Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 211431
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1031 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues through the weekend with mostly clear
skies. A strong cold front and low pressure system crosses
early next week, with much cooler weather midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1020 AM Saturday...

Updated wx grids to insert a sliver of smoke northeast of
Parkersburg and into east central Washington County, Ohio for
the next 3 hours. The source is from a large industrial fire in
Parkersburg that occurred last night. Based on GOES 16 imagery
including fire channels along with local reports, this fire is
still active. SW low level flow will continue to send this NE
across the Ohio River and into east central Washington County,
generally east of Marietta.

As of 255 AM Saturday...

Temperatures will be a bit warmer today than what we saw the
last few days. High pressure slowly drifts eastward today and
low level flow switches around to the SW...hence the warmer
temps, but we will continue to see mostly clear skies, other
than some cirrus passing through from the west. Also, looking at
some warmer temps overnight with dew points coming up a bit with
the warm moist SW flow. Tonight we will see the possibility for
valley fog once again, but otherwise a nice night overall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

High pressure departing to the NE to start the period as a
strong cold front approaches from the west. Slowed down POPs a
bit on the front side...keeping the Sunday night period dry.
Then have POPs rapidly increasing Monday afternoon with 80-90
POPs late Monday evening and Monday night. Models still
struggling a bit with the location of the surface low and cold
front, but both GFS and ECMWF pointing to a rainy night. The
ECMWF has the front through the forecast area by 12Z Tuesday,
while the GFS is a bit slower with the front still crossing the
mountains around that time. This appears to be due to the GFS
closing off a southern stream upper low over the lower
Mississippi River Valley, while the ECMWF keeps it open and more
progressive. No strong feeling either way at this point, so
stayed close to the consensus blend.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

With the cold front to the east to start the period, attention
turns to the trailing upper level trough. The trough axis should
be crossing the forecast area early Wednesday, so have lingered
chance POPs through most of the day -- envisioning scattered
showers as the cold air filters in. GFS continues to be colder
than the ECMWF at 850mb -- and have included some snow flakes
across the northern mountains both Tuesday night and Wednesday
night. Surface temperatures much colder by mid week as well,
with highs on Wednesday generally in the 40s and low-mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 645 AM Saturday...

Start the morning with IFR Valley fog in some areas, but that
will burn off by about 13Z and then VFR conditions will persists
through the day. High pressure remains in control of our weather
again tonight and that will bring the possibility of valley fog
once again for Sunday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium this morning then high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may dissipate at different times than
currently forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
Dense valley fog possible Sunday morning. Heavy rain at times
early next week could also bring IFR conditions.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK



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