Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 140532
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1132 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Low clouds spreading across much of ern OK and nwrn AR at this time
expected to lower into MVFR category by 12z most places and then into
IFR category 12z-18z with areas light rain or drizzle. Best chances
for freezing rain/drizzle across nwrn AR sites. Some improvement in
flight conditions expected at BVO/TUL/RVS by 15/00z but other sites
likely to remain MVFR through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Low cloudiness is beginning to increase across the forecast area
and this trend will continue overnight with all areas becoming
overcast by around 09Z or so. Have made a few changes to first
period and early second period elements to incorporate current and
expected trends. Initially low dewpoints will take some time to
saturate, and thus drizzle appears unlikely before sunrise. Some
light rain may develop prior to this time as per the latest runs
of the HRRR, but this should not occur until after 09Z. Overnight
low temperatures should occur by around 08-09Z, with slowly rising
temperatures thereafter. The main threat for light freezing rain,
and maybe eventually light freezing drizzle, will be in the
deepest valleys of far northwest Arkansas, especially in parts of
Carroll, Madison, and Franklin Counties. The population centers
around Fort Smith and Fayetteville will likely remain warm enough
for all liquid precipitation.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for ARZ001-002-
     010-011-019-020.

&&

$$

AVIATION...69


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