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000
FXUS61 KRLX 230615
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY.
UPPER LOW CROSSES EARLY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR...FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

930 PM DISCUSSION...HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
TIME FOR EVENING NEWS...WHICH EXPIRES AT 10 PM ANYWAY. WHILE LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. SPC DOES NOT
ANTICIPATE NEW WATCH. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE HIGH POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH THIS LINE...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER SLOWLY DIMINISHES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS UPPER
TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS THERE WILL STILL BE MODERATE WINDS ALOFT. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

A DRIER...AND COOLER AIR UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL TAKE HOLD
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST. COLDER
NIGHT SEEMS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE MID 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...ENHANCED BY RADIATIONAL COOLING PER GOOD
CLEARING...AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS


HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST.  BELIEVE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS
A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/MIST IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IMPROVING TO
VFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS THU.

ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W THU AFTERNOON WILL GIVE RISE TO
CONVECTION AGAIN THU8 AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING MVFR AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEGREE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
SHOWERS AND POST RAIN FOG COULD VARY...WITH ISOLATED DENSE FOG NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.  TIMING OF CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON AND NT
COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 05/23/13
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM