Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 290228
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
928 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP FADED FAST AS IT APPROACHED EASTERN OK MUCH
AS SHORT RANGE HI RES MODELS SUGGESTED...AND SECOND SURGE IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.
MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE NOW OVER WESTERN
KS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. OVERALL TREND OF GOING FORECAST
COVERS THIS FAIRLY WELL. UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED MAINLY TO REFLECT
TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
OKLAHOMA SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...
AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE MAY
TEMPORARILY FALL TO MVFR NEAR ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTH END OF THIS
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 - 1.8 LIKELY TO
MAKE  UPWARDS OF  ONE HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION
ALL AREAS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
WAVE WILL NEVER QUITE MAKE INTO EASTERN OK...BUT
RATHER  STRETCH OUT  SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS  TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NOT A WASH OUT FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND
BUT NONETHELESS CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

WESTERLY FLOW ON LABOR DAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS KANSAS PUTS NORTHERN BORDER
AREAS AT RISK FOR CHANCE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  90  73  90 /  70  70  40  20
FSM   74  90  73  90 /  30  60  50  60
MLC   74  89  73  90 /  50  60  40  50
BVO   69  87  68  91 /  70  70  40  10
FYV   67  86  70  86 /  30  60  60  40
BYV   68  86  70  86 /  20  60  60  40
MKO   72  87  72  89 /  50  70  40  40
MIO   72  86  70  88 /  40  70  50  30
F10   72  89  72  89 /  70  70  40  40
HHW   72  90  73  90 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99







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