Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 262002
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
402 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses Tuesday morning. High pressure crosses
Wednesday. Warmer, more humid and unsettled latter half of the
week. A cold front arrives Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

Short wave trof axis will cross tonight a few showers. Isolated
to scattered shower wording in the grids as this works through.
The surface front will lag a bit...taking until late Tuesday
morning to clear the area. As such clouds will linger through
the morning hours before mixing into a scattered cu field. All
in all, another nice day on tap with below normal temps and low
humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Monday...

Northwest flow behind an exiting trough will bring in
relatively cool air Tuesday night through Wednesday with
building high pressure and low moisture. Weak ridging gives way
to zonal flow with weak embedded waves traversing the mid-
levels over the Great Lakes region. These mid-level features
along with warm, moist advection in the lower levels leads to
increasing PoP`s across the northern zones through Thursday
night with warmer temperatures all around.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 AM Monday...

Southwest flow through the lower and mid levels increases
temperatures/moisture and thus instability with an approaching
frontal system for the latter half of the week. Diurnal warm
sector thunderstorms and hot temperatures are forecast for
Friday and Saturday. Starting Saturday night, scattered showers
and storms precede a weak cold front as it sags southeastward
across Central Appalachia. There is some disagreement regarding
the exit of this front, as it may hang up in the mountains by
Monday, so have maintained modest diurnal PoPs/PoTs though
break in shortwaves Sunday night justifies some drying.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

VFR conditions by and large through the TAF period. An
approaching upper level trof and surface cold front will bring
in a more widespread cloud deck at 6-8 kft overnight tonight.
Scattered showers overnight have too low a probability of
directly impacting a particular site to include restrictions
which, if occurred, would be brief. Actual front will lag,
taking until late Tuesday morning to clear the area. As such
clouds will linger during the morning before mixing into a
scattered cu field.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None except MVFR fog possible KEKN
overnight tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms in the middle Ohio
Valley Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/MC
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...30



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