National Weather Service Text Product Display

Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Versions: 1 2
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AXUS75 KFGZ 162034
DGTFGZ
AZZ007-008-010-011-013-014-037-039-040-312300-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
130 PM MST THU MAY 16 2013

...EXTREME DROUGHT DEVELOPS IN FAR WESTERN COCONINO AND NORTHWEST
YAVAPAI COUNTIES...

...EXTREME DROUGHT PERSISTS IN PORTIONS OF APACHE...NAVAJO...AND
SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTIES...

SYNOPSIS...

THREE AREAS OF EXTREME DROUGHT (D3 IN THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR) NOW
EXIST IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. TWO OF THESE AREAS...INCLUDING SOUTHERN
YAVAPAI COUNTY...AND APACHE AND CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY...ARE DUE TO
LONG-TERM (2+ YEAR) PRECIPITATION DEFICITS THAT HAVE BEEN EXACERBATED
BY THE CURRENT WATER YEAR DEFICITS. THE THIRD AREA OF EXTREME DROUGHT
OVER A SMALL AREA OF WESTERN COCONINO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST YAVAPAI
COUNTIES HAS EMERGED DUE TO THE CURRENT WATER YEAR DEFICITS. SOME
COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY EXTREME DROUGHT INCLUDE CHINLE...GANADO...
WINDOW ROCK...SAINT JOHNS...HOLBROOK...SANDERS....KIRKLAND...
CONGRESS...SELIGMAN.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

REPORTS FROM NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
RESERVOIR AND STOCK TANK LEVELS...AND DISTRESSED VEGETATION.
ALSO...ALL OF THE EXTREME DROUGHT AREAS ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER DUE TO THE DRY VEGETATION.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

SIGNIFICANT LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICITS CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN YAVAPAI...APACHE AND CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTIES. EXTREME
DROUGHT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER EXTREME WESTERN COCONINO AND
NORTHWEST YAVAPAI COUNTIES DUE TO DRYNESS DURING THE CURRENT
WATER YEAR (OCT 2012 - PRESENT).

UPDATED PRECIPITATION VALUES FOR THE CURRENT WATER YEAR...

                OCT 1 2012 - MAY 15 2013   DEPARTURE FROM   PERCENT
                 OBSERVED PRECIPITATION      NORMAL         NORMAL
CANYON DE CHELLY AZ       2.51"              -3.07"           45%
WINDOW ROCK AZ            3.44"              -2.78"           55%
SAINT JOHNS AZ            2.27"              -3.44"           40%
CASTLE HOT SPRINGS AZ     4.95"              -4.98"           49%
SELIGMAN AZ               2.95"              -4.06"           42%


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SEASONAL OUTLOOK /THROUGH AUGUST/
CALLS FOR INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE LATEST PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS SHOW NO CLEAR PREFERENCE TOWARD
DRIER OR WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...WITH EQUAL CHANCES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL...BELOW NORMAL...AND NORMAL PRECIPITATION. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE PERIOD FROM NOW THROUGH JULY 1 IS USUALLY VERY DRY
IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. NORMAL PRECIPITATION AT NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS IS
LESS THAN ONE INCH.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

WHILE SOME IMPROVEMENTS WERE OBSERVED FROM HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
EXTREME DROUGHT AREAS IN LATE JANUARY 2013...BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION RESUMED FROM LATE WINTER INTO LATE SPRING.
SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE REQUIRED TO REPLENISH
LOCAL WATER RESOURCES THAT RESPOND ON LONGER TIME SCALES
/RESERVOIRS, AQUIFERS, ETC./.  ALTHOUGH THE LATEST SEASONAL
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR
NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION...THE REST OF THE SPRING THROUGH THE
FIRST OF JULY IS USUALLY VERY DRY IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. THEREFORE...
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IS UNLIKELY UNTIL THE SUMMER MONSOON SEASON
AT THE EARLIEST.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENTS FROM THIS OFFICE ARE NORMALLY ISSUED
ON THE THIRD THURSDAY OF EACH MONTH IN WHICH EXTREME OR EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN A PORTION OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ISSUANCE IS ON JUNE 20.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES:

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM...DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
NWS FORECAST OFFICE FLAGSTAFF...WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV /REQUIRES WWW./
ARIZONA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...AZCLIMATE.ASU.EDU
ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES DROUGHT PROGRAM...
AZWATER.GOV/AZDWR/STATEWIDEPLANNING/DROUGHT
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...WRCC.DRI.EDU
USGS WATER RESOURCES OF THE UNITED STATES...WATER.USGS.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

INFORMATION INCLUDED IN THIS STATEMENT WAS COMPILED FROM A MULTITUDE
OF FEDERAL...STATE...AND LOCAL AGENCIES.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - FLAGSTAFF
POB 16057
BELLEMONT, AZ 86015
928-556-9161
W-FGZ.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

WFO FLAGSTAFF - JJ
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
