Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 270031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Feb 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 27-Mar 01 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 27-Mar 01 2015

            Feb 27     Feb 28     Mar 01
00-03UT        3          3          5 (G1)
03-06UT        2          3          4
06-09UT        2          2          3
09-12UT        2          2          3
12-15UT        2          3          3
15-18UT        2          4          4
18-21UT        2          5 (G1)     4
21-00UT        3          5 (G1)     4

Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are likely on 28 Feb
and 01 Mar in response to a high speed solar wind stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 27-Mar 01 2015

              Feb 27  Feb 28  Mar 01
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 27-Mar 01 2015

              Feb 27        Feb 28        Mar 01
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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