Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 261232
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Sep 26 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 26-Sep 28 2017 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 26-Sep 28 2017

            Sep 26     Sep 27     Sep 28
00-03UT        1          2          6 (G2)
03-06UT        1          2          5 (G1)
06-09UT        2          1          4
09-12UT        1          2          4
12-15UT        1          4          4
15-18UT        1          5 (G1)     4
18-21UT        2          5 (G1)     4
21-00UT        2          5 (G1)     4

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet
levels on day one (26 Sep). G1 (Minor) storm levels, with a chance for
G2 (Moderate) storm levels, become likely by day two (27 Sep) with the
passage of a CIR, and the onset of a recurrent, polar-connected,
positive polarity CH HSS. G2 (Moderate) levels are likely on day three
(28 Sep) as a result of ongoing CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 26-Sep 28 2017

              Sep 26  Sep 27  Sep 28
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 26-Sep 28 2017

              Sep 26        Sep 27        Sep 28
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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