Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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AXUS74 KJAN 301628
DGTJAN
MSC001-007-011-015-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-049-051-053-055-063-
067-075-077-079-083-087-089-091-099-101-103-121-125-127-133-149-151-
157-163-LAC025-029-035-041-065-083-107-ARC017-041-070000-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1128 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...RECENT DRY CONDITIONS LEADING TO REDEVELOPMENT OF DROUGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...

SYNOPSIS...
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, VALID TUESDAYSEPTEMBER
27TH, DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THEREGION.
SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) NOW EXISTS OVER PORTIONS OF LOWNDES,CLAY,
OKTIBBEHA, MONTGOMERY, GRENADA, AND CARROLL COUNTIES.
SURROUNDING THIS, MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) EXISTS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MINTER CITY TO GREENWOOD TO WEST TO ACKERMAN TO LOUISVILLE TO
SCOOBA. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) CONDITIONS NOW SURROUND THESE AREAS AND
EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO A LINE FROM SICILY ISLAND LA TO WATERPROOF TO
WESSON MS TO TAYLORSVILLE TO SHUBUTA. FOR MORE DETAILS, REFER TO THE
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR WEBPAGE LINKED AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PRODUCT.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST MONTH HAVE LED TO ISSUES WITH
AVAILABLEGRASSES FOR GRAZING, LEADING MANY CATTLE FARMERS TO UTILIZE
HAY. THELOCAL USDA INDICATES RECENT REPORTS OF THIS ISSUE IN
GRENADA,CARROLL, MONTGOMERY, WEBSTER, HOLMES, RANKIN, SCOTT, AND
LEAKECOUNTIES. A FARMER IN LEAKE COUNTY REPORTED BROWNING GRASSES
ANDPARCHED SOIL. MANY CROPS, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAVE REACHED
HARVESTSTAGE, AND RECENT DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN HELPFUL DURING
THISPROCESS.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NOW BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OFTHE AREA, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHEASTERNPORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. ABOVE NORMAL SOIL
MOISTURE REMAINSACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. LEVELS ONMANY AREA AGRICULTURAL PONDS ARE AGAIN FALLING
DUE TO RECENT DRYCONDITIONS.

THE MISSISSIPPI FORESTRY COMMISSION REPORTS AROUND 30
WILDFIRESOCCURRED OVER THE PAST WEEK, MOST OF WHICH OCCURRED EAST OF
I-55 ANDNORTH OF I-20. ADDITIONAL WILDFIRES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN
ARKANSASIN RECENT DAYS. KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KDBI) VALUES
HAVE RISENTO ABOVE 600 OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF
CENTRALMISSISSIPPI, SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS, AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA,
WITH A FEWAREAS NOW ABOVE 700. THESE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF
INCREASINGDROUGHT WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR WILDFIRE OCCURRENCE.
ACROSSTHE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA,VALUES ARE BETWEEN 400 AND 600. THESE VALUES ARE MORE
TYPICAL FORTHIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT WILDFIRES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. ABURN BAN HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR LOWNDES COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL BURN BANSMAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER THE COMING WEEKS.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...
RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPOTTY OVER THE PAST WEEK, WITH A
SIGNIFICANTPORTION OF THE AREA RECEIVING NO RAIN. THIS CONTINUED A
TREND OFBELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE PAST MONTH. 30 DAY
RAINFALLDEPARTURES OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE COMMON ACROSS NORTHERN
ANDCENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, NORTHEAST LOUISIANA, AND SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS.ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI, RAINFALL HAS BEEN CLOSER TO
NORMAL, WITH AFEW AREAS AROUND THE PINE BELT WELL ABOVE NORMAL. OVER
A 90 DAYPERIOD, RAINFALL DEFICITS EXIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OFTHE AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY AROUND THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE ARE NOWOVER SIX INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE 90 DAY PERIOD.

                 RAINFALL     DEPARTURE    RAINFALL     DEPARTURE
LOCATION       YEAR TO DATE  FROM NORMAL  9/1 TO DATE  FROM NORMAL

JACKSON JAN       53.53        +13.33        0.33        -2.59

JACKSON HKS       43.25         +3.00        0.81        -2.29

MERIDIAN MEI      37.90         -4.37        0.57        -2.74

TALLULAH/         51.67        +12.31        0.12        -2.67VICKSBURG TVR

HATTIESBURG HBG   55.10         +9.00        4.09        +0.15

GREENWOOD GWO     38.38         +0.78        1.88        -1.65

GREENVILLE GLH    42.57         +5.05        0.68        -2.28


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION
FORMUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY, LITTLE RAINFALL
ISANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE LATEST WPC 7
DAYPRECIPITATION FORECAST IS FOR LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
EXPECTEDGENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20 IN MISSISSIPPI. AS A RESULT,
ADDITIONALDETERIORATION IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY. THE
LATESTSEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
VALIDTHROUGH DECEMBER 31ST INDICATES ADDITIONAL DROUGHT
DEVELOPMENTOVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

BEYOND THE UPCOMING WEEK, THERE ARE GREATER CHANCES FOR...

                                TEMPERATURES     PRECIPITATION

8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK             ABOVE NORMAL      BELOW NORMAL
EXPERIMENTAL 3-4 WEEK OUTLOOK   EQUAL CHANCES     BELOW NORMAL
ONE MONTH OUTLOOK (OCTOBER)   ABV NORMAL/EQ CHC  BLW NORMAL/EQ CHC
THREE MONTH OUTLOOK (OCT-DEC) ABV NORMAL/EQ CHC   BELOW NORMAL


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE NOW BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW
NORMALTHROUGHOUT MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, NORTHEAST LOUISIANA,
ANDSOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INCLUDING THE YAZOO/SUNFLOWER BASIN,
THETOMBIGBEE BASIN, THE BIG BLACK BASIN, THE UPPER PEARL BASIN,
THECHICKASAWHAY BASIN, THE BOEUF BASIN, AND THE TENSAS BASIN.
ACROSSSOUTH MISSISSIPPI, STREAMFLOWS ARE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.
BASED ONONGOING CONDITIONS AND FORECAST RAINFALL OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEK,STREAMFLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE, WITH
MOREWATERWAYS FALLING BELOW NORMAL.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON OCTOBER 6TH.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS:  WEATHER.GOV/JAN
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM:  WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR: DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER: WWW.DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
LA OFFICE OF STATE CLIMATOLOGY: WWW.LOSC.LSU.EDU
LSU AG CENTER: WWW.LSUAGCENTER.COM
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY: HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
LA DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY BURN BANS:
  WWW.LDAF.STATE.LA.US/PROGRAMS/PARISH-BURN-BANS/
ARKANSAS BURN BANS: WWW.ARKFIREINFO.ORG
MISSISSIPPI BURN BANS: WWW.MFC.MS.GOV/BURN-BANS
MISSISSIPPI STATE CLIMATOLOGIST: GEOSCIENCES.MSSTATE.EDU/STATE-CLIMATOLOGIST/

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A FACILITATED COLLABORATION AMONG
VARIOUS AGENCIES WHICH INCLUDES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, STATE
CLIMATOLOGISTS, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, AND THE U.S.
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS/FAA OBSERVATION SITES, THE USDA, THE U.S.
ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS, USGS, FORESTRY INTERESTS IN MISSISSIPPI,
ARKANSAS, AND LOUISIANA.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT INFORMATION ON THIS STATEMENT,
PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
234 WEATHER SERVICE DRIVE
JACKSON, MS 39232

PHONE: (601)936-2189
EMAIL: MARTY.POPE@NOAA.GOV

$$

DL


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