Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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AXUS71 KLWX 051620
DGTLWX
DCC001-MDC003-005-013-017-021-025-027-031-033-510-VAC003-013-047-
059-061-079-113-137-153-177-179-510-540-600-610-630-683-685-
201200-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1052 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017

...RECENT RAINS KEEP DROUGHT FROM WORSENING FURTHER...

SYNOPSIS...
AS OF JANUARY 3RD 2017...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES
MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A PORTION
OF THE AREA...INCLUDING MOST OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND...THE IMMEDIATE
WASHINGTON D.C. METRO AREA...AND PARTS OF THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT
MAINLY NEAR THE RAPIDAN RIVER. THIS IS UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST
THREE WEEKS. ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS STILL EXIST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR ALL OF SAINT MARY`S COUNTY
MARYLAND...AND PORTIONS OF CHARLES...CALVERT...AND KING GEORGE
COUNTIES.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
A DROUGHT WATCH WAS DECLARED BY THE STATE OF MARYLAND FOR THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE STATE AT THE END OF NOVEMBER
AND CARRIED FORWARD INTO MID-DECEMBER. NO FURTHER ASSESSMENT HAS
OCCURRED SINCE BUT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED.

AS OF JANUARY 5TH 2017...THERE WERE NO OTHER DROUGHT DECLARATIONS
ISSUED FOR THE AREA BY LOCAL OR STATE GOVERNMENTS.

SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL MAINLY IN AN AREA CENTERED ON
WASHINGTON DC. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE PAST
MONTH OR SO...AND NOW THE WORST AREA IS ONLY AROUND THE 10TH
PERCENTILE. AREAS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ACTUALLY NOW HAVE
ABOVE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE.

GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...IMPACTS OF THE DRY WEATHER HAVE BEEN
MINIMAL.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
DECEMBER TURNED OUT TO BE A SEASONABLY WET MONTH...WITH RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS RUNNING 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN
WESTERN MARYLAND AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE.
ELSEWHERE...MOST AREAS WERE NEAR NORMAL...WITH THE DRIEST
CONDITIONS OBSERVED IN NELSON COUNTY...WHERE PRECIPITATION WAS
ONLY 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN SPOTS.

HOWEVER...SOME LONGER TERM DEFICITS REMAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND IN THE RAPIDAN RIVER BASIN...WHERE 90 DAY
PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE FIRST WEEK OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...THROUGH JANUARY 12TH...IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO HAVE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITH
A COLD SNAP EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

THE SECOND WEEK OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...THROUGH JANUARY
18TH...CURRENTLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS FOR JANUARY AND FOR JAN-FEB-MAR 2017
INDICATE EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...NEAR...OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT
FAVORING TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK
OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DOES NOT
NECESSARILY MEAN AN END TO THE OVERALL ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
WITH THAT SAID...THE DROUGHT OUTLOOK THROUGH MARCH 2017 DOES
INDICATE THAT THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO END BY THE END
OF MARCH.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
STREAM GAUGES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER RAINFALL LAST WEEK. THE TWO-WEEK AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS ARE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. UPCOMING RAIN EVENTS ARE LIKELY
TO KEEP THE STREAMS FROM FALLING TO THE LOWS EXPERIENCED IN THE
FALL.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED UPDATE TO THIS STATEMENT WILL BE ON THURSDAY
JANUARY 19TH 2017. AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SOONER IF THE DROUGHT
DEPICTION CHANGES SIGNIFICANTLY. IN THE INTERIM...WEEKLY UPDATES
TO THE DROUGHT MONITOR STATUS CAN BE FOUND AT THE US DROUGHT
MONITOR LINK BELOW OR ON OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WASHINGTON/DROUGHT.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES:

US DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
NWS DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/DROUGHT
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV
US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA`S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL
INFORMATION, THE USDA, STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATOLOGISTS, AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT
HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES, STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES, THE USDA, USACE, AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT, PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
43858 WEATHER SERVICE ROAD
STERLING, VA 20166
PHONE: 703-996-2200
EMAIL: LWXWEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

JE


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