Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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000
FXZS60 NSTU 230101
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
201 PM SST FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BULK OF LOW
TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HOVERING OVER UPOLU EASTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH
COMBINED WITH A TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL USHER FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE
ACROSS THE SAMOAN ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH OF TUTUILA WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD THUS
ALLOWING THE SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE-WIND FLOW TO
LINGER OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE LATEST
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANTICIPATE WET WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HENCE...
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR 10 TO 15 KT SUNDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
.MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WEATHER PHENOMENON WILL USHER MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY
TO COMMENT ON THIS EVENT. FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION
AND PROVIDE UPDATES AS NEW COMPUTER MODELS BECOME AVAILABLE. WILL
KEEP THE PREV FCST THE SAME TO MINIMAL SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
LONG-TERM FCST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...THE LATEST WAVE WATCH MODEL SUGGESTED CHOPPY SEAS OF 7
TO 9 FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 5 TO 7 FEET STARTING SATURDAY
NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE-WINDS OVER THE SAMOAN REGION AND UP
TO 120 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO WILL IMPACT LOCALIZED SWELLS AND
SURFS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING REEFS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISSUANCE OF HIGH SURFS AND SMALL
CRAFTS ADVISORY IS MANDATORY TO REFLECT THE EXPECTED SITUATION.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
.A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

$$

BAQUI





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