Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 232227
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
616 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE WEAK NORTHERLY FRESH AIR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...KEPT DRY WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN
THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
NOT TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED IN NW
OHIO AND IN...SO THINK THAT MODELS COULD HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS. WILL ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...LIFTING INTO A CUMULUS DECK ON THURSDAY. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND SOME WIND STIRRING...OPTED NOT TO GO WITH FOG. THIS IS VERY
TRICKY THOUGH...AS SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
TIMING/EXISTENCE OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COULD VARY. FOG COULD
DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY

EQUIPMENT...KTB










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