Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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AXGM70 PGUM 010138
DGTGUM

PMZ173-PMZ174-150200
POHNPEI-KOSRAE-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1130 AM CHST THU DEC 1 2016

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR KAPINGAMARANGI OF POHNPEI STATE...

SYNOPSIS...
THE LA NINA ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER REMAINS
IN EFFECT. LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC
OCEAN AND LA NINA IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FEBRUARY 2017. THIS
MEANS THAT TRADE WINDS WILL BE MORE DOMINANT OVER MICRONESIA AND DRY
WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM NEAR KAPINGAMARANGI
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DATE LINE DURING THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THE FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA WILL ALSO BE AT RISK FOR DRY WEATHER.

THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
INDICATES KAPINGAMARANGI REMAINS IN SEVERE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 2
OF 4) AND NUKUORO IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4).
THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND
KOSRAE WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER IN THE COMING
MONTHS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS....

POHNPEI STATE...

KAPINGAMARANGI...
LOCAL AUTHORITIES HAVE REQUESTED ASSISTANCE AND POHNPEI STATE
GOVERNMENT HAS PROVIDED DESALINATORS AND BOTTLED WATER AND IS
CONDUCTING FURTHER ASSESSMENTS.

SHOWERS OCCURRED AT KAPINGAMARANGI THIS PAST WEEK AND A FEW MORE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS...BUT MUCH DRIER
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AND DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. WATER SUPPLIES
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND WATER CONSERVATION IS NEEDED. WELLS
SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY. DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS AND THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD
BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

NUKUORO...
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED RECENTLY BUT RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL AT
NUKUORO THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. HELPFUL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE NEAR TERM...BUT DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE COMING MONTHS.
WATER SUPPLIES SHOULD STILL BE MONITORED AND WATER CONSERVATION IS
ENCOURAGED. WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY. SOME
DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS AND THE
HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

FOR KOSRAE STATE....

KOSRAE...
RAINFALL DURING THIS PAST MONTH WAS JUST ADEQUATE BUT WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR KOSRAE. THIS BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. WATER SUPPLIES SHOULD BE
MONITORED AND WATER CONSERVATION IS ENCOURAGED. SOME DAMAGE TO FOOD
CROPS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COMING MONTHS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK LA NINA PATTERN CURRENTLY
AFFECTING MICRONESIA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FEBRUARY 2017...THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS BY NEXT SUMMER. TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE AND HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED WELL NORTH OF THE
EQUATOR AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT LOCATIONS
WITHIN ABOUT 4 DEGREES OF THE EQUATOR. ALSO...OTHER ISLANDS OF
MICRONESIA NORTH OF 10N MAY BECOME VERY DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL DURING THIS DRY SEASON.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                  SEP    OCT    NOV     NOV      NOV
                                TOTAL   NORMAL   % NORMAL

KAPINGAMARANGI    7.61   2.14   6.58    8.19     80
NUKUORO           8.02   7.61   5.80   10.50     55
KOSRAE           12.71   9.87   7.76   13.31     58

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF 160E. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL
FOR KAPINGAMARANGI AND NUKUORO IN SOUTHWEST POHNPEI STATE THROUGH
FEBRUARY 2017. VERY DRY WEATHER IS ALSO LIKELY FOR KOSRAE AND FOR
NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA IN THE COMING MONTHS.

POHNPEI STATE...

KAPINGAMARANGI...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR
KAPINGAMARANGI WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS...THEN DRY WEATHER FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. ONLY AROUND ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE PREPARED AND MAINTAINED BECAUSE SPOTTY
SHOWERS AT TIMES WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

NUKUORO...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES WILL ALSO PRODUCE
VARIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR NUKUORO DURING THE
NEXT 10 DAYS.

CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE PREPARED AND MAINTAINED SINCE SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES AND AFFORD AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

KOSRAE STATE...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE DRY WEATHER DURING THE COMING DAYS FOR
KOSRAE WITH ONLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE PREPARED AND MAINTAINED BECAUSE SPOTTY
SHOWERS AT TIMES IN THE COMING WEEKS WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH
RAIN WATER.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
THURSDAY DECEMBER 15 2016 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY
TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM
CURRENT CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT.

THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AND ALERT AREAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
MICRONESIA...ESPECIALLY POHNPEI STATE. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE
NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY
OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT
POHNPEI...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES...AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE
NATIONAL CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...

WFO TIYAN GUAM
3232 HUENEME RD
BARRIGADA GU 96913
PHONE: 671-472-0946
W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

SIMPSON

$$



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