Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6
000
FGUS73 KBIS 262119
ESFBIS
NDC001-007-011-015-021-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-047-051-
053-055-057-059-065-083-085-087-089-093-103-105-302200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
420 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2017


...FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

This probabilistic Flood and Water Resources outlook is for
the Missouri and James River basins of North Dakota and covers
the period of late July through late October.

The following message has four sections. The first provides some
text on the highlights of this outlook and conditions affecting
the local hydrology. The second section gives the current and
normal/historical risks of flooding as determined by the Ensemble
Streamflow Forecast model of the National Weather Service. The
third section gives the current probabilities for reaching flood
stage at the listed forecast locations. And finally, the fourth
section covers the risk of the river sites falling below the
listed stages.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...
Not surprisingly, the drought in North Dakota is reflected in the
following risks of reaching flood stage as the probabilities are
generally well below normal to near normal.

...Current Conditions...
Reservoirs remain near normal for this time of year due to an
abundance of moisture over the past couple of years. However,
rivers and small wetlands increasingly reflect the dry spring
and summer with below normal water levels. Soil moisture across
North Dakota as of late July is well below normal with both
native vegetation and crops showing varying levels of stress.

...Weather Outlook...
The near term 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks suggest a greater than
normal chance of above normal temperatures and favor belown
normal chances of precipitation. Looking out at the longer term
one-month and three-month outlooks, the outlooks favor an above
normal temperature pattern but have put the region in the equal
chance category for below normal, near normal, or above normal
rainfall.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


                 CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                     VALID PERIOD = 07/29/2017  - 10/27/2017

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree             11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:James River
Grace City          12.0   14.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lamoure             14.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cannonball River
Regent              22.0   24.0   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cannonball River
Breien              10.0   20.0   23.0 :   6   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
Linton              12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Muddy River
Williston           10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Missouri
Marmarth            18.0   23.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Missouri River
Medora              15.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Watford City        20.0   24.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Knife River
Manning             15.0   17.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Spring Creek
Zap                 14.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Knife River
Hazen               21.0   24.0   25.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Heart River
Mandan              17.0   23.0   28.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Apple Creek
Menoken             15.0   16.0   17.0 :   7   27    5   21   <5   10

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          VALID PERIOD = 07/29/2017  - 10/27/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree               5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.7    7.2
:James River
Grace City            4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.9    5.5    6.6
Lamoure               8.4    8.4    8.4    8.4    8.4    8.4    8.7
:Cannonball River
Regent                4.9    5.0    5.2    5.8    7.5    9.2   10.2
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh               0.7    0.7    1.0    2.3    5.2    6.1    6.7
:Cannonball River
Breien                2.6    2.7    3.2    4.6    7.8    9.2   10.2
:Beaver Creek
Linton                4.4    4.5    4.6    5.1    7.4    8.4    8.9
:Little Muddy River
Williston             4.4    4.4    4.4    4.5    4.8    5.7    6.5
:Little Missouri
Marmarth              0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    1.5    4.8    5.8
:Little Missouri River
Medora                1.6    1.6    1.6    1.7    2.8    6.3    7.2
Watford City         -1.0   -1.0   -1.0   -0.3    1.1    3.0    3.6
:Knife River
Manning               6.2    6.2    6.2    6.2    7.7    8.9    9.5
:Spring Creek
Zap                   4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    5.4    8.5   10.8
:Knife River
Hazen                 1.1    1.1    1.1    1.4    4.7    9.8   17.0
:Heart River
Mandan                0.0    0.0    0.1    0.1    2.2    6.8   10.1
:Apple Creek
Menoken               4.4    4.4    4.5    5.0    6.9   14.4   16.0

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          VALID PERIOD = 07/29/2017  - 10/27/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree               5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0
:James River
Grace City            4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2
Lamoure               7.6    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.4    7.4    7.4
:Cannonball River
Regent                4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh               0.3    0.3    0.3    0.3    0.3    0.3    0.3
:Cannonball River
Breien                2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4
:Beaver Creek
Linton                4.4    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3
:Little Muddy River
Williston             4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.3    4.3
:Little Missouri
Marmarth              0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9
:Little Missouri River
Medora                1.4    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3
Watford City         -1.1   -1.1   -1.1   -1.1   -1.1   -1.1   -1.1
:Knife River
Manning               6.2    6.2    6.2    6.1    6.1    6.1    6.1
:Spring Creek
Zap                   4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8
:Knife River
Hazen                 1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.0    1.0    1.0
:Heart River
Mandan               -0.8   -0.8   -0.8   -0.8   -0.8   -0.8   -0.8
:Apple Creek
Menoken               4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.1    4.1    4.1


These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/bis for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued toward the end of June.

$$

CJS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.