
PRESENT SNOW PACK TO HELP SATURATE THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...SO
AS ADVERTISED IN RECENT DAYS...EXPECTING TO SEE FOG THERE. WINDS
WILL TURN WESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY 00Z SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

A POTENT CDFNT STRETCHING BETWEEN TWO SEPARATING LOW PRES CENTERS
- ONE MOVING EWD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO SERN CANADA
AND A SECOND MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS - WILL PUSH THRU
THE REGION SAT NIGHT. BECAUSE THE ENERGY BETWEEN THE LOW PRES
CENTERS WILL BECOME MORE STRETCHED OUT AND WEAKENED...LESS FORCING
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ANY PRECIP PRODUCTION SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
REMOVE POPS FROM THE FCST. ARCTIC HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE CDFNT
WILL RESULT IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR SUN THRU MON NIGHT.
HIGHS WILL FALL TO THE TEENS ON SUNDAY AND TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AREA-WIDE ON MONDAY DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG. HIGH PRES SHIFTING EWD BY TUE WILL
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WHILE MORE PREVALENT
LLVL SLY COMPONENTS DEVELOP. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW DOES LOOK TO
ALLOW ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO SLIP THRU THE REGION TUE INTO
WED...BUT THIS SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS TOO STRIATED AND WEAK TO
PRODUCE PRECIP SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST. HIGH PRES THEN
RETURNS WED-FRI TO KEEP A PRECIP-FREE FCST GOING. HIGHS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THRU THE 20S BUT AM NOT LOOKING TO HAVE ANY PERIODS
REACH THE FREEZING MARK THROUGH THIS EXTENDED FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST HAS INCREASED FOR RWF/MSP/RNH/EAU BUT
REMAINS LOWER AT AXN AND STC DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF CLEARING VS
IFR CIGS. IFR CIGS AT AXN AND MVFR CIGS AT STC SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR CLEARING
SKIES TO PUSH NORTH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IFR/MVFR CIGS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT AT THIS POINT THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED THE ONGOING TREND OF IMPROVING CIGS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT FOG /MVFR/ IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN MN UNDERNEATH CLEAR SKIES. STILL
DON/T THINK IT WILL COMPLETELY FOG IN OVERNIGHT DUE TO OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. SOME OF THE FOG COULD IMPACT
MSP...RNH...AND EAU LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE NOW COULD GIVE WAY TO OCCASIONAL
MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT. VFR WILL RETURN SATURDAY
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS COULD RETURN BEHIND FROPA
SATURDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KT...BECOMING S 10KT LATE.
TUE...VFR. WINDS S AT 15-20G30KT...BECOMING W 10-15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...BORGHOFF








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