Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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664
FXZS60 NSTU 180133
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
233 PM SST TUE JAN 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A GALE LOW CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES ESE OF MANU`A IS CONNECTED TO A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. BULK OF MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAINFALL
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF MANUA WILL SPREAD NEAR AND OVER MANU`A
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE...A MONSOONAL TROUGH OVER
NADI WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE SAMOAN ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE
TWO TROUGHS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS WILL TURN W DURING WEDNESDAY BEFORE
TURNING NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A MONSOONAL TROUGH
OVER THE SAMOAN ISLANDS TO NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND THE DATE LINE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A DIFFUSED TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL EVNETUALLY
MERGE WITH THE MONSOONAL TROUGH DURING SUNDAY. FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR
THIS SITUATION. WILL KEEP THE PREV FCST THE SAME BUT WILL PROVIDE
UPDATES AS FUTURE MODELS BECOME AVAILABLE.

&&

.MARINE...FNMOC WW3 MODELS SHOW A SHORT-LIVED NW SWELL OF 7 TO 9 FT
ARRIVING THURSDAY NEAR SAVAII AND UPOLU BEFORE REACHING AMERICAN SAMOA
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. ISSUANCE OF ADVISORIES FOR HIGH SURFS AND
SMALL CRAFTS ARE MANDATORY TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTED SITUATION.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

CB







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