Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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Water Supply Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
439 PM MST Fri Mar 3 2017

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH...

...Spring Flood and water resources outlook for western Colorado
and eastern Utah number 2...

This is the second 2017 spring runoff outlook for western
Colorado and eastern Utah covering all or portions of the
Yampa/White...Upper Colorado...Duchesne...Green...
Gunnison...Dolores and San Juan River Basins.

The potential for spring 2017 flooding due to snowmelt is
considered high for the Gunnison and Dolores River Basins.
Flood potential is higher than normal in the Yampa/White, Upper
Colorado mainstem, and San Juan Basins of Colorado. For eastern
Utah including the Duchesne and Green River Basins the spring
runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is high. Currently the
Gunnison, Upper Dolores and Duchesne Rivers have the highest
threat of flooding.

Hydrologic models are currently forecasting above average peak
flows across western Colorado during the snowmelt runoff period.
50% exceedance forecasts for many sites are projected to be above
bankfull levels, with 10% exceedance forecasts above flood stage
at some of those locations.

Areas prone to flooding in the past may experience issues again
this year. There is also potential for a prolonged runoff season
in many of the basins.

Spring temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt runoff and
consequently the magnitude of peak flows. In normal
years...additional snowpack can accumulate in the mountains
through April. Heavy rainfall or unseasonably warm temperatures
during the snowmelt season can affect total runoff volume and peak
flow increasing the threat of flooding.


Observed Precipitation
----------------------

The water year started out dry for most locations in eastern Utah
and western Colorado. In late November storm systems started to
track over the region and bring much needed precipitation.
December storms brought precipitation averaging 140 to 180 percent
of normal for the month across the region.

January was even more productive with the storms tapping into the
very moist atmospheric river of the Eastern Pacific...bringing
well above normal precipitation to western Colorado and eastern
Utah. Many Mountain sites across western Colorado and eastern Utah
recorded the highest monthly preciptation for January. Many of
the rest are in the top 5 years for January precipitation.

February continued the trend in eastern Utah with much above
average mountain precipitation. The snow water equivalent in the
Duchesne River Basin is around 186 percent of median to date and
above the normal yearly peak. Southeastern Utah for February was
below monthly normals. For western Colorado it was a mix of
slightly below to slightly above normal mountain precipitation for
the month. Four locations in the northern Gunnison Basin ranged
from 170 to 210 percent above monthly normals. Some of the Upper
Colorado sites ranged from 120 to near 170 percent of normal while
other sites in the basin were below monthly normals. Overall the
basins averaged near monthly normal snowfall with slightly below
monthly normals for the Yampa and White river Basins.


Observed Snowpack
-----------------

Basin snowpack conditions...percent of median...for the period
October 1 2016 to March 2 2017:
-----------------------------------
In western Colorado...

Basin                   Snow Water
                        Equivalent
-----                   ----------
Yampa/White                122
Upper Colorado hdwrs       132
Gunnison                   152
Dolores/San Miguel         156
San Juan                   146
Roaring Fork               155
Animas                     148


In eastern Utah...

Basin                   Snow Water
                        Equivalent
-----                   ----------
Upper Green                179
Duchesne                   186
Southeastern Utah          147
----------------------------------

Basin Conditions (% Of Average) As Of March 1:
   *NOTE: Snow Is % Of Median

 Subbasin                  Feb    Oct-Feb  Mar1  Feb
                          Precip  Precip   Snow* Strmflw
----------------------    ------  -------  ----  --------
   Upper Colorado           95      125    130   115
   Gunnison                100      130    155   125
   Dolores/San Miguel      110      125    155   160
   San Juan                110      135    150   185
   Yampa/White              95      115    115   230


Reservoir Storage (KAF) As Of February 28:
                            C U R R E N T   Y R     1981-2010
                          Eom      % Of     % Of    Feb 28        Usable
                          Storage  Average  Capacityavg Storage   Capacity
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Colorado - Lake Granb|    398.0|    120|     81||      332.0|     490.3|
   Willow Ck - Willow Ck|      8.6|    105|     95||        8.2|       9.1|
   Williams Fork - Willi|     73.2|    117|     76||       62.4|      96.9|
   Muddy Ck - Wolford Mo|     50.5|    114|     77||       44.2|      66.0|
   Blue - Dillon Res    |    218.5|    100|     86||      219.3|     254.0|
   Blue - Green Mtn Res |     65.7|     89|     45||       73.5|     146.9|
   Homestake Ck - Homest|  -9999.0|    -99|    -99||       30.7|      43.0|
   Frying Pan - Ruedi Re|     66.1|     97|     65||       67.9|     102.0|
   Plateau Ck - Vega Res|     12.8|     97|     39||       13.2|      32.9|
   Taylor - Taylor Park |     69.0|    105|     65||       65.7|     106.2|
   Gunnison - Blue Mesa |    571.4|    118|     69||      482.2|     829.5|
   Gunnison - Morrow Poi|    102.3|     92|     87||      111.1|     117.0|
   Gunnison - Crystal Re|     16.0|    101|     91||       15.8|      17.5|
   Muddy Ck - Paonia Res|      2.5|     53|     15||        4.7|      16.7|
   Uncompahgre - Ridgway|     65.0|     94|     78||       69.4|      83.0|
   Dolores - Mcphee Res |    298.7|    110|     78||      272.3|     381.1|
   Los Pinos - Vallecito|     76.2|    120|     61||       63.5|     125.4|
   San Juan - Navajo Res|   1339.1|    104|     79||     1292.2|    1696.0|
   Florida - Lemon Res, |     21.0|    100|     53||       21.0|      39.8|
   Colorado - Lake Powel|  11217.0|     66|     46||    17054.6|   24322.0|


Streamflow Forecasts:
Developed:                 Mar 1 2017

Volume in 1000 acre-feet


Yampa/White Basins
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Yampa River
  Stagecoach Rsvr, abv     Apr-Jul     22    96     36     24   20.0   17.5     23
  Steamboat Springs        Apr-Jul    255    98    355    300    235    187    260
Elk River
  Milner, nr               Apr-Jul    375   117    480    415    345    275    320
Elkhead Ck
  Long Gulch, abv, Hayden  Apr-Jul     87   119    120     96     77     60     73
Yampa River
  Maybell, nr              Apr-Jul   1030   110   1420   1170    900    715    935
Little Snake River
  Slater, nr               Apr-Jul    185   119    250    205    167    134    156
  Dixon, nr                Apr-Jul    400   116    570    445    355    280    345
  Lily, nr                 Apr-Jul    430   125    595    485    375    280    345
Yampa River
  Deerlodge Park           Apr-Jul   1500   121   1980   1620   1300   1030   1240
White River
  Meeker, nr               Apr-Jul    270    96    380    295    245    205    280
  Watson, nr               Apr-Jul    290   104    425    325    270    220    280

Upper Colorado, Above Gunnison Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Colorado River
  Lake Granby, Granby, nr  Apr-Jul    260   118    355    290    230    190    220
Willow Ck
  Willow Ck Res, Granby,   Apr-Jul     70   149    110     80     60     47     47
Fraser River
  Winter Park              Apr-Jul     23   119     29     25   21.0   18.4   19.4
Williams Fork River
  Williams Fork Res, Pars  Apr-Jul    115   120    160    125    105     90     96
Blue River
  Dillon Res               Apr-Jul    195   120    235    210    175    150    163
  Green Mtn Res            Apr-Jul    330   120    420    350    300    255    275
Muddy Ck
  Wolford Mountain Reserv  Apr-Jul     57   106     83     65     43     33     54
Colorado River
  Kremmling, nr            Apr-Jul   1060   123   1490   1180   1000    825    860
Eagle River
  Gypsum, blo              Apr-Jul    360   107    490    400    300    265    335
Colorado River
  Dotsero, nr              Apr-Jul   1670   119   2270   1770   1520   1300   1400
Frying Pan River
  Ruedi Res, Basalt, nr    Apr-Jul    155   112    205    165    125    105    139
Roaring Fork River
  Glenwood Springs         Apr-Jul    790   114    990    820    690    610    690
Colorado River
  Glenwood Springs, blo    Apr-Jul   2450   116   3350   2670   2230   1950   2110
  Cameo, nr                Apr-Jul   2780   118   3800   3000   2500   2150   2360
Plateau Ck
  Cameo, nr                Apr-Jul    145   117    200    165    125    100    124

Gunnison Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Taylor River
  Taylor Park Res          Apr-Jul    128   129    165    145    117    105     99
  Almont                   Apr-Jul    210   135    270    235    185    165    155
East River
  Almont                   Apr-Jul    255   140    320    270    235    200    182
Gunnison River
  Gunnison, nr             Apr-Jul    520   141    665    560    480    415    370
Tomichi Ck
  Gunnison                 Apr-Jul    110   149    170    130     96     80     74
Lake Fork River
  Gateview                 Apr-Jul    145   118    195    165    130    104    123
Gunnison River
  Blue Mesa Res            Apr-Jul    970   144   1280   1040    870    770    675
  Morrow Point Res         Apr-Jul   1060   143   1370   1140    980    860    740
  Crystal Res              Apr-Jul   1190   143   1500   1270   1110    990    835
Muddy Ck
  Paonia Res, Bardine, nr  Mar-Jun    115   120    155    125    100     85     96
  Paonia Res, Bardine, nr  Apr-Jul    115   119    155    125    100     85     97
NF Gunnison River
  Somerset, nr             Apr-Jul    345   117    465    380    300    260    295
Surface Ck
  Cedaredge                Apr-Jul     21   125     28     24   18.0   14.0   16.8
Uncompahgre River
  Ridgway Res              Apr-Jul    118   117    160    130    107     84    101
  Colona                   Apr-Jul    158   115    225    175    140    110    137
  Delta                    Apr-Jul    133   118    205    151    120     79    113
Gunnison River
  Grand Junction, nr       Apr-Jul   1950   132   2700   2200   1800   1570   1480

Dolores Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Dolores River
  Dolores                  Apr-Jul    370   151    475    400    340    280    245
  Mcphee Res               Apr-Jul    440   149    580    475    400    330    295
San Miguel River
  Placerville, nr          Apr-Jul    155   121    205    170    140    109    128
Dolores River
  Cisco, nr                Apr-Jul    800   142   1090    880    735    560    565

Upper Colorado, Confluence
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Colorado River
  Cisco, nr                Apr-Jul   5500   124   7300   6000   5000   4200   4440

San Juan Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs           Apr-Jul    245   114    325    275    210    175    215
  Carracas, nr             Apr-Jul    440   116    595    495    375    310    380
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  Apr-Jul     65   120     83     74     57     48     54
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Apr-Jul     75   115     97     86     65     55     65
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr              Apr-Jul    235   112    335    265    200    168    210
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield  Apr-Jul    225   116    295    240    190    157    194
San Juan River
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   Apr-Jul    840   114   1190    915    690    550    735
Florida River
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr   Apr-Jul     65   118     93     73     53     39     55
Animas River
  Durango                  Apr-Jul    515   124    685    605    465    355    415
San Juan River
  Farmington               Apr-Jul   1310   119   1780   1420   1120    880   1100
La Plata River
  Hesperus                 Apr-Jul     33   143     42     36     29     25     23
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul   1320   120   1840   1450   1130    875   1100
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr               Apr-Jul     43   139     59     47     37     28     31

Eastern Utah - Green River Basin

                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Green River
  Flaming Gorge Res, Flam  Apr-Jul   2260   231   2850   2480   1970   1840    980
White River
  Watson, nr               Apr-Jul    290   104    425    325    270    220    280
Big Brush Ck
  Vernal, nr, Red Fleet R  Apr-Jul     27   129     37     29   24.0   18.9     21
Ashley Ck
  Vernal, nr               Apr-Jul     68   136     91     73     57     48     50
Whiterocks River
  Whiterocks, nr           Apr-Jul     85   157    106     89     73     60     54
Uinta River
  Neola, nr                Apr-Jul    125   169    154    136    115     93     74
Duchesne River
  Myton                    Apr-Jul    670   203    830    760    615    520    330
  Randlett, nr             Apr-Jul    800   208   1020    910    700    595    385
White River
  Blo Tabbyune Ck, Soldie  Apr-Jul     37   239     48     42     33     26   15.5
Green River
  Green River, Ut          Apr-Jul   5000   169   6550   5850   4540   4080   2960

San Juan Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul   1320   120   1840   1450   1130    875   1100

Lake Powell
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Colorado River
  Lake Powell, Glen Cyn D  Apr-Jul  10400   145  13800  11700   9000   7600   7160

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.


Climate Outlook
---------------

The Climate Prediction Center outlook for the three month period
of March through May 2017 indicates a better chance of higher than
normal temperatures and better chances of below normal
precipitation for most of the region. Northeast Utah and northwest
Colorado have equal chances of either above, below or normal
precipitation.

It should be emphasized that snow accumulation and conditions could
change before the runoff begins.

Changing hydrometeorological conditions can have a significant
impact on water supply and peak forecasts. Additional products will be
issued as conditions evolve.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/gjt.
For detailed flow forecasts visit www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

Data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service...the
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center...and the Climate Prediction
Center were used to produce this product.


$$

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