Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 271230
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Sep 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 27-Sep 29 2016 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 27-Sep 29 2016

            Sep 27     Sep 28     Sep 29
00-03UT        5 (G1)     4          6 (G2)
03-06UT        4          4          5 (G1)
06-09UT        5 (G1)     4          4
09-12UT        5 (G1)     4          4
12-15UT        5 (G1)     5 (G1)     4
15-18UT        4          5 (G1)     5 (G1)
18-21UT        4          5 (G1)     4
21-00UT        5 (G1)     6 (G2)     5 (G1)

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at (G1-Minor) storm
levels until near the end of day one (27 Sep) as CH HSS effects persist.
Isolated periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels, with a slight
chance for G3 (Strong) conditions, are possible late in the day on day
two, as well as day three (29 Sep), with the continued effects from the
CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 27-Sep 29 2016

              Sep 27  Sep 28  Sep 29
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 27-Sep 29 2016

              Sep 27        Sep 28        Sep 29
R1-R2            5%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


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