Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 100035
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Dec 10 0032 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 10-Dec 12 2016 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 10-Dec 12 2016

            Dec 10     Dec 11     Dec 12
00-03UT        5 (G1)     4          3
03-06UT        5 (G1)     3          2
06-09UT        5 (G1)     3          2
09-12UT        4          3          2
12-15UT        3          2          2
15-18UT        3          2          2
18-21UT        4          3          3
21-00UT        4          3          2

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected early on day one
(10 Dec) due to CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 10-Dec 12 2016

              Dec 10  Dec 11  Dec 12
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 10-Dec 12 2016

              Dec 10        Dec 11        Dec 12
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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