Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 271230
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Dec 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 27-Dec 29 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 27-Dec 29 2014

            Dec 27     Dec 28     Dec 29
00-03UT        3          3          3
03-06UT        2          2          2
06-09UT        2          2          2
09-12UT        2          2          2
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        3          2          2
21-00UT        3          3          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 27-Dec 29 2014

              Dec 27  Dec 28  Dec 29
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 27 2014 0216 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 27-Dec 29 2014

              Dec 27        Dec 28        Dec 29
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts,
particularly from Regions 2248 and 2249.


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