Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 220101
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
201 PM SST TUE FEB 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CURRENT CONDITIONS VARY GREATLY
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING THE BOUT OF SHOWERS FROM THE
NORTHWEST THAT WERE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
SATELLITE SHOW A MORE ENHANCED AND A BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE TERRITORY OVERNIGHT...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
FLASH FLOODING. THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO EVIDENT IN LATEST
UPPER AIR SOUNDING. HENCE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW ISSUED FOR
ALL ISLANDS UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS SHOW THE ACTIVE MONSOONAL TROUGH REMAINING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST IS SHOWN TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL OUTPUT SHOW WINDS REMAINING BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING
GUSTS EXCEEDING THIS THRESHOLD...WE ARE ALSO RECEIVING NUMEROUS
CALLS IN THE PAST HALF HOUR ABOUT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. HENCE...WILL
ISSUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR VILLAGES IN THE HARBOR AREA AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SIMILAR TO THE SHORT TERM...CURRENT
MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS...BRINGING THE
MONSOONAL TROUGH CLOSER TO THE SAMOAN ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.
SINCE THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BEYOND DAY
3...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL OUTPUT AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS WHEN CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WAVE WATCH III MODEL OUTPUT SHOW SEAS REMAINING ABOVE
ADVISORY THRESHOLD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE LARGELY DUE TO WEST AND NORTHWEST SWELLS...FORECAST TO PEAK AT
9 TO 12 FEET TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 7 TO 9 FEET
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 7 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA. HENCE...THE
ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURFS REMAIN IN EFFECT.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

&&

$$

LUTU-MCMOORE






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