Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
AXUS74 KJAN 172217
DGTJAN
MSC001-007-011-015-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-049-051-053-055-063-
067-075-077-079-083-087-089-091-099-101-103-121-125-127-133-149-151-
157-163-LAC025-029-035-041-065-083-107-ARC017-041-2600000-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
416 PM CST THU NOV 17 2016

...EXTREME DROUGHT EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION AS EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE...

SYNOPSIS...
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM), VALID TUESDAY
NOVEMBER 15 2016, EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS NOW EXIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CLAY AND EXTREME NORTHERN LOWNDES
COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI. EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS HAVE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO CARROLLTON
TO INVERNESS TO VALLEY PARK TO RAYVILLE TO SICILY ISLAND TO PORT
GIBSON TO POLKSVILLE TO WAYNESBORO. SURROUNDING THE EXTREME AREA,
SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) CONDITIONS EXIST NORTH OF A LINE FROM JONESVILLE
LA TO MOUNT OLIVE TO LUMBERTON, EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF
WESTERN ASHLEY COUNTY ARKANSAS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE DROUGHT (D1)
CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE. FOR MORE DETAILS, REFER TO THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR WEBPAGE LINKED AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PRODUCT.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
WARM SEASON HARVEST HAS MOSTLY WRAPPED UP ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
AGRICULTURAL FOCUS NOW SHIFTING TO PLANTING AND MAINTENANCE OF COLD
SEASON GRASSES. PLANTING OPERATIONS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING IN MANY
AREAS DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER, BUT LOCAL USDA AGENTS REPORT THAT
SOME FARMERS TOOK ADVANTAGE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AS AN
OPPORTUNITY TO PLANT WINTER GRASSES. GRAZING LAND CONTINUES TO
SUFFER, ESPECIALLY IN THE EXTREME AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT AREAS.
MANY CATTLE FARMERS CONTINUE TO FEED HAY AS PASTURE CONDITIONS
WORSEN ACROSS THE AREA.

SOIL MOISTURE IS NOW WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH
THE WORST CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.
LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL ON AREA PONDS, WITH SOME SMALLER PONDS
DRYING UP COMPLETELY.

A BURN BAN IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NWS JACKSON FORECAST
AREA. KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) VALUES ARE ABOVE 600 ACROSS
ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE AREA AND ABOVE 700 OVER ALL OF EAST
MISSISSIPPI. THESE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF PERSISTING AND
INCREASING DROUGHT WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR WILDFIRE
OCCURRENCE.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...
A WEAK SYSTEM BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WHERE IT DID RAIN,
AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH, WITH A FEW SPOTS
RECEIVING CLOSER TO AN INCH. STILL, NO RAIN FELL OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE PAST WEEK. ANY RAIN THAT DID OCCUR HAD
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE CURRENT DROUGHT SITUATION. 60 DAY RAINFALL
DEPARTURES ARE NOW AROUND 6 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
WITH 90 DAY DEPARTURES BETWEEN 8 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.


                 RAINFALL     DEPARTURE    RAINFALL     DEPARTURE
LOCATION       YEAR TO DATE  FROM NORMAL  9/1 TO DATE  FROM NORMAL

JACKSON JAN       54.66         +8.11        1.46        -7.81

MERIDIAN MEI      38.11        -10.49        0.78        -8.86

TALLULAH/         52.24         +5.77        0.69        -9.21
VICKSBURG TVR

HATTIESBURG HBG   55.30         +3.22        4.29        -5.63

GREENWOOD GWO     39.57         -4.15        3.07        -6.58

GREENVILLE GLH    42.77         -1.52        0.88        -8.85


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND ANOTHER FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE AREA. THE LATEST
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER 7 DAY RAINFALL FORECAST INDICATES LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH OVER MOST OF THE NWS JACKSON FORECAST AREA, WITH
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST IN THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, RECOVERING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND THE UPCOMING WEEK, THERE ARE GREATER CHANCES FOR...

                                TEMPERATURES     PRECIPITATION

8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK             ABOVE NORMAL      BELOW NORMAL
EXPERIMENTAL 3-4 WEEK OUTLOOK   ABOVE NORMAL     (EQUAL CHANCES)
ONE MONTH OUTLOOK (DECEMBER)    ABOVE NORMAL      BELOW NORMAL
THREE MONTH OUTLOOK (NOV-JAN)   ABOVE NORMAL      BELOW NORMAL


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS MOST OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. LOOKING AHEAD TO
THE UPCOMING WEEK, STREAMFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL.

AT ROSS BARNETT RESERVOIR NEAR JACKSON, THE POOL ON NOVEMBER 17TH
WAS DOWN TO 295.26 FEET. THE NORMAL POOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
297.5 FEET. THE POOL WILL CONTINUE TO FALL, LIKELY AFFECTING BOATING
AND DOCKS ALONG THE LAKE. SOME DOCKS AROUND THE RESERVOIR ARE
ALREADY BEING CLOSED.

AT GRENADA LAKE NEAR GRENADA, THE POOL ON NOVEMBER 17TH WAS 197.97
FEET AND FALLING. LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL FOR THE SEASONAL LOWERING
OF THE POOL TO 193 FEET BY DECEMBER 1ST.

AT OKATIBBEE LAKE NEAR MERIDIAN, THE POOL ON NOVEMBER 17TH WAS
339.08 FEET. THE CURRENT POOL READING IS VERY CLOSE TO THE WINTER
OPERATING POOL OF 339 FEET.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS:  WEATHER.GOV/JAN
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM:  WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR: DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER: WWW.DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
LA OFFICE OF STATE CLIMATOLOGY: WWW.LOSC.LSU.EDU
LSU AG CENTER: WWW.LSUAGCENTER.COM
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY: HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
LA DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY BURN BANS:
  WWW.LDAF.STATE.LA.US/PROGRAMS/PARISH-BURN-BANS/
ARKANSAS BURN BANS: WWW.ARKFIREINFO.ORG
MISSISSIPPI BURN BANS: WWW.MFC.MS.GOV/BURN-BANS
MISSISSIPPI STATE CLIMATOLOGIST: GEOSCIENCES.MSSTATE.EDU/STATE-CLIMATOLOGIST/

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A FACILITATED COLLABORATION AMONG
VARIOUS AGENCIES WHICH INCLUDES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, STATE
CLIMATOLOGISTS, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, AND THE U.S.
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS/FAA OBSERVATION SITES, THE USDA, THE U.S.
ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS, USGS, FORESTRY INTERESTS IN MISSISSIPPI,
ARKANSAS, AND LOUISIANA.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT INFORMATION ON THIS STATEMENT,
PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE 234 WEATHER SERVICE DRIVE
JACKSON, MS 39232

PHONE: (601)936-2189
EMAIL: MARTY.POPE@NOAA.GOV OR DANIEL.LAMB@NOAA.GOV

$$

DL


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