Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 291347
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
947 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...FOR BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...ALREADY SOME RADAR RETURNS IN SOUTHERN OHIO. NOT
LIKELY ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND YET WITH THESE DUE TO DRY LOW
LEVELS...BUT DID INSERT SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS WESTERN CWA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD SHOULD BURN OFF AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE MAKING FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY.

MORE MOISTURE WILL MAKES ITS WAY NORTH TODAY GIVING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
MAYBE BACK INTO KY IF THE CU GETS SPUNKY ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE AT H5 EMERGING FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AND
JUICIER AIRMASS TO THE AREA...TO INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS SHOW
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ABOUT 40 KFT. SO EXPECT TALL THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHWEST SPREADING CONVECTION INTO
SOUTHEAST OH INTO MONDAY. THE WAVE WEAKENS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWER POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND NUMBERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES SEEMS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY VALLEY FOG INHIBITED BY A STRATOCU LAYER SHOULD DISSIPATE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 13Z. EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG
IS GONE. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY...BECAUSE OF STRATOCU DECK.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW



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