Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 062039
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
339 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND.  SYSTEMS FROM THE SOUTH THEN AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...THAT IS OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP SATURDAY AFTER VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING THRU THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A CURIOUS
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SNOW
FIELDS OF MAINLY CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HRRR MODEL HAS SUDDENLY CAUGHT ON TO THIS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
NO ACCUMULATION AND OCCASIONAL SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THESE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING.

WHILE THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER IS TRAVERSING THE AREA TONIGHT...A VERY
LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST. IN ADDITION...SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN
EFFECT OF ALL THIS HAPPENING TONIGHT IS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...NO NEW RECORD
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...CLOUDS REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES COMPLIMENTS OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT MOISTURE IS
QUITE LIMITED AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. EVEN WITH
CLOUDS...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S MANY LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW
PACK WILL FIGHT A LOSING BATTLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CROSS SAT NT...INTRODUCING
SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.  SREF IS AS HIGH AS
CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING.  DID NOT BUY THIS BUT
LEFT THE LOW CHANCE IN PER DEFERENCE TO IT...THOUGH NOT CERTAIN WE
CAN QUITE STAND SOMETHING UP.

LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS SHOWN TO BE SATURATED BELOW INVERSION IN A
THICK ENOUGH LAYER FOR CLOUD THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT BELIEVE THE LOW
QPF OUTPUT IS SUSPECT.  DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS
INTO SUNDAY NT.

CONFLUENCE ZONE BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAMS SHIFTS N OF THE AREA ON
MON.  HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FAR S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SRN STREAM WAVE PASSES TO THE S.  LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND SRN STREAM WAVE MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING ALONG THE TUG FORK...MON AFTERNOON...WHILE WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SPELLS A DRY START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK ELSEWHERE.

HIGHS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT LOWS RAISED A BIT...TO JUST ABOVE
FREEZING ROUGHLY SRN HALF OF THE AREA SAT AND SUN NTS...AND THE SNOW
MELT RATE MAY SLOWLY INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY CONTROLLED BY SEVERAL
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH ON THE
FIRST ONE...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ECMWF IS FASTER THAN GFS BY
AROUND 12 HOURS. WITH THIS NORTHWARD TREND...HAVE BROUGHT SOME
LIKELY POPS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE RAIN. COULD GET SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY HAVE
20-30 POPS DURING THE TIME THAT SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING SO WILL NOT PUT IT INTO HWO JUST YET. JUST GET BRUSHED BY
ANOTHER WAVE ON WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THINK
THIS WILL PROBABLY STAY SOUTH WITH ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH IN THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM LOW HEADS OUR WAY. WARMER WEATHER THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...BLENDED NEW WPC GUIDANCE INTO PREVIOUS HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE SNOW
PACK TO LIFT INTO MAINLY A SCT-BKN 2000-3000 FT AGL LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW FLURRIES...DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE BRIEF LOWERING INTO MVFR ESPECIALLY UNDER THE FLURRIES.

AFTER 21Z...AS THESE LOWER CLOUDS DISSIPATE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT THAT IS VERY
MOISTURE STARVED FOR PRECIP. THUS...VFR MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS THRU
THE PERIOD...MOST CLOUDS IN THE NORTH. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV





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