Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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000
FXZS60 NSTU 250056
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
156 PM SST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F...TD05F...WAS
LAST ANALYZED NEAR 12.6S 173.6W OR ABOUT 260 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TUTUILA AS OF 1247 PM. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW TD05F DRIFTING
SLOWLY EAST...UNLIKE RECENT MODELS...WHICH HAD IT MOVING OVER
AMERICAN SAMOA BY TONIGHT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF TD05F WILL DELAY
THE UPTICK IN SHOWERS BY LATE CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE
SHOWERS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE LATEST WIND
OBSERVATIONS FROM TD05F THIS MORNING SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT
45 MPH WHEREAS THE MODELS HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THESE STRONG
WINDS. HENCE...THERE IS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM WHEN IT CROSSES THE TERRITORY. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THIS SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING INTO A
HURRICANE WHILE IT SLOWLY CROSSES THE SAMOAN ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TD05F IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE TERRITORY SATURDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AS
TD05F MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST. HENCE...EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER BY
THE NEW WEEK AS POOR WEATHER IS CONCENTRATED MOSTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F JUST WEST OF SAVAII...AND TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 3F OVER NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR AMERICAN SAMOA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE APPROACHING TD05F WILL MAINTAIN AN ADVISORY FOR SMALL
CRAFTS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IT BEING UPGRADED TO GALE WARNING
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TD05F AND ISSUE UPDATES AS
NECESSARY.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

&&

$$
LUTU-MCMOORE






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