Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 222313
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
713 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in tonight and Thursday. Warm front Friday
morning. Unsettled with waves of low pressure over the weekend
and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 710 PM Wednesday...

Only a few small temperature changes made tonight. Clear and
cold.

As of 205 PM Wednesday...

High pressure sails through PA tonight providing for a clear and
cold night. There may be enough gradient wind across southern
areas to keep at least the hills from tanking too much.
Otherwise...rolled with the coldest guidance which resulted in
little difference from previous grid. Freeze warnings have
already been posted for the KY counties.

Thursday will feature return flow setting up, allowing for a
quick moderation in temps. It will be another low RH day and
with another day of 10 hour fuels drying, an increasing fire
danger threat will exist...though winds will not be a strong as
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 PM Wednesday...

A sfc low pressure system approaches from the west to increase
clouds, winds and chances for PCPN Saturday. Models indicate that an
associated warm front will oscillate back and forth across the
northern sections through Sunday. Models are in agreement that the
low pressure center weakens as it moves across the Appalachians
Monday.

A cold front moves across the area from west to east to enhance
winds and probability of PCPN. Coded likely to categorical PoPs with
this feature per model consensus.

South to southwest flow brings warm and moist advection to create
warm temperatures Friday through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 PM Wednesday...

The low pressure system opens up while over extreme southwest VA
Sunday, dragging a weakening Pacific cold front across, with
the likelihood for showers and the chance for mainly afternoon
thunderstorms. Very weak Pacific high pressure follows for
Sunday night and Monday, leaving a lot of residual moisture
resulting in plenty of clouds, and even spotty light
precipitation.

Another upper level trough approaches Monday night, pushing a
warm front, perhaps along with a warm wave, across the area
Monday night. A cold front may approach on Tuesday, depending
upon the influence of the northern stream.

Temperatures closer to the blend of models through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 710 PM Wednesday...

Ceilings and visibilities unlimited through the period. Winds
overall veer from east to southeast at less than 10kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in rain Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Thursday
     for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26


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