Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 020031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Oct 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 02-Oct 04 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 02-Oct 04 2014

            Oct 02     Oct 03     Oct 04
00-03UT        3          3          2
03-06UT        2          2          2
06-09UT        2          2          2
09-12UT        1          1          1
12-15UT        2          1          1
15-18UT        2          2          1
18-21UT        2          2          1
21-00UT        2          2          1

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 02-Oct 04 2014

              Oct 02  Oct 03  Oct 04
S1 or greater    5%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 02-Oct 04 2014

              Oct 02        Oct 03        Oct 04
R1-R2           45%           35%           20%
R3 or greater    5%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a decreasing chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio
blackouts during the forecast period, as large regions decay and rotate
off the west limb.  By 04 October, only a slight chance remains.



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