Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 220542
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1142 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Precip will continue to exit Northwest Arkansas as a cold
front/dryline pushes through the CWA. Ahead of the
boundary...scattered/broken low/mid clouds and breezy southerly
winds are expected...with few mid clouds and breezy southwest to
westerly winds behind the boundary. Early Monday
morning...scattered/broken MVFR to low end VFR ceilings look to
spread back into Northeast Oklahoma and into Northwest Arkansas
around mid morning. Also during the day Monday...westerly winds
gusting 20 to 35KT are forecast across the CWA. By Monday
evening...cloud cover looks to begin clearing out with gusty
westerly winds continuing.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 852 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to lift northeast across far
Eastern and Southeast Oklahoma as well as over Northwest Arkansas
ahead of a cold front/dryline that is just starting to enter into
Eastern Oklahoma. Instability out ahead of the boundary has been
mainly over far Southeast Oklahoma into Western Arkansas with
multiple severe and tornado warnings having been issued this
evening. A tornado watch remains in effect until 11 PM for much of
these locations.

Through tonight...showers and thunderstorms will continue to push
across far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas over the next
few hours as the cold front/dryline makes its way eastward through
the CWA. The instability axis should also continue to shift
eastward with time...though a window of severe potential will
remain over the next couple hours over mainly far Southeast
Oklahoma into Western Arkansas with locally damaging winds and
also a tornado threat possible.

The cold front/dryline looks to be exiting Northwest Arkansas
during the midnight-2am time frame with precip exiting ahead of
the boundary. Behind the boundary...gusty southwest to westerly
winds 15 to 30+mph...much drier air and falling temperatures will
spread over the CWA overnight. Also behind the
boundary...scattering mid/high clouds are forecast with the
potential for increasing low clouds over Northeast Oklahoma as the
upper level low moves east northeast into/through Kansas late
tonight and Monday. These conditions will allow for low
temperatures to get down into upper 30s and 40s for the CWA.

For the evening update...have tweaked hourly
pop/wx/temp/dewpoint grids based on current trends and
observations. Also added a few adjustments to sky and wind grids
to account for the mentioned above. The rest of the forecast seems
to be in good shape at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  49  29  54 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   42  53  32  54 /  90   0   0   0
MLC   42  52  30  55 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   39  47  28  52 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   41  46  29  49 /  90  10   0   0
BYV   41  47  29  48 / 100  10  10   0
MKO   39  49  28  52 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   40  45  28  50 /  40  10  10   0
F10   40  50  29  54 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   42  56  32  57 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....20



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