Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 281231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 May 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 28-May 30 2016 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 28-May 30 2016

            May 28     May 29     May 30
00-03UT        3          2          4
03-06UT        2          2          3
06-09UT        4          2          3
09-12UT        2          2          3
12-15UT        5 (G1)     3          3
15-18UT        2          3          3
18-21UT        2          3          4
21-00UT        2          4          5 (G1)

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on day one (28
May) and likely on day three (30 May) due to CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 28-May 30 2016

              May 28  May 29  May 30
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 28-May 30 2016

              May 28        May 29        May 30
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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